Raila, Mudavadi and their love-hate political relationship

Love and hate. That is the political norm that has characterised the careers of opposition bigwigs Raila Odinga and Musalia Mudavadi over the past two decades. And while they cruised during the last General Election on a love note, today the status of their relationship hangs in the hate zone.

Their current bone of contention is the recent attempted ouster of Moses Wetang’ula as Ford-Kenya party leader, which Mudavadi claims “was orchestrated by a leader of a National Super Alliance (Nasa) member party” – an apparent reference to the former prime minister. The claim, last Sunday, was immediately rebuffed by Edwin Sifuna, secretary-general of the Odinga-led Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), who accused Mudavadi of political cowardice.

On Friday, however, the Amani National Congress (ANC) leader openly fingered Odinga as the “divisive leader” who is “destroying other people’s parties”: “Hasn’t the Luhya community banked with Raila since 2007? And what have they got in return except for ridicule and demeaning treatment? It is public knowledge that I have supported others more times without any reciprocity, except that they unleash auxiliary neophyte officials to insult and ridicule me,” Mudavadi opened up to the Sunday Nation.

And therein lies a politically loaded statement that aptly summarises the underlying bad blood between Mudavadi and Odinga.

Queried about their on-and-off relations, Mudavadi explained he was not alone in the jinx where the common denominator was the former prime minister: “That question why he is unable to keep partners beyond an election circle should be directed at him because the train of his betrayals is littered everywhere”.

Reached for comment, the former PM declined to comment on Mudavadi’s assertions, with his spokesman Dennis Onyango curtly responding: “I am sorry, we are not having this discussion with you about Musalia.”

However, Devolution Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, who is close to both Odinga and Mudavadi, explains that the trouble between the two started with the former PM’s parallel swearing-in ceremony in January 2018: “Raila feels utterly betrayed by co-principals, including Mudavadi, who deserted him, while Mudavadi feels slighted by Raila, who two months later proceeded to have a Handshake with President Kenyatta. They are sulking and remain unhappy with each other.”

Mudavadi, however, maintains his differences with Odinga are not personal and that their relationship “cannot be reduced to such ridiculous simplicity”. Stating he does not harbour any political animosity or revenge motives towards anyone, the former deputy prime minister claims he is a target of political hate because he has refused to play ball this time round.

“I have stated boldly that I’m not supporting anyone anymore and I’m determined to meet anyone at the ballot. That’s why some other acolytes must be found to ride on and get sponsored to ostensibly cut me down,” says the ANC leader.

According to Wamalwa, however, this is precisely where the former Sabatia MP gets it “all wrong”. Mudavadi, opines the CS, is missing out on a lifetime opportunity because of indecisiveness, selfishness and fear of competition: “Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper party leader) has this time round stated, early enough, where his political stakes are, so has Kanu’s Gideon Moi and of course Raila. But my brother Mudavadi is still exhibiting lukewarm support for the BBI (Building Bridges Initiative) and blowing hot and cold. I’m afraid this dilly-dallying will cost him heavily.”

Wamalwa recounts the many times he has personally pleaded with “my brother” to join “the winning forces”, to no avail.

Although Mudavadi and Wamalwa are in agreement over the aspect of unity, they are seriously conflicted on their interests and approach. According to some, Mudavadi is a victim of Luhya leaders who are fixated more on tribal pride and chauvinism, including the urge “to teach a political lesson” to their Luo neighbours (who have for long dominated them politically), than working on a winning strategy to State House.

“There is no doubt that if Luhyas congregated around their own, the bargaining power of our community would be highly elevated. Otherwise we will continue being tossed around by political players from other communities preying on our numbers,” observes Mathias Ogama.

According to the politician, who gave former Vice-President Moody Awori a run for his money in the 2002 Funyula parliamentary elections, members of the Luhya community voted for Mudavadi in the 2013 presidential poll on the account of “owefwe”, meaning our own, and not because they believed he would win the race. And those who voted for Odinga, he observes, did so with the knowledge “they were placing their vote to a winning outfit”.

“In politics, we vote to take power and unless Mudavadi works on a convincing strategy that will project him as a leading contender, he will blame us again for abandoning him because nobody will go north, south, east or west for his sake,” reacts Ogama, who is a quantity surveyor.

ANC deputy leader Ayub Savula concurs and instead calls on his party boss to engage Odinga to hand over the regional leadership baton to him instead of confronting him. According to the Lugari MP, the Luhya have invested heavily in their Luo neighbours and “we cannot just throw away such political investment out of anger or pride”.

Savula wants Mudavadi “to take advantage of the rift within Jubilee to push through his succession plans”. However, he regrets Mudavadi may blow up his chances of becoming President owing to his refusal to stay close to his friend, the President.

According to Wamalwa, it is because of Mudavadi’s apparent rigidity and “the people’s realisation that he is taking the Luhya nation nowhere” that have persuaded political leaders in Western Kenya to look for alternative leadership and avenues to political power.

Wamalwa reveals of an elaborate strategy to rally the entire Western Kenya, including members of other communities who reside in the region, behind Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and himself, with a view to supporting President Kenyatta and former PM Odinga’s BBI and Handshake deal.

“This explains why we have had consultative meetings with Sabaot and Teso elders. We are also reaching out to our neighbours - the Kalenjin with whom we share a border in Kakamega and Trans Nzoia counties and the Luo along the Busia and Kakamega county borders. We want to rope in everyone in our neighbourhood and those who live among us – and I can firmly confirm to you that this is the side that will form the next government and we do not want our friends and neighbours left out,” says the CS.

Mudavadi told the Sunday Nation on Friday, though, that he was not ready to board such an outfit. He decried the state where politics had been reduced to a game for trickery, where one gets into a contractual obligation knowing they have no intention of keeping their part of the bargain.

The Odinga-Mudavadi love-hate affair dates back to March 2002, when Odinga officially folded his party, National Development Party (NDP), to join the then ruling party, Kanu, where Mudavadi was a staunch member. The two parted ways when Odinga exited Kanu a couple of months later and successfully supported Mwai Kibaki’s presidential bid in the National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).

The two reunited in 2005 during the constitutional referendum, and vied in the 2007 polls, with Mudavadi as Odinga’s running mate in ODM. The two subsequently served in the Grand Coalition Government as DPM and PM. In 2013 they went their separate ways again and unsuccessfully vied for the presidency, only for them to reunite in Nasa in 2016. Odinga and Mudavadi are back to their political ping-pong again and so far indications are they will approach the 2022 polls separately.

“As for teaming up, you never say never in life. Actually, Raila and I have not spoken about any differences that may exist between us. Perhaps if we spoke, boldly and truthfully, we may find there is really nothing substantial between us other than ambitious interlopers and busybodies soiling our relationship,” reacts Mudavadi.