Ipsos survey exposes Jubilee party’s weaknesses

It may have captured attention for ranking politicians according to public perceptions of how corrupt they are, but the Ipsos survey released on Wednesday also shows why the Jubilee government is not sitting pretty one year after a hotly-contested election.

According to the poll, corruption has escalated even with the recent efforts aimed at curbing it and the high cost of living, which Jubilee promised to address during last year’s campaign, continues to batter the average Kenyan.

NEGATIVE PUBLICITY

A rattled Jubilee leadership responded with vitriol, initially because of the personalities ranked as corrupt, before painting it as an affront on the party’s development record.

“We will not allow ourselves to go to an arena of fake news and fake opinion polls. The real contest is on the development arena - the electricity, the roads, the water, the technical training college - the things that matter to ordinary people that will change their lives. That is where the contest will be. And I invite them. Welcome to the real contest. Let us meet at the development arena of the people of Kenya,” Deputy President William Ruto said on Thursday. He blamed the negative publicity against him and the government to political rivals.

COST OF LIVING

A day earlier, National Assembly majority leader Aden Duale had questioned the credibility of the poll saying it was paid for and choreographed by people he did not name.

 “Kenyans should treat this Ipsos thing with the contempt it deserves because you cannot indict people with results from hired people,” added Mr Duale said. Ipsos has denied the poll was commissioned by third parties.

The poll revealed that Kenyans perceive worsening economic conditions as their most pressing problem, with the rising cost of living being of most concern. Infrastructure, the default get-out-of-jail card whenever Jubilee is pushed to a corner, has also fallen in importance as a factor to how well the country is doing.

WRONG DIRECTION

As a result, the survey findings released on Wednesday show 59 per cent of respondents felt that the country is heading in the wrong direction while 28 per cent felt it was going in the right direction.

Of concern to the government, however, is that the two-in-three of its supporters who a year ago believed in the way it was steering public affairs has since halved to one-in-three. Also, only respondents from North Eastern on the whole believe the country is going in the right direction with Central and Rift Valley having shifted their stand from a year ago.

It was expected that the handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Nasa leader Raila Odinga on March 9 has ameliorated by now the tendency to see public matters in tinted political party glasses. The survey backs this with Jubilee and Nasa supporters equally more aware of corruption (80 per cent), in agreement that a corrupt person cannot make a good leader and cautions confidence that convictions would be secured.

WORSE SITUATION

There were, however, discernible differences in perception of the president’s sincerity in fighting corruption and success in containing the vice. Predictably, more Jubilee supporters were more upbeat than Nasa supporters on these.

The latest findings compound an already worse situation and continues piling pressure on the Jubilee government to take measures to reduce the cost of food and fuel which are the key factors that contribute to a high cost of living in Kenya.

Since the start of 2017 the prices of food, fuel, transport and house rent have skyrocketed, according to consumer price indices, with Kenyans continuing to struggle to make ends meet.

SERIOUS PROBLEM

The Ipsos poll shows 14 percent of 2,016 respondents interviewed felt the country was heading neither in the wrong nor the right direction.

The survey was conducted between July 25 and August 2. It has a sampling error of +/-2.16 with a 95 percent confidence level.

Of those interviewed, 30 per cent felt that the high cost of living is the most serious problem facing the country today, indicating the need by the Jubilee government to buffer Kenyans from the confluence of factors currently making life difficult for so many.

DEVELOPMENT MATTERS

Dr Tom Wolf, the firm’s research analyst, said a further 21 per cent said the country’s leadership was their greatest challenge, perhaps suggesting that the President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition leader Raila Odinga historical truce in March 9 carries more political implications than the expected socio-economic benefit.

Ironically, it is during this period that a majority of Kenyans, at 43 per cent, felt that Kenya was heading in the right direction. According to Dr Wolf, Kenyans saw the handshake as a gesture of peace with the likelihood of refocusing national attention on development matters.