Will Uhuru retire? Critical questions on the BBI mandate

The Building Bridges Initiative Task Force gathers views from lobby group Team Embrace Kenya at KICC on August 8, 2019. The BBI is expected to boost the war on corruption. PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Politicians around the country await whether the BBI will recommend the creation of regional governments.
  • Probably, President Kenyatta might choose to extend the term of the team so that they can oversee the implementation.

As President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga prepare to receive the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) report, many questions remain about its possible recommendations.

One of the sticking points in the BBI is the referendum issue, which has rattled the ruling Jubilee Party, with Deputy President William Ruto openly opposing it.

On the other hand, Mr Odinga has insisted that a referendum must be held before the next General Election, ostensibly to address critical issues that are dragging the nation back.

Although the President has not openly supported the referendum calls, he has said several times that laws must be changed to achieve a more cohesive nation.

The President has repeatedly said that the BBI is meant to come up with recommendations that will help heal deep-seated ethnic and political divisions that arise mostly during elections.

However, in another way, the BBI has opened new political rifts, especially in Jubilee, where supporters of DP Ruto feel that the initiative is part of a large scheme to cut him down to size ahead of the 2022 elections.

ENDORSEMENT

Should the BBI recommend a referendum, one of the consequences of this will be heightened political tensions in the country.

This will effectively put to the test President Kenyatta’s call to leaders to lessen political activities in order to give the limping economy a chance to recover.

At a time when the economy is doing badly, critics of referendum calls say it would be a luxury.

The most likely casualty of this referendum is President Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda — affordable housing, healthcare for all, promotion of agriculture, and manufacturing — which the President has made the centrepiece of his second term.

While no one really knows what the President and Mr Odinga agreed on before the ‘'handshake' in March last year, there is speculation that they agreed on a referendum.

So, if this was the central cog for the handshake, what will be its future should the BBI team decline to recommend it or if the President declines to endorse it?

We take you through some of the critical questions surrounding the BBI mandate.

REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS

One of the other key questions is whether the report will give President Kenyatta another chance to continue his stay in power.

Although the President has reiterated that he will go home when his term expires in 2022, some of his handlers have hinted that he is too young to retire. He will be 62 then.

Politicians around the country await whether the BBI will recommend the creation of regional governments. If created, regional government might result in new regional kingpins.

In Maasailand, leaders have already taken sides and say that recommendations from the report will influence who becomes the Maasai kingpin.

“I believe that the Maasais support the ‘handshake’ and the report will help shape our next course of action,” former Cabinet minister Julius Sunkuli says.

In Nyanza, governors James Ongwae (Kisii), John Nyagarama (Nyamira), Cyprian Awiti (Homa Bay), Cornell Rasanga (Siaya) and Okoth Obado (Migori), who are serving their last terms, are said to be interested in regional governments.

It’s the same case for Coast leaders like Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho and his Kilifi counterpart Amason Kingi.

WAR ON GRAFT

The BBI is expected to boost the war on corruption. But now remains the key question. Some of the proposals that were made during the public participation meetings countrywide were for scrapping the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission.

How will the BBI report be implemented? With the expiry of the tenure of the BBI task force, there is the curious case of who will oversee the implementation of the report.

Probably, President Kenyatta might choose to extend the term of the team so that they can oversee the implementation.

What will Parliament do? Debatably, the associates of DP Ruto control both the Senate and the National Assembly.

Yet there are rumours that the BBI report might avoid the referendum path and instead propose that several of its proposals be legislated through Parliament.

It remains to be seen how much support associates of DP Ruto will give the BBI report if it manages to land in the House.

REFORM AGENDA

Since his youthful days, Mr Odinga has agitated for constitutional reforms.

He was part of the second liberation heroes who fought for a return to multiparty politics in the late 80s and early 90s.

Mr Odinga, who has shown no signs of retiring from politics, is now pushing for further reforms through the BBI.

Will this be his last push for changes to the country’s governance system or does he have another card?

POLITICAL ALLIANCES

For the past few months now, the most active political groupings have been the Inua Mama and Tangatanga movements allied to DP Ruto and Kieleweke and Embrace groups supporting the President. Will these initiatives hold once the report is out?

ECONOMIC UPHEAVAL

There is agony among Kenyans over the state of the economy, which has resulted in the loss of thousands of jobs due to poor returns in business.

Politicians have portrayed the BBI as a report that will help solve the country’s political problems.

Who is likely to benefit from a parliamentary system? Whereas some leaders from the central region are jittery over the BBI report in its rumoured recommendation for a parliamentary system, politicians from pastoralist communities have vowed to support such a system of government.

In the expected proposals, Parliament will pick either a Prime Minister or President.