Jubilee, Nasa in neck and neck duel ahead of the August poll

IEBC chairperson Wafula Chebukati (left) and CEO Ezra Chiloba. The commission has asked all candidates to adhere to the electoral code of conduct. FILE PHOTO | DENNIS ONSONGO | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Jubilee and Nasa share the 3.7 million new voters registered at the end of the second and final phase of the mass listing which ended on Sunday on a fifty-fifty basis.
  • Nairobi recorded the highest number of new voters at 461,346 followed by Kiambu (225,995), Nakuru (175,756)) and Meru (169,803).
  • Coast counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu and Taita Taveta which are all regarded as Nasa zones now have a total of 1,733,722 registered voters up from 1,171,240 in March 2013.
  • Nasa stronghold of Nyanza comprising Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Siaya, Kisii and Nyamira has a total of 2,686,168 voters compared to 1,942,138 five years ago.

The Jubilee Party and the National Super Alliance are locked in a neck-and-neck battle for votes as the country heads to the General Election, the latest voter registration figures show.

The two coalitions share the 3.7 million new voters registered at the end of the second and final phase of the mass listing which ended on Sunday on a fifty-fifty basis, according to figures released by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) on Tuesday.

According to the figures, Nairobi which is considered a battleground county, recorded the highest number of new voters at 461,346 followed by Kiambu (225,995), Nakuru (175,756)) and Meru (169,803) — all considered Jubilee strongholds.

Counties regarded as Nasa strongholds also recorded major gains with Mombasa enrolling 141, 686 new voters followed by Kilifi (123,866), Machakos (114,320), Kakamega (114,126), Kisumu (98,857), Homa Bay (90,612), Bungoma (88,441), Kisii (87,892) and Kitui (83,299).

The figures released on Tuesday are however not conclusive as eligible but unregistered voters have up to March 6 to register at the constituency level.

But the equation is bound to change once the IEBC completes the registration of Kenyans living in Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda and South Africa in addition to 8,198 prisoners with identity cards spread across 118 correctional facilities.

IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati predicted that the number of new voters registered in the just-ended exercise may drop to 3.2 million once the commission cleans up the register beginning on March 7.

The figures show that besides Nairobi, other battle ground counties that recorded high numbers of new voters include Kajiado (79,733), Narok (63,650), Trans Nzoia (65,353), Mandera (43,322), Kisii (87,892), Nyamira (41,415) and Turkana (34,865).

The six Coast counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Tana River, Lamu and Taita Taveta which are all regarded as Nasa zones now have a total of 1,733,722 registered voters up from 1,171,240 in March 2013.

NASA STRONGHOLD

The data also shows that the central region counties of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu which are pro-Jubilee have a total of 2,912,659 registered voters, up from 2,195,975 in 2013.

The four Western counties of Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia and Vihiga also regarded as Nasa zones have a total of 1,922,166 registered voters compared to 1,434,573 during the 2013 election.

The figures reveal that the three lower eastern counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui considered pro-Nasa have 1,526,013 registered voters up from 1,068,693 in 2013.

Another Nasa stronghold of Nyanza comprising Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Siaya, has a total of 1,861,730 voters compared to 1,309,549 five years ago.

The upper Mt Kenya region comprising Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi which favour Jubilee has a total of 1,244,568 registered voters up from 873,132. Another pro-Jubilee Party region comprising North and South Rift counties of West Pokot, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Laikipia, Nakuru, Kericho and Bomet has a total of 3,250,193 registered voters, up from 2,440,845 in March 2013, the data shows.  

This brings the total number of registered voters in pro-Jubilee zones to 7,437,420 while those of Nasa zones stands at 7,043,631 assuming that all the registered voters from the two coalition strongholds cast their votes on August 8 this year.

It means the General Election will be determined by the so called battle ground counties of Nairobi, Kajiado, Narok, Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Samburu, Marsabit, Isiolo and Trans Nzoia.

CONTINUOUS REGISTRATION

Speaking while releasing the figures, Mr Chebukati said the commission will close the register on March 7 after registering those in the diaspora.

This is despite an order by a judge that continuous registration of voters continues until May 17, exactly 60 days to the election.

“As a commission, we need to, at some point, close the register for verification. We will close it on March 7, but (as per the court order), we will not lock out those who want to register,” Mr Chebukati said, evading questions on whether or not those who register after the IEBC deadline will be allowed to vote .

While he announced timelines for presentation of nomination rules for various candidates, Mr Chebukati shattered the hopes of politicians who had thought they could shift from one party and run as independents.

While the gazettement of a list of candidates in political parties is 120 days to the elections, those running as independent will be gazetted 90 days to the poll, giving a 30-day window to politicians.

“If you want to run as an independent candidate, do not engage in the nomination of a political party. The law was made to stop that, and we will make sure it does,” he said.

In the registration numbers, a record 1,001, 819 voters applied to change voting locations in the 35-month period.

And though the commission did not provide details, politicians were accused of buying voters to their locations to shore up their numbers.

“We observed that there are places that recorded more transfers than new registration of voters,” the IEBC head said, adding that

this could affect the size of polling stations considering that the law dictates that a polling station should not have more than 500 voters.

“Once the data is processed, we shall know the trends and what they mean for preparation of elections like in size of polling stations,” said Mr Wabukati.

He said registration in Kenya’s 118 prisons will start today and would target 5,952 convicts and 2,246 suspects in remand.