Uhuru and Raila and the unremitting rivalry for their motherland’s soul

“Our family didn’t even have enough time to enjoy the vice-presidency.” That was the plaintive lament of Ruth Odinga when mobs protested her and her brother Oburu’s gubernatorial runs in Kisumu and Siaya respectively in 2013.

Ruth was alluding to her father Jaramogi’s short stint as VP from 1964 to 1966. Yet she was also lamenting her community’s seeming lack of empathy with her family’s long tribulations.

Uhuru Kenyatta, of course, “enjoyed” in full his father Jomo’s presidency throughout his childhood and early adulthood. The Kenyattas loomed unchallenged as the Establishment while the Odingas were the anti-Establishment.

DETAINED

Incoming President Daniel arap Moi was all set to rehabilitate Odinga until the latter made some rash comment about Kenyatta that saw the door of the Establishment firmly shut again in his face. Thereafter, the Odingas had no choice but to politically operate outside the system.

The aftermath of the 1982 coup attempt saw Jaramogi confined to house arrest while his son Raila got detained. Reportedly, the senior Odinga met and made an impassioned plea to Moi to spare his son the noose by not charging him with treason.

Come multi-partyism, the Odingas made a more visible contribution to the struggle than the Kenyattas, who opted to latch onto Mwai Kibaki’s Democratic Party. (Uhuru was the exception; he stuck with Kenneth Matiba’s Ford Asili).

Jaramogi was leading arguably the largest modern mass movement in Kenya – the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford).

REBELS

When it split, Odinga’s Ford-Kenya faction had the heaviest concentration of intelligentsia of any political party in Kenya.

Moi long considered the Odingas and Raila in particular to be rebels. He did not much care where they strayed as long as they did not threaten the security of the State.

The Kenyattas were different. Moi was uncomfortable with their dalliance with the Opposition. As it were, the Kenyattas were left adrift with the Opposition loss in 1992. That is when Moi found an opening.

Moi had been plotting a grand strategic move in Kanu that would be the mother of all stratagems.

His plan was for a Big-Tent Kanu that would embrace all, including the discontented Luo and the Kikuyu, who felt deliberately marginalised since the early 80s.

By bringing everybody “home” to Kanu, Moi was confident he would secure a magnificent legacy for himself.

BETRAYAL

Raila was the obvious bait to woo the Luo. It worked brilliantly when his NDP party was co-opted by Kanu. The snag was that Raila believed Moi was working for him to be his successor when, in fact, he wasn’t.

Unbeknown to all but very few, Moi’s focus was on Uhuru with an eye to a bigger catch – the Kikuyu. When Raila realised the full extent of the plan, it came as a personal betrayal to him.

The story of Uhuru’s mixed fortunes in Kanu and Raila’s rocky alliance with Narc is well known.

One of the very rare instances of Uhuru-Raila co-operation was during the 2005 referendum campaign. Nothing worked again between the two, with the 2007 campaign and its outcome, which saw Uhuru indicted by the ICC, being especially toxic.

Under the nusu mkate government, it is said Uhuru would intentionally ignore ministerial meetings convened by the Prime Minister. It is unlikely Raila has forgotten those slights.

DEFEAT

Ahead of the 2013 General Election, Raila was said to be not only sure of winning, but confident that Kibaki would back him.

It was a second betrayal when Kibaki kept off his campaign. The President at first equivocated about supporting Uhuru but, towards the end, he was solidly there behind him.

After a second defeat at the hands of Uhuru on August 8, 2017 and a fourth showdown that Raila boycotted on October 26, the rivalry has escalated. Jaramogi never sought to oust Kenyatta, merely to stand up to him.

His son has brazenly said he will unseat Jomo’s son, but from a very weak base. It is a battle Uhuru is ready for, just like his dad.

Warigi is a socio-political commentator [email protected]