To reopen country’s economy or not is the question

To re-open the economy or not? That is the question that is troubling experts as fatigued Kenyans hurtle to more than 70 days of the measures put in place by the government to stop the spread of coronavirus.

President Kenyatta is expected to deliver an address to the nation that will answer the question. If he allows the economy to open, how should it be done?

Should we, with his Executive fiat, open the economy wide as was the situation before the first Covid-19 case was reported on March 13? Already, a huge section of Kenyans has thrown caution to the wind and is back to daily routine.

Should such a process be progressive? Should it start off with less sensitive — in this case less populated sectors — and move slowly to more sensitive and populated ones?

Ministry of Interior bureaucrats believe the country is in a difficult position of assuaging the interests of a population fatigued by the containment measures against spiralling numbers of coronavirus infections.

“We’re between a rock and hard place,” Interior Principal Secretary Karanja Kibicho said in response to the pressure to reopen the economy when the extension ends on Saturday.

“We’re divided on whether to open and risk the gains we have made in combating the disease.”

Some 123 new coronavirus cases were reported yesterday, bringing the total in the country to 2,340.

Seventy eight patients have died while 592 have been discharged from isolation centres.

The number of infections has been rising exponentially since the mid last month, negating the whole question of reopening the economy.

However, the economic situation of a majority of Nairobi residents would call for a balance between the contrasting situations. Many business are operating below optimum. Some are closing, raising the spectre of possible job losses.

Signs that Kenyans are eager to resume their ordinary lives are clear. Traffic gridlocks and packed restaurants have become common in Nairobi.

Some churches have finalised plans and are expect to resume services shortly, but under tight guidelines developed by the Ministries of Health and Interior.

Dr Kibicho said discussions on what should happen are still ongoing, but expressed doubts that the government could fully open the country.

Dr Mativo Mwau, a scientist at the Kenya Medical Research Institute (Kemri), says the country cannot reopen when coronavirus cases are rising. He warned that this could trigger a second wave that could be more dangerous.

“We must be sure that the risks of infections have been minimised before we think of reopening,” he said on Wednesday.

Testing samples has been hampered by a shortage of reagents.

With testing facing challenges, the country may not know the full extent of the infection rate.

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka Thursday called for caution as the country awaits President Kenyatta’s direction, “before we can say it is business as usual.”

He added that opening without expert advice could be the biggest tragedy that the country cannot bear.

“We need advice for I’m not sure we can go back to our normal lives. We have had many problems with Covid-19 and it’s too soon to get on with life as if nothing never happened.”

The options the government is exploiting include retaining the tough containment measures in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale and Mandera. Nairobi and Mombasa counties have reported the highest number of coronavirus cases in the country.

The curfew could be extended, but with reduced hours. In Nairobi, the start of curfew could be extended to either 9 or 10pm to give small businesses sufficient time to operate.