Revenue-sharing formula puts Raila between a rock and a hard place

ODM leader Raila Odinga is facing a big headache over the contentious revenue-sharing formula that is now threatening to puncture his political ambitions.

The new formula has seen Mr Odinga’s allies clash with his ‘handshake’ partner Uhuru Kenyatta and is threatening to scuttle execution of their pet project — the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) — after the President’s men pegged the success of the drive to the passage of the new formula.

With eyes on the 2022 polls, the former Prime Minister is now caught between a rock and a hard place: to appease the regions that have always supported his political cause, including the Coast and North Eastern, or secure his handshake deal with the President by backing Mt Kenya.

Should Mr Odinga’s allies, who are opposed to the new formula proposed by the Commission for Revenue Allocation, stick to their guns, his relationship with Mr Kenyatta is likely to face its biggest test ever.

BETRAYED

If the former PM reaches a deal with the Head of State, his allies, led by his deputy party leader Ali Hassan Joho, the Mombasa governor, will feel betrayed and this could have far-reaching consequences on his future ambitions.

Senate Majority Whip Irungu Kang’ata on Sunday told the Nation that they do not see the need for the BBI if the new formula fails.

“It’s true we shall not support BBI if this formula doesn’t pass. My Nasa brothers should learn the art of humility and waiting patiently for the larger cause instead of focusing on small gains,” Mr Kang’ata said.

“They always come very near the prize then a small good torpedoes everything. BBI is their baby, let them chose BBI or the formula.”

Mr Odinga’s men, however, cautioned Mr Kang’ata against pegging the matter on the success of BBI process, which they say has already consumed taxpayers’ money.

“This is a debate on the floor of the Senate among senators elected to represent their people. It has nothing to do with BBI. Kang’ata has demonstrated that he does not even know what the ‘handshake’ and BBI are all about,” ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna told the Nation.

KEEN ATTENTION

He pointed out that the party will not betray their supporters by approving the new formula due to coercion. “We as a party don’t believe in winning at all costs. We will do what is right no matter the consequence. Remember Raila standing up for the Mau in 2013? That is who we are,” added Mr Sifuna.

ODM national treasurer Timothy Bosire said issues of funds, which fall in his docket in the party, are matters that require keen attention and sobriety to address.

“This county revenue-sharing dictatorship being pushed on Kenyans is a conspicuous blackmail over BBI and ‘handshake’, and are clear signs of a determination to throw Raila under the bus,” Mr Bosire said.

He said their party must have smarter options out of the current impasse as “glossing over these will be costly.”

But Mr Kang’ata insisted that Nasa strongholds are the biggest beneficiaries in the new formula.

“See the allocations for Kakamega, Kisumu, Kisii, Siaya and compare that with central counties like Murang’a. You will see that western counties are benefiting more.”

But Mr Bosire indicated that “Mr Odinga’s support does not only lie in Nyanza and Western but across the country. There is no way we can betray our brothers and sisters at the Coast, North Eastern and among other counties.”

Already, coastal leaders under the umbrella of Jumuiya ya Kaunti za Pwani economic bloc will be moving to court to block the adoption of the revenue allocation formula should it be passed by the Senate.

REJECTION OF FORMULA

JKP secretariat official Emmanuel Nzai said the stand of the six governors from Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Taita Taveta and Tana Rive on the rejection of the formula still remains and they will deploy other options, including moving to court should the senate adopt the bill.

Coast leaders have also put aside their political differences to oppose the formula, saying, if adopted, the region risks losing more than Sh8 billion.

In a rare show, political enemies Stewart Madzayo, nominated Senator Christine Zawadi and Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa had to put their political difference aside to advocate for rejection of the bill

Mr Madzayo said Kilifi and Kwale counties will be the biggest losers if the bill passes as they risk losing Sh1.2 billion and Sh1.1 billion, respectively.

“It’s disturbing that marginalised counties like Mandera and Tana River, which do not have proper roads, universities, hospitals and national schools could have their revenue slashed by as much as Sh2 billion,” the Kilifi senator said.

Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya said if the formula is implemented, marginalised counties will incur losses in revenue collection.

His Tana River counterpart Dhadho Godhana said the formula challenges the sense of equitable development as it was thought of during drafting of the Constitution.

Kwale Senator Issa Juma said he will rally his colleagues at the Senate to reject the punitive formula.

Echoing similar sentiments, Coast Parliamentary Group chairman Said Hiribae is now calling on all coast leaders to convene for a meeting focused at lobbying against the proposal.

“We can’t compare infrastructural development in marginalised counties like Tana River with those in Kiambu which has produced presidents every electioneering period,” he said.

Additional reports by Fadhil Fredrick, Charles Lwanga, Lucy Mkanyika, Maureen Ongala and Stephen Oduor