Addis-Egypt tussle over Nile waters is a test for African unity

This prediction is almost coming true as tension soars between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over the Nile River waters.

Since 2011, when Ethiopia embarked on building its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the three Nile Basin countries have been at loggerheads.

The tension has reached a fever-pitch as Ethiopia prepares to fill the dam on the Blue Nile in the Benishangul-Gumuz region, which is now 76 per cent complete.

At the heart of the dispute is the time frame and pace of filling up the 74 billion cubic metre reservoir behind the dam. The conflict escalated when satellite images on July 12, 2020 showed the reservoir filling behind the mega dam.

Africa could do more to own and resolve the dispute in the spirit of “African solutions to African problems.” However, the conflict over Ethiopia’s mega dam reveals how rising nationalism is splitting Africa, eroding its peace and security architecture and global influence.

AFRICAN CONSENSUS

Last month, Djibouti defied the African consensus and launched a parallel bid for the United Nations Security Council non-permanent seat, won by the AU official candidate, Kenya. And this month, Africa’s three candidates stampeded for the World Trade Organisation Director-General left by Brazilian Roberto Azevêdo, who will step down on August 31, 2020.

The dispute over Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam, potentially one of the most the largest hydropower plants in Africa, signifies a clash of economic interests and nationalism involving two pivotal African states.

Now standing at 560 metres and its 16 turbines projected to generate 6,450 megawatts of hydroelectric power, the $4.5 billion mega dam will more than double Ethiopia's current capacity. One of the fastest growing economies, Ethiopia is also one of the most power-starved on the planet.

The dam will provide electricity to over 65 million Ethiopians who have no access to the grind.

Not surprisingly, the project has been described as Ethiopia’s “certificate out of poverty”. Addis Ababa views it as a lifeline to bring millions of Ethiopians out of poverty.

In contrast, Egypt views the dam as an economic and security threat. Its top diplomats described the dam as “a threat of potentially existential proportions”.

MONOPOLY

“Egypt is the Nile, and the Nile is Egypt.” Perhaps this statement by the Greek historian Herodotus, who wrote, some 2,500 years ago, has provided the ideological basis for Egypt’s control over the use of the Nile.

It has based its monopoly over the Nile on two colonial-era treaties: the 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and the 1959 Nile Water Agreement between Egypt and Sudan. The treaties allocated 55.5 billion cubic metres and 18.5 billion cubic metres of the Nile’s waters to Egypt and Sudan, respectively.

In 1970, Egypt completed the Aswan High Dam, the world's largest embankment dam built across the Nile in Aswan.

Today, Egypt controls 66 per cent of the Nile waters, compared with 22 per cent for Sudan and 0 per cent for Ethiopia, with 12 per cent lost to evaporation. The Nile remains the lifeblood for Egypt, providing over 90 percent of fresh water supply to its 102 million people.

Egyptian rulers have threatened to go to war over the Nile waters. In the 1970s, its leader Anwar Sadat threatened war if the Ethiopian dam was built. The threat of war still lingers on.

Recently, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told the Egyptian Air Force to “be ready for any mission inside our borders, and if necessary outside the borders.”

Egypt has vowed to use “all means available” to secure its water supply.

VITAL INTERESTS

In a June 29 letter to the UN Security Council, Egypt vowed to “uphold and protect the vital interests of its people,” adding, “Survival is not a question of choice, but an imperative of nature.”

Egypt and Sudan have demanded a binding agreement with Ethiopia on the safety of the dam, the setting of rules for filling it in times of drought, which would guarantee a certain downstream flow through the dam.

But Ethiopia is not ready to meet Egypt’s demands. While insisting that it has a sovereign right to fill the dam, it prefers a looser arrangement where disputes would be settled as they arise through negotiations.

Sudan is less worried than Egypt. Although concerned about safety, as the dam is very close to its border, Khartoum hopes to gain access to cheap electricity that would provide a welcome boost for its troubled economy.

Egypt has also stepped up its diplomatic offensive. In June, Cairo referred the dispute to the Security Council, arguing that the “eventuality” of any unilateral action by Ethiopia to begin filling the dam without a legally binding agreement under international law “represents a serious threat to international peace and security.”

But Ethiopia has been wary about the role of outside parties. In February 2020, Addis Ababa accused Washington of favouring Egypt.

UNILATERAL MEASURES

On June 26, 2020, the AU convened a video conference between the leaders of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan chaired by the South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and attended by notable African leaders, including the presidents of Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali.

The discussions ended in a resolution that stressed that no unilateral measures, such as filling the dam, would take place until a final agreement is reached by all concerned countries.

Leaders of Sudan and Ethiopia have “underscored that... African issues must be given African solutions”.

Africa needs to play a more robust role that eventually puts the dam in the context of the wider regional development plan for the Nile. This could help defuse tensions over the dam and future projects.

Prof Peter Kagwanja is former government advisor and CEO of Africa Policy Institute