State of economy, 2022 politics and anti-graft war to shape 2019

Kenyans in Nairobi celebrate Christmas on December 25, 2018. The coming year brings with it major changes that will affect people's lives. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • The China debt, whose loan repayment for the standard gauge railway kicks off in July at the end of a five-year grace period, is yet another disturbing economic constraint.
  • In an interview in Mombasa, Uhuru evaded the succession question and instead pointed out that the Building Bridges Initiative would be part of his administration’s priority areas of focus in 2019.
  • Officially, Mr Maraga will be leaving the Judiciary in 2021, having attained the mandatory retirement age for judges, which is 70 years.

The state of the economy, against the backdrop of newly introduced levies, is the biggest challenge that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration and Kenyans will have to contend with next year.

This, coupled with the confusion that surrounds adoption of the 2-6-3-3 education system from January, population census scheduled for August 24, and the ongoing President Kenyatta and Chief Justice David Maraga’s succession battles, will be some of the key highlights of 2019.

The low moments will, however, be punctuated by two high-profile visits of French President Emmanuel Macron in March and Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella in February, not to mention a moment of pride for the soccer national side, Harambee Stars, which will take part in the continent’s soccer bonanza — Africa Cup of Nations — in June for the first time since 2004.

However, it is debt that is bound to prove the biggest headache for Kenyans in the coming year.

DEBT

In particular, the China debt, whose loan repayment for the standard gauge railway (SGR) kicks off in July at the end of a five-year grace period, is yet another disturbing economic constraint on the common mwananchi.

In efforts to address the debt situation, the government has rolled out several avenues of raising revenue and taxation, which are expected to take effect immediately in January.

There is, for instance, a 15 percent levy imposed on small-sized businesses, which have an annual turnover of less than Sh5 million.

Repayments to the first Sh202 billion Eurobond, which matures in June next year, will cost taxpayers more than Sh97.71 billion.

Economist David Ndii warned that the turbulent global economy would hurt Kenya on the repayment of maturing bonds.

“The financial crisis will come to a head at some point. How the government will respond to it will determine how we fair,” Dr Ndii said.

RECESSION

On the other hand, University of Nairobi business professor Bitange Ndemo noted that it is increasingly getting clearer that there will be a global recession next year, which would affect Kenya’s economy.

“The slowdown in China, the shutdown in the US, the weakening in Germany ... the signs are there. And this will affect us when people go for priority items and give our produce like flowers a wide berth.”

He said the situation will be worsened by the new taxation regime. “People will be hit hard. The only saving grace is that rains are predicted to increase. This will ensure food and money if we handle the market problem.”

The government is expected to execute the 1.5 percent salary deductions with effect from January to go towards financing the housing project under Jubilee’s Big Four Agenda.

The levy has attracted a lot of resistance from Kenyans and the Employment and Labour Relations Court accordingly slammed brakes on its execution on December 20. The case is to be heard on January 21.

ELECTIONS

Succession politics is also expected to dominate the 2019 calendar.

Already, the vice-chairman of Jubilee Party, Mr David Murathe, has set the political tempo for 2019, following his remarks on December 26 that members of the President’s Kikuyu community do not owe a political debt to Deputy President William Ruto.

Murathe, a close ally of Mr Kenyatta’s, has even asked the DP to retire from elective politics alongside the President in 2022.

And, as expected, a political storm has erupted in Jubilee owing to the former Gatanga MP’s pronouncement.

Led by National Assembly and Senate Majority leaders, Aden Duale and Kipchumba Murkomen, the politicians, who are mainly allied to the DP, have dismissed Mr Murathe’s views as personal.

But Nominated MP Maina Kamanda maintains Mr Murathe has spoken for the silent majority in the party “and should not be condemned for stating the truth”.

“When the right time comes, we will say the same things Mr Murathe has said; but for now let us just focus on unity of the country,” Mr Kamanda told the Nation on Thursday.

AMBITION

Pointing out that Mr Murathe’s views are personal, Nyeri Town MP Wambugu Ngunjiri observed that expecting Dr Ruto to quit politics is nonetheless unrealistic “because he is still young and ambitious and has invested a lot in wanting to become President”.

