Demographic time bomb: Decline in population could spell disaster

Kenya will be staring at a population crisis in the near future given the drop in growth, according to the census results released this week.

The country registered the sharpest drop in population growth in the last three decades, with an average annual growth rate of 2.2 per cent in the last decade, compared with 2.9 per cent in the previous period.

The population has increased by an average of less than a million annually the last 10 years, to hit 47,564,296 this year, up from 37.7 million in 2009, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS).

SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES

Prof Murungaru Kimani, a population expert and lecturer at the University of Nairobi, says the trend could have serious consequences in the coming decades. He predicted accelerated slumps in the growth rate occasioned by declining birth rates.

KNBS is yet to release an analysis of the factors responsible for the decline, with Director-General Zachary Mwangi saying they were still analysing the data.

But Prof Murungaru said women’s fertility has been declining since the 1980s, and the trend will continue.

“In fact, as we await the analysis from the census, forecasts from studies that we’ve carried out show that before 2050, a Kenyan woman will on average be giving birth to only two children over her lifetime,” he said.

“This means couples will essentially just be replacing themselves, that is, the father and mother.” This will bring Kenya to a critical threshold, where the average fertility rate will be at “the rate of replacement”, which technically means “below average birth rates”.

ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT

He associates this decline with women’s social economic empowerment and fertility preferences. “Women are more socio-economically empowered today. They want to get an education, build a career, and then plan the number of children to have in line with the things they want to achieve in life,” he said. “This has often meant fewer children.”

In the past, Kenya’s intercensal (annual population) growth rate remained constant by an average 3.4 per cent between 1962-1989. It fell to 2.9 per cent between 1979-1989 and 1999-2009, and now 2.2 per cent.

Prof Murungaru foresees a country with falling fertility rates and an expanding ageing population, which could have serious consequences on productivity and economic growth.

He says it is time the government took drastic action in planning for the challenges associated with a population in which the elderly outnumber young people by effecting pro-youth policies that could forestall the impending crisis.

SHRINKING WORKFORCE

“In the long term, the population of people over 65 years who will have retired and seeking pension will outnumber those below the age of 15,” he observed. “Because the government cannot force women to have more children than they want, the only option is to educate and empower the youth so they can prop up the economy and support the ageing population,” he said, adding that the economy will still suffer a shrinking workforce.

A shrinking workforce taking care of a huge number of elderly people in just a few decades will mean less innovation and dwindling consumer base for goods and services.

As of 2016, 41 per cent of the population was under age 15. Japan and the Scandinavian countries are already struggling with falling birth rates. Their governments are desperately trying to manage population growth by considering measures like generously paid maternal leave and payments for families to produce more children.