Deep state is a conspiracy theory and scapegoat of election losers

On August 11, 2020, Deputy President William Ruto opened a can of worms when he alleged that the “deep state” or “system” might torpedo his 2022 presidential bid. Responding to the claim, Interior Principal Secretary Karanja Kibicho loudly wondered what deep state is, dismissing it as part of a long history of conspiracy theories.

He is right. Deep state is a paradox. As linguist Geoffrey Nunberg avers, the term— and, one must add, the intentions of its user.

The Janus-faced nature of the deep state, however, has tended to be lost in the din of conspiracy theories, fake news and populism that characterise our anarchic world. Globally, the use of deep state has swung from admiration to condemnation.

Fighting corruption

At the one level, the deep state has a pristine tinge and aura. All modern democracies need it as a crucial force in fighting corruption and cronyism, upholding the rule of law and defending the democratic space. Indeed, the rise of the deep state in advanced democracies like America ended the dark period of cronyism and nepotism where presidents before 1871 could select federal employees, all of whom served at their pleasure.

In our times, with the rise of populist governments across America and Europe, career civil servants acting in a non-conspiratorial manner have become the white knights of democracy, defending public good and the state itself against populist leaders obstructing or subverting policies.

It is in the light of this that Prof Jon Michaels prefers the term “administrative state” or the career bureaucracy of government now challenging the efforts of populists to “deconstruct” the public service.

But beyond this rendition of the deep state as a protector of democracy, this stratum is also vilified as an anti-democratic force. Most of those invoking the term seek to conjure up the idea of Illuminati as the real power behind the curtains of democracy — consisting of a mixed bag of spooks, criminals, military leaders, businesspeople, civil servants and diplomats.

In our times, the concept has become a catch-phrase that reflects the twists and turns in geopolitics. From the 1990s, it was used to refer to the secretive Turkish network, derin devlet (deep state).

The American press used the term in the context of resurgent Cold War era geopolitics to disparage Russia, Turkey and other “totalitarian regimes”.

Historian Alfred McCoy traces the popular use of the term in America to the September 11 terrorist attacks, which greatly enhanced the power of the intelligence community that emerged as the “fourth branch of the US government” — alongside the judiciary, legislature and in many ways almost autonomous from the executive.

But it is the rise of right wing populism in the West that has increased conspiracy theories around the “deep state”. After his election, Trump blamed an “unholy alliance” of American bureaucrats and diplomats for resistance to his policies.

It is in this conspiratorial sense that Ruto has used the “deep state” and “system” interchangeably to refer to government bureaucrats and diplomats. He has vowed to fight and defeat them in 2022.

This was the second time in five that Kenya’s second most powerful state officer is accusing the “deep state” of trying to take him down.

In March during the burial of Sergeant Kipyegon Kenei, a policeman guarding his office who was murdered in the wake of investigations into a Sh40 billion fake arms deal, he alleged that the officer had been killed by people who were fighting him (Ruto) politically.

Clearly, Ruto was responding to a public comment last month by Raila Odinga’s brother, Oburu, to the effect that the opposition chief was assured of winning the 2022 presidential polls because this time he has the support of “the system”.

On August 12, 2020, Kibicho dismissed Ruto's claim that there exists a deep state seeking to block his ascension to power. Deep states, he argued, only exist in totalitarian systems, not in democratic societies like Kenya. There is no deep state. The government “is structured in a (democratic) manner that everyone can see.”

On August 13, 2020, Odinga also dismissed Ruto’s claims that a deep State was seeking to block his ascension to the presidency. He based his response on the view that deep states are located in governments, not opposition.

New conspiracy theories

The real faces of the deep state are the president and his deputy. As part of the system, Ruto is squarely at the apex of Kenya’s deep state. Because he holds no position in the government, Raila cannot conceivably be in the deep state.

Ruto’s deep state claim has inspired new conspiracy theories in social and mainstream media. One is the allegation that Ruto has panicked, sensing defeat as his rivals coalesce around the “handshake”. Two, by heaping blame on the deep state, Ruto was preparing his supporters to reject the 2022 presidential poll results.

According to Nyeri Town MP Wambugu Ngunjiri, Ruto “is trying to build a siege mentality among his followers so that if he doesn't make it, he says the system rigged him out and then that can be a catalyst for violence as it happened in 2007.”

Ruto is craftily using this construct as a wedge issue pitting him as the underdog against the mighty powers that be. It is a ploy to energise his base and keep the voter convinced that their candidate was denied victory by the deep state.

Deep state is just another conspiracy theory and a likely scapegoat for election losers. But the fake populism soaring it also carries the seeds of electoral instability.