The Oscars: My prediction for winner of Best Picture

What you need to know:

  • This one has the element of fantasy, telling the story of a mute woman, Eliza, who works as an overnight cleaner in a research laboratory.
  • Eliza befriends the strange creature in the lab, which looks like a cross of a human being and a fish.
  • The Russians want the creature so that the Americans do not have it, while the Americans are thinking of cutting it open to study it – something that will lead to its death.

It is the season for the Oscars again. The annual Academy Awards that recognise the best films in the world will be presented tomorrow night, and one Kenya-based film, Watu Wote, is in the contention for best film in the student category. But what about the number one category — Best Picture — who will take that home? Here are the nominees.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This film revolves around Mildred Hayes and her fight for justice after the murder of her daughter. Mildred takes on the town’s police force when she puts up three billboards with a message for the head of the police. Residents of the small town are not thrilled because the head of police is a decent and well-liked person and happens to be dying of cancer.

The film’s unwieldy name, Three Billboards, is a paean to excellence in art, reminding us of what works of art should do; help us think, reflect and look into our own consciences; all the while maintaining the highest artistic standards possible. This film gets an 9 out of 10; it will most likely win Best Picture as well as the slew of Oscars in the other nominations it has garnered.

Call Me By Your Name

This movie is set in a quiet village in Italy in 1983. It revolves around a small Jewish family and the erotic longings awoken in Elio, the only child of the couple, when an American academic comes visiting. It is a poignant theme as we see how difficult it was to exist as a gay man in the early 1980s even in Europe, but the story is unveiled too slowly and is boring and laborious to follow. There is nothing transformational about it; it offers no food for thought. This one gets a 3 out of 10. Seriously.

Dunkirk

Christopher Nolan fans who watch this film will be left disappointed. It holds nothing of his trademark brilliance, none of the clever plot twists and turns, nary an intellectually-engaging thought, not a single thrill and spill. Set in 1940s England, it captures the historical event that took place in England in Dunkirk, where the English and their allies, the French, had been pushed to the sea by German soldiers, and more than 300,000 British soldiers faced death by air bombings and the continued incursion by the infantry on the ground. The problem with this film is that it is not grounded in any particular character in a way that would make mental or emotional headway with viewers. It deviates from the principles of film especially in regard to character. Who is the story about? What is their personal conflict? Why should we invest in them? Jumping from character to character, it fails to develop or do justice to any and this simply plods in the most boring way. This one gets a 2 out of 10.

Ladybird

Ladybird is a pleasantly lovely movie. Set in 2002 in a small town in America, it revolves around a 17-year-old high school student with dreams bigger than the town she lives in. She wants to move to New York, where all the ‘culture’ is. It is her personality that makes us get involved in and get engaged with the movie from start, what with her precociousness, occasionally histrionic bouts (she hurled herself out of her mothers moving car to escape an argument with her). And this is what keeps us glued from start to finish as we watch Lady Bird navigate school life, trying to fit in with wealthier students, navigating friendships, dreams, first time sex, heartbreak, fights with her mother, and the ups and downs of growing up. A very simple story but very engaging. It earns a strong 7 out of 10.

Get Out

This is one movie that started with a lot of promise but failed spectacularly towards the end. Chris has gone to meet the parents of his girlfriend Rose but finds that he has gotten into way more than he bargained for. An African-American, he is worried that Rose’s parent’s will disapprove of him because of his colour (her family is Caucasian) but it turns out that they are nothing less than thrilled to see him. Unfortunately, the reasons for this are twisted and macabre.

Here’s what I did not like about Get Out. For one, it had not fully made it’s mind up on if it wanted to be a comedy or a horror movie. Second, the entire set up of the plot was ludicrous and in bad taste. If we are to be frank, it was a racist movie and does nothing for race relations globally. It gets a 1.5 out of 10, and that is very generous.

The Darkest Hour

Set in May 1940, the very same time as Dunkirk, Hitler’s invasion of Europe has the British parliament in a twist. Neville Chamberlain is kicked out as Prime Minister as his party members believe he is incapable of facing the Nazi incursion. Winston Churchill is put in his place. The set design, mood and atmosphere set out in this movie is well-done. It revolves around the grand theme of war but manages to remain grounded (something Dunkirk fails at) by being centred on one key character: Churchill, who is presented as an endearing figure, a bumbling, impulsive, eccentric, doddering man.

Knowing that the German force was superior in every way, it is remarkable how Churchill kept his faith even as his contemporaries scolded him for refusing to accept reality. His Cabinet members did not have particularly high regard for him and continually planned his downfall. This lack of faith in him sets up the contrast and tension. This one gets 8 out of 10. It is compact, precise, artistically solid and inspiring.

Phantom Thread

The eerie title sets the tone for what will follow — the theme of passionate and obsessive love. A renown fashion designer has a penchant for falling in love with women and then getting rid of them when they start to get on his nerves. On a trip out of London where the story is set, he meets a waitress, Alma, who becomes his new muse and lover. Unfortunately, simple and sweet as she appears, she is a lot more of a survivor than she lets on and manages to worm her way into his life, even beyond the reaches of his ever present sister. Reynolds is obsessed about his work, something that makes Alma unhappy as she feels it takes him from her. She eventually comes up with a devious plan to make sure that she has him under her thumb. This one gets a 6 out of 10.

The Post

Set in America in 1966, The Post revolves around real life events.  A journalist gets his hands on reports detailing the lies the American government has been feeding the public about the Vietnam war, claiming that it is on the road to success, while actually it is a lost cause. 

Kay Graham, the owner of The Washington Post is struggling to save her newspaper and keep it afloat, amid rivalry from The New York Times. The Post examines the thin line between the friendship of politicians and the press, as well as the power of the press even in repressive environments. President Richard Nixon tried to browbeat the media and prevent it from publishing material on the Vietnam War, but when the fourth estate came together in solidarity, with all publishing what had been banned, they were able to grab back their constitutional freedoms. Amid all this, we also see the early struggles of women in business and how they often felt invisible and like outsiders, in the largely male dominated business world. This is a compelling movie, which is not surprising given that Steven Spielberg directed it and it features some of Hollywood’s finest as cast. It gets an 8 out 10.

The Shape of Water

This one has the element of fantasy, telling the story of a mute woman, Eliza, who works as an overnight cleaner in a research laboratory. Eliza befriends the strange creature in the lab, which looks like a cross of a human being and a fish. The Russians want the creature so that the Americans do not have it, while the Americans are thinking of cutting it open to study it – something that will lead to its death.

Eliza sneaks the creature out of the facility and takes it to her house. There, she and her next door neighbour discover that the creature, while looking like a complete freak of nature, has powerful healing qualities. The manager who was in charge of the creature is, however, spending sleepless nights looking for it. This one is a 7 out of 10.

Who is going to win? Well the three strongest contenders are The Post, The Darkest Hour, and Three Billboardsout of Ebbing Missouri, each with more than 8 out of 10 scores. If merit is the sole factor, one of these gets to take the Best Picture award home. We could nevertheless see a decision taken to award an atrocity such as Get Out simply to assuage the racial rages that have plagued Hollywood recently. If such a thing happens, it will be a catastrophe.