Early results show ANC losing support in key cities

PRETORIA, THURSDAY

Results from South Africa’s fiercely contested local elections could deliver a setback to the African National Congress (ANC), with early indications on Thursday showing the party that ended apartheid losing support.

With over 77 per cent votes counted, the ANC leads nationally while the Democratic Alliance (DA) is nose ahead in the key three metros — Johannesburg, Tshwane and the Nelson Mandela Bay.

The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) on Thursday afternoon said the counting of votes was 77 per cent complete with a handful of voting stations winding up.

The IEC expects to be done by 1900 although KwaZulu Natal results will only be ready by 2200.

The ANC has amassed 54 per cent nationally with the DA just above half that percentage at 28 per cent.

But ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe said they were not satisfied with how they have fared so far.

“The ANC is performing well in ward seats, but we have not done well in proportional representation seats. It’s a concern for us,” he said. Political analyst Thulani Ndlovu blamed the ANC’s inconsistencies to faction fights especially in the metros where DA is ahead so far.

“What hurt the ANC in Gauteng has been disunity. It’s been the same challenge in the Western Cape where the ANC has been at war with itself. We are seeing the manifestation of the infighting in the election outcomes,” he said.

VOTERS SHIFTING LOYALTIES

Another political analyst Peter Croucamp believes some people who traditionally vote for the ANC have moved to the DA.

“EFF wanted to reach the 10 per cent threshold and may be disappointed (they are on 7.5 per cent). They’ll be disappointed because such an outcome would suggest they have reached the ceiling,” Mr Croucamp said. He is convinced the local government elections are difficult for small parties, who have small budgets and the bigger parties have taken advantage of this.

 election.

However, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has retained the Nkandla municipality with 56 per cent of the vote against the ANC’s 42 per cent. Nkandla is President Jacob Zuma’s rural home and the ANC would have expected to capitalise on that.

The IFP pulled 15 488 votes from Nkandla’s 14 wards and the ANC 11 561 votes.

In 2011, the IFP won Nkandla with 46 per cent against the ANC’s 42 per cent.

The ANC in the Eastern Cape said the party has won 36 of the Nelson Mandela Bay Metro’s 60 wards.

In the Northern Cape 99 percent of the votes had been counted, with only a few outstanding wards of the Sol Plaatjie municipality. The ANC is leading with 58.15 percent.

The Western Cape has completed 84 per cent of its counting, with the DA dominating with 63.57 per cent.

Ndlovu said he had noted that most votes won by DA were those that were white areas in the past.

OPPOSITION WINNING IN BIG CITIES

The main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) was on course to hold Cape Town, ahead in the city of Port Elizabeth, and locked in a close battle for the capital Pretoria and the economic hub Johannesburg.

The ANC has won more than 60 per cent of the vote at every election since the country’s first multi-racial vote in 1994 when Nelson Mandela was sworn in as president.

With more than two-thirds of the vote counted, the ANC had 53 per cent support nationwide, with the DA on 27 per cent and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on eight per cent, according to official results.

The count is seen as a marker ahead of the next general election due in 2019.

The local election is also a mid-term reflection on the performance of President Jacob Zuma, who has been plagued by economic woes and a series of scandals since taking office in 2009.

The ANC has dominated the political landscape since the fall of white-minority rule, but the faltering economy, rampant corruption and soaring unemployment have eaten into the party’s popularity.

“We have shown some incredible growth,” Mr Mmusi Maimane, the DA’s first black leader, told 702 radio. “We call this the change election because we felt that it was a referendum on Jacob Zuma as a national figure, but we also had a referendum about the future of South Africa.”

Millions of voters queued outside polling stations on Wednesday after a fiercely fought and occasionally bitter campaign marked by disputes over alleged racial slurs.

IPSOS POLL

A final Ipsos survey earlier this week had placed the ANC and DA neck and neck in key cities after some undecided voters drifted back to the ruling party. “Democracy is maturing so you will find... a dilution where you might not have very strong support for one party,” ANC treasurer Zweli Mkhize said as results continued to be announced.

“We still remain quite positive.” Both the ANC and DA are likely to be forced to court smaller parties and independent candidates to cobble together some outright municipal majorities.

Even if the ANC maintains its hold on local power through party alliances, any overall drop in support would reveal a shift in the country’s political power balance.

“Simply to form a coalition in Pretoria, the capital, would be an embarrassment,” independent analyst Daniel Silke told AFP.

“What it really will say is that few results are certain in South African politics any more (and) that the certainty the ANC has enjoyed for so long would simply be negated.”

DaMina Advisors, a London-based research firm, said in a note that the early results indicated “public support for the ruling African National Congress has taken a severe nose dive”.

Contesting its first local poll after bursting onto the scene in the 2014 general election, the far-left EFF may emerge as in a kingmaker role.

The party, which won six percent of the national vote in 2014, advocates land redistribution without compensation and the nationalisation of mines.

A record 26.3 million people registered to choose mayors and other local representatives responsible for hot-button issues including water, sanitation and power supplies.

With most of the results due out on Thursday, a major collapse of support for the ANC could pile pressure on Zuma, 74, to step down before his second term ends in 2019.