Looking at the options on the table, one is left wondering which way for Kenya

Mr Raila Odinga is a lighthouse to his myriad supporters in Kenya’s oft dark and turbulent political sea.

To his legion opponents, he is an iceberg that could sink the good ship Kenya. At 72 and having just been dealt a bad hand at the polls yet again, how will he rise to power?

First, it is highly unlikely there will be any meaningful dialogue about the state of Kenya’s democracy and elections, let alone about sharing power between the government and National Super Alliance (Nasa) of Mr Odinga & Co. A looksee into recent history is instructive.

CORD

In 2014 and 2015 Nasa’s precursor, the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord), sought dialogue with the government on rampant insecurity chiefly occasioned by Al-Shabaab, the Somalia-based terrorists that blindingly transitioned from a periodic coastal threat to ubiquitous bomber.

Then governing Jubilee Alliance held that President Kenyatta was firmly in charge and could not share or discuss sensitive security matters with those outside government.

In fact, government argued, all the President needed to fight terror was new sweeping legislation which was enacted.

Then, President and Deputy William Ruto were greenhorns in their high offices and saddled with criminal cases at The Hague and facing rising grand corruption. But they could not countenance conferencing with the former Prime Minister on such weighty matters.

Will they now? Entrenched and relishing power, they plan to keep Jubilee Party in charge beyond 2027. Ominously, President and Deputy and Mr Odinga & Co have just emerged from the filthiest presidential campaign ever, whose initial and repeat results stand disputed.

RIVALS

Second, governing parties relish stealing ideas from the opposition and running with them than sit down with rivals, discuss their thoughts and agree on implementing them.

Why are governments loath to be seen to credit rivals with a solution to anything?

Because people will give credit to, and remember, the implementer of an idea than the originator of it.

Implementers will claim credit for ideas and their execution. In political terms, the electorate knows only the implementer and government will always want to be known as the implementer.

Third, Mr Ruto’s hatred for Mr Odinga is legendary. In 2015, he described Mr Odinga as a miser who could not even donate his mucus to a tree. He has consistently refused to speak Mr Odinga’s name, only referring to him as yule jamaa (that fellow) or jamaa wa vitendawili (riddle-bound fellow).

The President has branded Mr Odinga a madman; blamed him for the post-election violence of 2007 and labelled him a sore poll loser.

CRISIS

On Tuesday, Mr Odinga called President and Deputy megalomaniacs and had previously tagged them vote thieves running an illegitimate government.

Fourth, governments do not concede to facing crises of any kind. Crisis? What crisis? That is the iconic January 11, 1979 headline that captured James Callaghan’s inattention to the public crises sneaking up on him and ultimately costing him the premiership in Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory.

So, if dialogue or crises will not usher Mr Odinga into government, what are his options for leading Kenya? Force a new election through the Supreme Court or civil disobedience campaign? Or, as Kenya’s priesthood suggests, become PM through a change of the Constitution?

One, clergy are profoundly wrong. The crisis facing Kenya is not how to accommodate Mr Odinga in government because he lost an election nor is winner-take-all elections the cause of Kenya’s polling crisis.

The crisis is, as Mr Odinga maintains, poll rigging in 2007, 2013 and twice now in 2017.

JUDICIARY

Two, if President and Deputy cannot dialogue with Mr Odinga, they cannot help make him PM. And, remember in 2005 Bomas rejected the premiership; in 2008 it was forced on Kenyans to prevent civil war; and in 2010 Mr Odinga led Kenyans in choosing presidential over parliamentary democracy.

Three, the Supreme Court, which annulled the President’s August victory on September 1, could not raise a quorum on October 25 to hear prayers to stop the repeat presidential poll.

That conjures up a frighteningly swift shift in the face of a retaliatory scorched earth policy against the Judiciary by the Executive.

Now because it has to be in his hands, resistance may be either Mr Odinga’s road of choice or roll of the dice.

It is long, winding and fraught with peril, especially because it has the slippery slopes of violence and usurpation for company in close proximity. It’s a long shot at power, but it bears renewal for the opposition. 

Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics