Nasa trio plan next plot after Raila shocker

By reaching out to National Super Alliance (Nasa) leader Raila Odinga, President Uhuru Kenyatta may well have applied the “strike the shepherd and the sheep will scatter” strategy espoused by American author Robert Greene in his bestseller text, 48 Laws Of Power.  

According to Greene, opposition can often be traced to a single strong individual in a group – such as Mr Odinga within the Nasa outfit.

In his 42nd “law of power”, the author advises thus, “neutralise their influence by striking at the source of the trouble and the sheep will scatter”.

Although the President has clarified his decision to team up with Mr Odinga is persuaded by the need to unite the country, the move has scattered sheep in the Nasa kraal.

UHURU MEETING
Mr Odinga is increasingly getting isolated by fellow co-principals, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, who separately want an audience with Mr Kenyatta as well. 

And the environment within Nasa has further been poisoned by the move by Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) to kick out Mr Wetang’ula as Leader of Minority in the Senate.

And addressing mourners on Friday at the burial of University of Nairobi’s Prof Alloys Tumbo Oeri in Bogeka village, Kisii County, Mr Odinga likened the differences in Nasa to “common rivalry” among co-wives in a polygamous home.

Mr Musyoka also maintains Nasa is intact. Speaking on Friday while campaigning for Wiper candidate, Mrs Edith Nyenze, in the forthcoming Kitui West parliamentary by-election, Mr Musyoka said reports of imminent collapse of the coalition were an “exaggerated creation of the media”.

And he also clarified that Mr Odinga had not defected to Jubilee: “Contrary to what many Kenyans are reading from the press, the handshake between Uhuru and our brother Raila does not mean the ODM leader has joined Jubilee,” he said.

PARLIAMENT

Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka’s reassurances notwithstanding, ODM has turned bullish.

Stating that they want to “reclaim” their political space, secretary-general Edwin Sifuna says ODM will no longer walk on its knees to accommodate its politically short colleagues.

Following last year’s August 8th polls, ODM has a total of 76 MPs – elected and nominated – in the National Assembly compared to Wiper party’s 23, ANC 14 and Ford-Kenya’s 13.

Similarly in the Senate, Mr Odinga’s party leads the pack with 20 legislators compared to three each for Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi and, Mr Wetang’ula as the sole Ford-Kenya senator.

From these statistics, Mr Odinga clearly enjoys stronger political muscle than his counterparts within and outside Parliament.

This partly explains why the President singled him out for truce and companionship.

KALONZO MUSYOKA
With Mr Odinga’s continued disengagement from the Nasa outfit, what with such diminished bargaining power can the other principals do to survive the harsh and competitive political terrain ahead of 2022?

Can they stick together in the opposition and make an impact or are they better off joining President Kenyatta’s Jubilee outfit? 

He missed out on the opportunity to take the space of second in command within the Nasa leadership structure on January 30th, the day Mr Odinga took the “oath of office” as the People’s President.

Whatever his reasons for skipping the event, this was one major opportunity lost.

Having backed Mr Odinga’s presidential bid twice, the former Vice President was best placed to get the baton as Nasa’s 2022 flag bearer and also inherit Mr Odinga’s political constituency in Nyanza region and across the country.   

MUSALIA MUDAVADI
Political scientist, Prof Amukowa Anangwe observes that Mr Musyoka’s luck lies in his ability to keep Nasa’s “remaining three” in the opposition and emerging captain of the team.

Described in the most unsavoury terms by Central Organisation of Trade Unions Secretary-General Francis Atwoli as “a pig that is washed but gets itself back onto the heap of mud”, Mudavadi is one politician, who has a huge baggage of damaging perceptions to fight off.     

Mr Atwoli might have since apologised for his crude remarks, but his sentiments still resonate with many of Mr Mudavadi’s supporters across the country. 

Owing to his close relations with Mr Odinga and the fact that his populous Luhya community has over the last decade voted alongside the neighbouring Luo community of Mr Odinga, some like Suba South MP Millie Odhiambo were convinced that Mr Mudavadi would be the chosen one to inherit Mr Odinga’s vote base.

The vocal legislator, same as many Nasa supporters, believes Mr Mudavadi would have run away with Nasa’s ticket on January 30th had he shown up at Uhuru Park.    

WETANG'ULA
Terming him a master of reinvention, Prof Anangwe believes this is Mudavadi’s best moment to ascend to the highest office in the land.

“Kenyans are in dire need of an effective opposition and given the dicey nature of our politics, one cannot rule out Mudavadi as a strong contender for presidency,” the ex-Cabinet minister said.

He is the ‘weakest’ link among the Nasa politicians, a factor that perhaps persuaded him to defend his Bungoma senatorial seat.

And Mr Wetang’ula could be weakened further politically if he loses the Leader of Minority seat in the Senate as per the scheme of ODM senators.

Despite his diminished chances of making a formidable presidential candidate in 2022, the Ford Kenya leader can indeed mess up the situation as he has warned.

Already a rift is widening among MPs in western Kenya following his planned ouster as Minority Leader.

In the meantime, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri has welcomed the trio to 'join' the government like their counterpart Mr Odinga.