Why is it so hot? It's normal for this time of year, experts say

Even you have felt it. It’s hot, very hot. It feels as if the sun isn't just beating down but breathing fire.

A five-day weather forecast issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department shows that most parts of the country are dominated by dry spells and will continue to experience sunny and dry weather conditions in the coming days.

In the highlands east of the Rift Valley which includes counties such as Nairobi, Embu, Meru, Kiambu and Murang’a, the forecast shows that temperatures could go as high as 38 degrees Celsius while for those in Northwestern, which covers Samburu and Turkana counties could be in for an even hotter weather with the maximum temperature expected to go as high as 39 degrees Celsius.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average over the whole country during the forecast period. However, some parts of the country in the South Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley are likely to receive light to moderate rainfall.

The World Meteorological Organisation suggests that January was the hottest month on record, a trend seen for much of last year which was recorded as the hottest year in history.

The upcoming climate outlook from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) anticipates specific climate conditions for the period spanning March to May. Initial insights suggest heightened heat stress across various regions. Particularly, eastern Tanzania, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and significant portions of South Sudan are projected to experience elevated levels of heat stress during this timeframe.

With Kenya coming out of an El Nino phenomenon and the ethereal flutter of white butterflies, which led to a speculation of imminent weather shifts, it is easy to think of the current weather condition as unexceptionally unusual.

But is it?

Dr Cromwell Lukorito, a climate scientist at the University of Nairobi and as a vice chairperson on impact adaptation and vulnerability at the International Plant Protection Convention working group 2, says that this is expected at this time of the year.

Is this hot spell more intense or longer than usual for this time of year?

First, let me be very quick not to condemn the intensity because we have just come from the El Nino climate phenomenon, which brought with it some enhanced rainfall that extended into January and the early days of February. But when we come to the global scale, we find that temperature-wise, every decade that passes is becoming progressively warmer. If you look at the data from the pre-industrial era to date, and taking a block of 10 years, we find that for every 10 years that are presenting themselves, temperatures are increasingly higher.

And there are various reasons, perhaps?

Yes, there are global patterns, and we also have some local contributions from the remnant of the moisture that is still heavy in our atmosphere following the extended rain period. All over the country, there is still a lot of wetness.

What the wetness does is that it enhances evaporation processes, bringing water vapour, a lot of it, into the atmospheric environment. Coupled with the sun heating, we create an enhanced natural greenhouse effect which is a warming element. If we have a local influx of moisture in the atmosphere, then the sensation of temperature will be higher. And that's why you feel much hotter around the coastal area in Mombasa, Kisumu, where we have large water bodies, Turkana, not because the sun is much hotter, but because we have a lot of water vapour in the atmosphere, which will absorb and store a lot of heat. 

Is this more about climate change or climate variability?

Well, what we are seeing here is on a larger scale, climate change. But we have a variability mode embedded within the change. And this is where most of the extreme events are masked—they are in the variability mode. On one hand, climate variability is natural fluctuations and short-term changes in the Earth's climate system. On the other, its climate change which refers to long-term shifts in average climate conditions, primarily driven by human activities.

And the focus now, unfortunately, is around a change, which is a general pattern. However, the issues of variability within the change are getting missed out.

Climate change and variability have been taken to mean the same thing, but they are different in terms of the time span of the shifts away from the long-term average conditions.

With this kind of weather that we're experiencing right now, are there any concerns or potential impacts on maybe agriculture, water resources, or human health?

We should be worried because the change in intensity might bring about some disruption in the normal order. And therefore, agriculture will be adversely impacted. With the soaring temperatures, there is going to be an impact on water availability which will affect agricultural activities. And, we may have an enabling environment for pathogenic organisms now to prevail, especially where we are doing irrigated agriculture using polluted water.

For how long do we anticipate this weather to last?

Well, the temperatures are expected to continue rising and will only be ameliorated by the onset of the long rains. Until then, the globe not just Kenya, will continue experiencing high temperatures.

Do you have any recommendations for effectively managing or enduring hot weather conditions?

When the temperature of the air rises, what happens is that the atmosphere becomes more thirsty for water. Its capacity to accommodate water increases and that’s why sweating increases and plants transpire even more. At an individual level, it’s important to make sure that you maintain your system hydrated. Also, consider having pocket umbrellas that you can use on the outside to prevent the sun hitting you directly. Lastly, wear light clothes.

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