Home advantage nearly always pays for teams

Now that the international tournament qualifiers are over, Premiership teams can get back to the serous business of winning points.

And as they do so, they will be mindful of a curious phenomenon in football: the advantage of the home side.

Two games before the international break illustrated this. Manchester United had what seemed an easy game against Premiership new boys Norwich.

In fact, the game was a long way from being a stroll for Sir Alex Ferguson’s men. Indeed, Paul Lambert’s side, devoid of stars but operating as an effective and well organised unit, came close to earning a point at Old Trafford.

In the end Anderson’s second-half opener and a regulatory second was the difference between the sides. You could hear the collective sigh of relief when the deadlock was broken.

And yet it’s a wonder why Red Devils fans worry so much. The last time their team lost at home was in April 2010, with Chelsea the visitors – and this season they have already seen off the challenge of the men in blue from London.

The game against Norwich was not a victory against the run of play but a win that looked for a long time like a draw until the force for a home win intervened.

Something similar happened that weekend in North London. It was thought Tottenham, flying high and on the back of a crushing 3-0 win over Liverpool, would beat Arsenal by a considerable margin. In fact, the Gunners matched their local rivals for much of the game.

Tottenham’s opening goal had a hint of handball in the build-up, and Arsenal scored a good equaliser after half-time.

Perhaps the best indication of the game was the fact that Tottenham’s outstanding player was not one in their strong forward line but a defender – Ledley King.

Just as Manchester United fans were worrying unduly, so were Arsenal fans raising their hopes unrealistically given the team’s recent away record.

Arsenal have had a horrific run away from the Emirates, losing to some unlikely sides. The latest of these defeats had come in their previous trip to Blackburn.

So it was no surprise when Kyle Walker’s long-range strike as the game entered its later stages gave Tottenham victory.

The results of both games are consistent with that between the two sides at Old Trafford earlier this season.

The home side were exuberant and confident in front of their fans while the visitors were nervy and error-prone.

And yet when the reverse fixture was played at the end of last season, Arsenal won and were in control.

How can it be so different?

Home advantage must play a part in this. Playing on your own ground has many positives: the pitch is familiar (pitches in the Premiership are of varying sizes; some are near the spectators while in others the crowd can seem a long way away).

Familiarity is important to footballers. Many have a routine on match day that they do not like disturbed: what they eat, where they sit in the dressing room, which part of the pitch they run out on to, and so on.

Easier to follow routine at home

It’s much easier to follow this routine in your home stadium where everything is as it should be. And the home side is often favoured.

The Emirates was specially designed for Arsenal by Arsene Wenger, down to the shape of the dressing room and the layout of the players’ seats.

This favouritism is often imagined to extend to treatment from referees. Fans can give lots of examples of a home side that never suffers a penalty against it or receives a favourable decision in the dying minutes of a game to enable them to rescue a point.

It may be that referees do lean towards the home side on occasion, but this isn’t always the case. Indeed, sometimes they can go the other way.

In the recent Merseyside derby, a game when the referee must have been aware of the passionate crowd, this didn’t stop the harsh sending-off of Everton’s midfielder Jack Rodwell. Everton were the home side.

What must have an effect is the attitude of the crowd. No one likes a hostile working environment, and it can’t be much fun facing an arena with 40,000 or more fans screaming for the opposition.

You can see this most clearly when a side makes the trip to Turkey in the Champions League. It’s not the thought of Turkish food that has overseas footballers worried – a late-night kebab features high on the list of many a player’s favourite food.

But they are concerned about the reception they will get, not just during the game but also on the team bus going to the ground from the hotel.

Turkish fans are as passionate as they come and many a side has been relieved to leave Istanbul with a result that is less than would be expected given the teams’ strengths.

Statisticians have reviewed every international game that has ever been played (some people clearly have too much time on their hands).

The conclusion is that home advantage in internationals (where the opposition are not just in a different city but a different country, often with a funny language) is worth a goal’s advantage on average for the home side.

I’ve no idea how they work this out, but it sounds convincing. And the same seems to be true for club games. Whether it is the familiar surroundings, the favouritism of the referee or the noise of the crowd, something does mean home sides win more often than not.

And you can expect the same to be true this weekend and probably for the rest of the season.

When not thinking about football, Guy Maughfling (Facebook Group: “Premiership Chat”) is a director in PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Advisory business in East Africa. The views expressed here are his own.