Over 2m plan to boycott August elections, reveals Ipsos poll
What you need to know:
In total, 2,164,184 Kenyans have registered to vote against the commission’s target of 6.1 million in the next one week.
Rift Valley, Coast, Nairobi and Western lead in the number of unregistered people with 17 percent, 16 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.
North Eastern and Nyanza have lowest percentage of unlisted eligible voters, with three and five percent, respectively.
At least two million eligible voters in Kenya are not willing to be registered in the ongoing mass listing campaign, an opinion poll has revealed.
There is real voter apathy across the political divide, with 12 per cent of Jubilee supporters declaring that they do not intend to register as new voters even with the February 14 deadline fast approaching, the latest survey by Ipsos Synovate shows.
The same scenario applies to Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) and National Supper Alliance (Nasa) supporters, with 11 per cent saying they will boycott the August 8 polls.
According to the 2009 national census, over 19 million Kenyans are 18 years and above, and hence eligible to take part in elections.
The survey report released on Wednesday shows that only 14 per cent of Kenyans have registered as new voters, with Cord or Nasa having 15 per cent of their supporters registered while their rivals in Jubilee have 13 per cent listed.
LOW TURNOUT
The report comes at a time when the Independent and Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is grappling with low turnout in some parts of the country, with only 624,306 new voters registered in the third week.
In total, with less than a week to go, 2,164,184 Kenyans have registered to vote against the commission’s target of 6.1 million.
The Rift Valley, Coast, Nairobi and Western regions lead in the number of eligible unregistered people, with 17 per cent, 16 per cent, and 15 per cent, respectively.
Northeastern and Nyanza have the lowest percentage of unlisted eligible voters, with three and five per cent, respectively.
POLITICAL DIVIDE
According to the report, there is an evident political divide in support for the electoral body, with a majority of Jubilee supporters, 86 per cent, exuding confidence in the body against Cord's and Nasa’s 41 percent.
Also, 36 per cent of Cord and Nasa supporters have no confidence in the IEBC compared with only six per cent of the Jubilee supporters.
This is backed by another revelation by the report that the commission enjoyed a lot of confidence before the March 2013 elections but the belief plummeted after the polls to an all-time low of 16 per cent.
On the flipside, 59 per cent of Kenyans are well aware of the changes that have taken place at the IEBC.
Among Cord and Nasa supporters, the percentage is at 65 while in Jubilee it stands at 62.
CONFIDENCE IN IEBC
On the recent enactment of the Elections Amendments Act, a worrying trend is revealed where only 14 per cent of Cord or Nasa supporters believe it will lead to a peaceful pre-election period against 62 per cent in the Jubilee camp.
The survey also reveals that the IEBC enjoys huge confidence among Jubilee voters to effectively manage the August elections at 72 per cent.
This is more than the national average of 50 per cent but only 26 per cent of Cord and Nasa backers have confidence in the electoral agency.
Perceived Jubilee strongholds - Central and Rift Valley - profess 75 per cent and 62 per cent confidence, respectively, while Nasa strongholds of Nyanza and Western only have 25 per cent and 37 per cent confidence levels, respectively.
The survey sampled 2,057 adults aged 18 years and above living in urban and rural areas through face-to-face interviews at the household level between January 9 and 26 employing random, multi-stage stratification proportionate to population size across 42 counties with a +/-2.16 percent margin of error.