In essence, Mr Ngunjiri envisages a tough succession battle ahead because “Ruto wants to make himself President; by himself, and owe no one for getting there. He wants to use his immense energy and resources, tactical mind, will and sheer grit, to become the fifth President.”

And while he would do with the help of the President, Mr Ngunjiri claims Dr Ruto would rather demonstrate he can achieve this on his own.

However, Dr Ruto will not let go easily. He is expected to fight out on this one to the wire — which makes for blistering political fireworks in 2019.

And Jubilee deputy secretary-general Caleb Kositany aptly captures the scenario: “While there was no explicit agreement on the DP’s 2022 presidential candidacy, President Kenyatta assured him of support and we all look forward to this”.

PRIORITY

But the situation has further been complicated by Mr Kenyatta’s loud silence on the succession politics.

During an interview in Mombasa on Friday, the President evaded the succession question and instead pointed out that the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) would be part of his administration’s priority areas of focus in 2019.

“We have never engaged in 2022 politics with Raila (Odinga, the Opposition leader). Kenyans want peace, prosperity and good health. That has formed the basis of our collaboration,” the President said.

The ODM leader has similarly kept opponents and allies guessing over his political standing. In a recent televised interview with a local station, Mr Odinga said he was not going to plunge the country into a campaign mode so soon after last year’s elections.

“If I was to run for President I would say it but I have not said it. If I start campaigning now then this country will be in a campaign mode straight away … tomorrow … and nobody will be talking about the Big Four agenda,” he said.

REFERENDUM

Also on the calendar next year is the constitutional review push, which has already caused divisions among the political class. Mr Ngunjiri argues that a referendum is inevitable:

“Uhuru wants it, Raila wants it and Kenyans need it. In my opinion a referendum will deal with how to create a governance structure that has more communities included in the executive.”

Also on the cards in August is the 2019 population census. While the census captures other demographic factors, like housing, health facilities, the political interest in the exercise cannot be overstated.

The population figures captured in the exercise will inform the boundaries delimitation exercise to be undertaken by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

And coming just three years to the next General Election, the exercise is bound to attract a lot of political interest and interference, considering that population figures also inform political campaigns along ethnic lines.

On the judicial front, the main highlights are the Maraga succession manoeuvres ahead of the next polls, and the ongoing fight against graft.

GRAFT

Since his appointment as Director of Public Prosecutions nine months ago, Mr Noordin Haji has been very active and fast in investigating and prosecuting cases, particularly of high-profile individuals involved in graft. More zeal and action is expected from the DPP.

However, human rights’ lawyer Mr Harun Ndubi envisions more attacks on the Chief Justice.

“The pretext would be the pretentious war on corruption. There are those who would like to believe that Uhuru is serious and the DPP plus DCI are doing their bit but the judiciary is the stumbling block. Far from the truth, the dramatisation of the anti-corruption cases will be the Achilles heel in the very fight.”

The Executive, Mr Ndubi says, is likely to intensify its fight with the Judiciary through the battle to control the Judicial Service Commission (JSC).

The lawyer also believes the Executive is deeply involved in the Maraga succession manoeuvres which he fears “will intensify and get really ugly next year”.

“Actually all these shenanigans around the weaponisation of corruption law is about Maraga succession and the political perception on the Supreme Court. That is why I think the DCJ (Philomena Mwilu) is collateral damage in that war of succession. The establishment wouldn’t want a court that will in the future nullify a presidential election.”

REFORMS

Officially, Mr Maraga will be leaving the Judiciary in 2021, having attained the mandatory retirement age for judges, which is 70 years.

On the electoral body, Mr Ndubi believes the same logic applies. The Executive will push for a composition of commissioners that are favourable to sing to its tune.

But again, this will depend on the political realignments in the country, particularly within Jubilee.

Away from the big fights on the political scene and within the Judiciary, 2019 holds some interesting developments for Kenyans on the security front.

The police, who have been kitted in new colours of navy blue, will — under a new policy — start living among the civilian population.

The notion behind the move, according to police authorities, is to bring service closer to the people and also promote warm relations with civilians.

Separately, 2019 will witness intense lobbying for replacement of Inspector General of Police Joseph Boinnet.