Kenya faces tough second month in battle against virus

As Kenya begins the second month since it reported its first case of coronavirus, the country could be facing its toughest month yet if its infection and mortality patterns mirror those of some of the worst affected countries.

By the end of the first month Sunday, the country had recorded a total of 197 confirmed cases, eight deaths and 25 recoveries.

While the numbers appear low, data from the World Health Organisation and the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Research Center reveals that the reported cases of some of the worst-hit countries in the first month were way fewer than Kenya’s.

What is more worrying is the fact that graphs for the worst countries spiked in the second month, the majority from day 45 of the first case.

The highest confirmed coronavirus infections so far have been reported in the US (530,005), Spain (152,271), Italy (152,271), France (130,730), Germany (125,452), China (83,134), UK (79,885), Iran (71,686) and Turkey (52,167)

While the first case in the US was reported on January 23, 51 days before the first case was reported in Kenya, only 53 coronavirus cases were confirmed and reported by Washington within the first month.

Since then, the US has reported 526,396 cases, and 20,463 deaths, overtaking Italy in grave consignments.

RAPID INCREASE

In the UK, only 36 cases were confirmed in the first month of the first reported coronavirus case, from January 31.

Since then, the country has reported 79,874 cases, and 9,892 deaths.

Similar small numbers were reported in France where the cases hit 12 in the first one month, with the country declaring itself “free from the pandemic” within the first 31 days only for the numbers to drastically increase to 130,727 cases and 13,851 deaths so far.

The neighbouring Italy, where the first case was reported on January 31, also had a similar sweet narrative, recording just 34 cases within the first one month before things went out of hand.

Since then, the country has reported 152,271 cases, and 19,468 deaths.

In the US, the number of confirmed infections rose from 53 on January 23 to more than 33,000 by the end of the second month on March 23.

From Italy’s 1,100 cases at the end of the first month, the number soared to more than 97,000 by the end of the second month.

Kenya’s first month of coronavirus history is almost similar to that of Spain, which recorded 150 confirmed infections of the virus within the first month.

However, since then, the European country has reported 163,027 cases, and 16,606 deaths.

WORRYING PREDICTIONS

The reported coronavirus cases in Germany within the first month of the first reported case were only 22. Since then, the country has reported 124,908 cases, and 2,736 deaths.

China, the initial epicentre of the virus and the world’s most populous country, recorded nearly 10,000 cases within the first month. Since then, the country has reported 83,014 cases, and 3,343 deaths.

In Africa, the first case was reported two months ago in Egypt, and since then more than 240 people in the continent have died from the virus.

Of Africa’s 54 countries, only three have yet to report a case of the virus. These are Comoros, Lesotho and Sao Tome and Principe.

The highest numbers of the infected in Africa are in South Africa (2,028), Egypt (1,939), Algeria (1,825), Morocco (1,545), Cameroon (820), Tunisia (685), Ivory Coast (533), Niger (491), Ghana (408), Mauritius (319), Nigeria (318) and Guinea (250).

However, Kenya’s 197 confirmed cases and eight deaths are way lower than what experts at the University of Nairobi’s Institute of Clinical Research and Kenya Medical Research Institute had projected.

In the worst case scenario, the researchers tasked by the government to carry out Covid-19 modelling, projected that between 300 to 400 people would succumb to the pandemic.

They also estimated about 10,000 infections over the same period.

However, a month down the line and about two weeks to the end of April, the infections and expected number of deaths have not been as high as they predicted.

“The science of predictions is not an exact one as there are many factors that could tilt the scales,” Prof Wallace Bulimo, one of the researchers, told the Nation.

DEMOGRAPHY

According to the researchers, things could have gone haywire if some drastic actions were not taken.

These include measures announced by the government, including compulsory 14-day quarantine for people who arrived in the country, contact tracing and quarantining, a dusk-to-dawn curfew and restrictions on travel.

Last Friday, the Nation obtained exclusive information on case samples of 189 of the coronavirus patients detailing their age, county of residence, county where the case was diagnosed, nationality, travel history, where they came from, whether the case was local or imported, date of arrival, flight number, if hospitalised and the date of admission.

From the data, the youngest infected person is aged two years and seven months while the oldest is aged 73.

A total of five of the infected are aged 18 years and below, 89 in the youth age bracket of 19 to 35 years and 14 aged 60 and above.

The Covid-19 pandemic has not only touched people’s health but also changed life as we know it.

It has stopped funeral gatherings, weddings — and for the first time churches and bars remain closed.

The economy has not only been thrown into turmoil, but Kenyans will soon witness the worst economic drop for decades.

The new projections estimate that the value of the economy will drop by Sh1 trillion, lead to job losses and a near collapse of various sectors.

At the moment, the future is still unpredictable — and nobody knows when life will get back to normal as Kenyans continue to grapple with a virus that is only less than five months old and which has wrecked economies, killed 110,000 worldwide and continues to rage without abandon.

The Coronavirus Tracker