With the kind of situation in country, it may be time for Uhuru-Raila talks

Raila Odinga has proved his point. That without him a national election is problematic. He has ensured four counties – Kisumu, Siaya, Migori and Homa Bay – had no repeat election.

That is what is called power on October 26.

One, of course, can look the other way and say Odinga’s influence was in the four counties, while everywhere else everything went smoothly.

Yet it didn’t quite follow the script as places like Kawangware and Mathare, where he has supporters, were hot zones.

SUPPORTERS

Jubilee supporters don’t understand their adversary well. Nor, should I say, do Raila’s. The former believe the thumping victory they won in an election which was boycotted by Raila is the end of the story.

No. An election did take place despite Raila’s chest-thumping that none would happen. The 7-million plus voters who participated were not playing football.

An inkling to what Raila wants is given in one of the statements he recently made. He said his goal was to remove Uhuru Kenyatta from power. Full stop.

When asked how he would do this, he spoke of economic boycotts.

Some of the companies he mentioned are Safaricom and Shell. This, I believe, is a highly ineffective method.

RESISTANCE MOVEMENT

Just factor in a behemoth like M-Pesa, which even Nasa leaders and supporters rely on. But Raila soon let the real cat out of the bag.

On October 25, when he was to make a major national statement, he said Nasa would be transformed into a national resistance movement.

This is a major step outside the law. It means, effectively, that you form an armed militia and become an outlaw.

That was what Uganda’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) was when it was fighting in the bush.

It shot to power in 1986 against a weak soldier called Tito Okello, who was handicapped by extremely complicated forces around him.

MUSEVENI

Museveni was never keen on negotiating. He wanted to buy time. Ironically, Museveni’s relationship with Raila is believed to be chilly. But he is a realist. He will do what he believes to be in Uganda’s best interest.

Still, how do you finance a militia, besides getting recruits? Maybe the recruits won’t be a problem, but where will you fight? Where will be the operational battleground? Migingo?

Museveni had the advantage of some support from fellow comrades in Mozambique and Tanzania, but the going was tough.

The Kenya National Resistance Movement will simply be a dead end.

NARRATIVES

Raila comes up with compelling narratives, like that of Canaan. He tells his followers they should be there already, only that one Ezra Chiloba locked the door and took the key.

Chiloba has gone away for a short period. He will be back. Hopefully with the key.

The legalese surrounding Uhuru’s inauguration is a settled matter. Barring a major event, he should be declared presidential winner.

The 7.3 million votes compared with the 8.2 million votes he got on August 8 is something Nasa will go to town with. And with good reason.

Indeed, the big question is legitimacy, and this is where the numbers kick in.

RAILA AMBITION

With Raila having boycotted the election, Uhuru’s suppressed numbers, though far superior to the Opposition leader’s, are an issue that Nasa will keep raising.

I recall the defeated Cord leadership steered clear of Uhuru’s first inauguration in 2013. They opted to lick their wounds somewhere in South Africa.

What Raila is priming the country is for the removal of Uhuru by any means. Nobody should fool themselves that the just-concluded election dims this ambition. It only makes it burn more.

For some reason Raila has a personal disdain for Uhuru. I don’t know why. Could it be Uhuru’s upbringing which rankles with Raila? His privilege? This is not just personal.

Religious leaders have renewed their calls for talks between Uhuru and Raila. The President has hitherto been very wary of this proposal.

But with the fluid situation across the country, it may be time to talk.

Warigi is a socio-political commentator [email protected]