Lessons for Kenya from Europe

When Germany made it easy for Turks to move in and work there, a unique problem presented itself.

“We wanted workers for our factories,” one opinion shaper said in 2005. “We got people instead.”

Education in Germany is free. When Turks went to work there, they went with their families, which meant that their children were also entitled to free education.

Similarly, mothers with young children get a monthly stipend for every child as part of Germany’s policy to encourage couples to have children.

CHILD-BEARING

When poor Turkish women learnt of the programme, many invested in child-bearing. To this day, in cities like Berlin, it is not uncommon to find a pregnant Turkish woman pushing a pram with three children.

Each child represents a monthly stipend for the mother, but they will enjoy unfettered access to Europe in a way that their parents could never have dreamt when they were young.

These are some of the lessons that Kenya could learn if Tuesday’s declaration by President Uhuru Kenyatta is implemented. In his inauguration speech, he said that East Africans with identity cards from their home countries would be treated as Kenyans.

The open invitation instantly raises the question of whether the children of East Africans will enjoy free primary and free day secondary education if their parents move to Kenya.

It could also mean that they will be entitled to enjoy other benefits, such as being signed up with National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), which means that they will enjoy all the benefits that the scheme offers its Kenyan members.

These and other services have been made possible for the taxes that Kenyans pay.

How will they feel when they are asked to share them with other East Africans?

SAFEGUARDS

The social safeguards programmes that Kenya has put in place are largely funded by the taxes of the working class, who constitute only a small fraction of the entire population.

In Exodus, Paul Collier’s seminal book on migration, he says, “for redistribution to be politically feasible, sufficient fortunate people must be willing to subsidise the less fortunate.” But he goes on to add that “there is evidence that what erodes the willingness to redistribute is the rate at which diversity increases.”

What this could mean for Kenya in the medium and long term is that there could be increased reticence to fund social safeguards if it is seen to benefit a growing number of East Africans.

It will be noted that many European nations, which enjoy more of these social safety nets have invested heavily in keeping immigrants away, including paying their neighbours to turn them back or keep them.

In Kenya, the poor are likely to feel the effects of immigration more should East Africans take up the offer.

It will mean, for instance, that they will have to compete with Ugandans, Tanzanians, Rwandans and South Sudanese for the opportunities offered by small businesses and unskilled labour.

When Western Europe opened its doors to its neighbours in the East, there was a big wave of unskilled workers who moved across borders.

The net effect of this was that wages in countries like Britain went down, increasing tensions between immigrants groups.

BUSINESS

Can this happen in Kenya? And if it does, will it be good or bad? It might be good for businesses and companies, since they will get more workers willing to earn less, but what will it mean for workers and the cost of living?

In Kenya, where strikes by lecturers, nurses and teachers are rampant, inviting East Africans to live and work here could have far-reaching ramifications for unions because it will mean that universities, counties and the TSC can reach out to such workers from across the border.

But this will also have far-reaching ramifications given the cultural and language barriers that diversity erects.

Kenya is bigger economy compared to its neighbours. As such, it is likely to attract, rather than lose professionals.

That could in part explain where President Kenyatta said it was not mandatory for other East African countries to reciprocate its new policy.

CONTROLS

Given this, then, it is possible that productivity and economic activity could increase if the policy is implemented.

“Workers who migrate from poor countries to rich ones are switching social models,” says Collier in his book. “As a result, their productivity rockets upward.”

For businesses and companies, this could be welcome news. And for the government, which is keen to improve the ease of doing business and its competitiveness in increasing investment, opening borders might be a key plank in achieving this goal.

However, a time might come when it will be necessary to tighten controls to ensure that the influx of newcomers does not put undue strain on social services and to ensure that new entrants do not pose a threat to security, social order and cultural integrity.

In the same vein, it will be necessary to delineate what exactly the government means by “equal treatment”.