Intense jostling in Mt Kenya for 2022 succession

The swearing in of President Uhuru Kenyatta for his second term sets the stage for succession politics in Mount Kenya region, as well as the selection of Mr William Ruto’s running mate.

Politicians have started positioning themselves as potential heirs of Mr Kenyatta in Mount Kenya politics, with pundits saying that this could boost the chances of a local leader becoming the running mate of Mr Ruto.

Professor Peter Kagwanja, a political analyst, said that whereas it might be too early to discuss the next Mount Kenyatta kingpin and Mr Ruto’s deputy, the topic cannot be wished away and will shape the 2018-2022 politics.

But Prof Kagwanja added that so far, no politician is head and shoulder above the other as far as Mount Kenya succession politics and selection of Mr Ruto’s running mate are concerned.

Therefore, the battle is open to all. As for Mr Ruto’s running mate, the doors are open to all regions that supported Jubilee in the recent election.

POLITICAL RELEVANCE

The Sunday Nation is aware of plans by a section of central Kenya leaders to have former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo given a powerful ministerial docket that will help him retain political relevance with a view to making him a factor in the region’s succession politics.

Sources said that if the plan succeeds, it could deepen Mr Kiunjuri’s woes and give Mr Ruto, who is a shrewd politician, a run for his money since the flamboyant politician doesn’t shy away from speaking his mind, considering he boldly told the DP that he should not expect automatic support from the region.

“Those behind the game plan feel that Mr Kabogo is brave and could handle Mr Ruto well to ensure the region’s interests are taken care off,” a source said. However, the plan has many shortcomings and challenges. In the past, the former governor has declared his interest in the position, saying no man should lack ambition.

But according to Prof Kagwanja, Devolution Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri, Nyandarua counterpart Francis Kimemia, Governor Kiraitu Murungi and former presidential candidate Peter Kenneth could also be potential contenders.

LEADERSHIP SKILLS

Pr Kagwanja said that Mr Kiunjuri, who is from Laikipia, is a performer and has built a name in politics. However, recent criticism of his leadership by Mount Kenya voters could dent his eligibility.

Mr Kimemia, on the other hand, has good leadership skills, is experienced and has a national identity, having worked in government for years, said Prof Kagwanja. The same goes for Mr Kiraitu, a veteran politician from Meru.

But Prof Kagwanja said Mr Kimemia and Mr Kiraitu’s disadvantage could be their age.

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He added that Mr Kenneth is also a good bet since he has a national outlook, though he has a tall hill to climb after his dismal performance in the recent battle for Nairobi governor seat. Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko, who is a phenomena due to his wide popularity and support,  might also be a man to watch in the race for Mr Ruto’s running mate.

Lawyer Kimani Wakimaa also thinks Mr Kiunjuri, Mr Kenneth and Mr Kiraitu stand good chances in Mount Kenya succession politics, but he adds Kirinyaga Governor Ann Waiguru and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua in the running mate contest. Dr Mutua is pro-Jubilee and he weathered the Nasa storm in Ukambani to retain his seat.

EQUAL CHANCES

According to Mr Wakimaa, although all leaders have equal chances, Ms Waiguru may have an upper hand because of her performance, popularity and position as the senior most female politician in the region currently.

“Ms Waiguru is a performer and a national figure. Gender might work to her advantage. But that will depend on Mr Ruto — will he be willing to pick a female running mate?” posed Mr Wakimaa. He added that so far, no politician has successfully placed themselves as the best candidate.

Mr Kenneth’s main task, he said, is redeeming his political star after his dismal performance in the recent poll, while Mr Kiunjuri’s hurdles include the recent tiffs he had with local leaders. Mr Kenneth would also have to dispel accusations that in 2013 he was a spoiler as he ran against Mr Kenyatta.

Mr Linford Mutembei, chairman of Mount Kenya Youth Caucus, a political lobby group, said it might take time before the potential heirs of Mr Kenyatta are identified.

REPLACE KENYATTA

According to him, although some leaders have started positioning themselves, they will have to earn wide backing from across the region, which might take them a while. Most of them are waiting to be finger pointed, he added.

“We don’t have someone who we can pick and say he is the best suited to replace Mr Kenyatta in Mt Kenya region, or to be Mr Ruto’s running mate. The potential candidates are Kiunjuri, Kenneth, Kimemia, Waiguru and Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria,” Mr Mutembei said.

He added that Mr Kenyatta was not just elevated to the position but earned it, recalling that after the 2007/2008 post-poll chaos, he came out as a defender of the Gema community.

Also, during the Grand Coalition government when he served as a deputy prime minister, he was a strong defender of President Mwai Kibaki.

DE FACTO LEADER

President Kenyatta’s possibility of becoming the Mount Kenya de facto leader was proposed by the late powerful cabinet minister John Michuki, which saw him easily succeed President Kibaki in 2013.

Other leaders who have shown interest in the position include Tharaka Nithi Senator Kithure Kindiki.

Regional balancing will also come into play, with Meru, Murang’a, Embu and Kirinyanga  having stood with central Kenya (Kiambu and Nyeri) for long and now saying it is their time to produce a leader.

Kiambu has had founding President Jomo Kenyatta and his son Uhuru while Nyeri had Mr Kibaki.