Key factors that will swing crunch 2017 polls

Cord Principals (from left) Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang'ula. Mr Musyoka and Mr Wetang’ula on April 13, 2016 met in Nairobi as the storm over the Opposition’s presidential candidate gained momentum. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE |

What you need to know:

  • Ten factors are likely to influence the next General Election, political experts say.
  • They include ethnic voting patterns, the International Criminal Court (ICC) case facing Deputy President William Ruto, and the voting patterns in the traditional swing-vote regions of Western Kenya, North Eastern, Maasailand and Gusiiland.
  • Just like the 2013 General Election in which President Kenyatta and Mr Ruto rode on the so-called “tyranny of numbers” in their Central Kenya and Rift Valley strongholds to carry the day, the just-concluded voter registration will also play a big part in determining the winner of the 2017 poll.
  • The ICC will on Tuesday rule on a “no case to answer” motion by Mr Ruto and his co-accused, journalist Joshua arap Sang, a decision that will go a long way in influencing the way his supporters will vote next year.

Ten factors are likely to influence the next General Election, political experts say.

They include ethnic voting patterns, the International Criminal Court (ICC) case facing Deputy President William Ruto, and the voting patterns in the traditional swing-vote regions of Western Kenya, North Eastern, Maasailand and Gusiiland.

Just like the 2013 General Election in which President Kenyatta and Mr Ruto rode on the so-called “tyranny of numbers” in their Central Kenya and Rift Valley strongholds to carry the day, the just-concluded voter registration will also play a big part in determining the winner of the 2017 poll.

The ICC will on Tuesday rule on a “no case to answer” motion by Mr Ruto and his co-accused, journalist Joshua arap Sang, a decision that will go a long way in influencing the way his supporters will vote next year.

According to former Law Society of Kenya (LSK) chairman Eric Mutua, a ruling in favour of Mr Ruto is likely to reinvigorate the Jubilee campaign, while a decision against them will work in the opposition’s favour.

“The case facing Mr Ruto at the ICC will, to a large extent, determine the formidability of the Jubilee coalition during the election. If the case is terminated on Tuesday, it will strengthen the Jubilee coalition and give it a lot of time to concentrate on the election. But if he is put on his defence, it will only help to heighten tensions within Jubilee, to Cord’s advantage,” Mr Mutua told the Sunday Nation.

MASS VOTER REGISTRATION EXERCISE

Also, the just-concluded first phase of the mass voter registration exercise in which 1,428,056 new voters were registered and another 493,169 applied to transfer to other stations could be a determinant of the crucial 2017 polls.

According to Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Ahmed Issack Hassan, whichever presidential candidate or political coalition mobilises their supporters not only to register as voters but to turn out on voting day stands a better chance of winning. 

“I cannot take responsibility for parties or individuals who lose elections. As a commission we conduct elections while parties contest elections; whoever mobilises their supporters to not only register but to also vote stands the better chance of winning,” Mr Hassan said.

Results from the one-month exercise shows that Nyanza - considered a Cord stronghold - had 260,634 new voters while Western registered 164,205, Eastern 240,653, Nairobi 134,670, Rift Valley 283,303, Central 192,093, Coast 129,157 and North Eastern 21,428.

Though most Nyanza constituencies posted up to 50 per cent of the IEBC’s targeted numbers in the first phase of registration, Central and the Rift Valley province - largely dominated by President’s Kenyatta’s supporters - posted high numbers too.

“Ethnicity will definitely determine the outcome as past elections have consistently showed that Kenyans vote along ethnic lines,” says Mr Mutua.

SWING-VOTE REGIONS

The manner in which the electorate in the traditional swing-vote regions of Western, Gusiiland, Maasailand and North Eastern cast their ballots will also influence the outcome.

While Western has in the past two elections largely supported Cord leader Raila Odinga, it remains to be seen whether he will retain this support in the face of a re-energised Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and the Kenyatta-Ruto alliance which has been trying to woo the Luhya community to the Jubilee coalition.

Related to this is the question of who Cord will pick as its flagbearer. All the three principals, Mr Odinga, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Mr Moses Wetang’ula, have already declared they will run for the highest office in the land, with the Bungoma senator launching his bid in Kakamega on Saturday.

But Mr Wetang’ula’s campaign has come under a lot of resistance from Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, who maintains that Mr Odinga is the only one of the three with a realistic chance of winning the poll.

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, who is leading Mr Wetang’ula’s campaign, however, insists that the Ford Kenya leader is best placed to wrestle the presidency from Mr Kenyatta.

According to ODM electoral board member Peter Odoyo, the issue of Cord’s presidential candidate will be settled amicably and will not tear apart the coalition.

“Because there are three parties involved, we are of the idea that each of those parties presents its choice of presidential candidate. Thereupon, the three principals will sit down at a roundtable and agree on who is best placed to carry the Cord flag. This is the spirit with which they have conducted their affairs before and we expect them to continue that way because, at the end of the day, we are a team and we need each of them. Whoever of the three principals is picked to fly the Cord flag becomes the first among equals,” says the former Nyakach MP.

Mr Odoyo also argues that this time round, primaries within the three Cord affiliates - ODM, Wiper and Ford Kenya - will be conducted in a very transparent manner.

The violence and rigging claims that characterised the 2013 primaries among the three Cord affiliates was blamed for the poor turnout witnessed in the coalition’s strongholds on March 4, 2013.

“Our nominations (ODM) will start in February 2017,” said Mr Oyoo. “We want to start with our non-stronghold areas like central Kenya before moving to our strongholds. We will try hard to ensure that this exercise is completed by the end of April 2017, or at the very latest early May because the IEBC deadline is May 31, 2017.

“There certainly will be direct nominations. In the past we have tended to give direct nominations to the party chairman and the secretary-general to enable them concentrate on national duties, but this is a decision which will be made by the party’s NEC and the Central Committee. Ours, as the Elections Board, is to implement the resolution of the two organs,” he notes.

MUSLIM VOTE

There is also the battle for the Muslim vote. During the last General Election, the Muslim vote was shared out between the two main candidates, President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, with the Muslim dominated Coast region overwhelmingly backing the latter while the Muslim population in the North and Upper Eastern regions supported Mr Kenyatta.

According to Supreme Council of Kenya Muslims (Supkem) Secretary-General Adan Wachu, Muslims will provide the swing vote in 2017.

“The next polls will be a litmus test for Muslims. The Muslim community has been trying to caucus for some time to ensure that we consolidate our vote. We are working closely with the pastoralists to ensure that together we provide the swing vote,” he said.

“Our youth who have attained voting age are being encouraged to take ID cards and register as voters to ensure that the Muslim voice is felt come 2017. This is happening across all the seven former northern frontier districts,” he added.

The emergence of a revitalised Musalia Mudavadi and the findings of the latest opinion poll, which predicts that Mr Kenyatta will win the 2017 elections but miss the 50 per cent plus one requirement, has raised questions about the possibility of a “Third Force” determining the poll outcome.

The poll, conducted by Infotrak Research and Consulting and released last weekend, shows that Mr Kenyatta would win the 2017 poll by 44.5 per cent, way below the required 50 per cent plus one vote.

The poll shows that Mr Odinga would emerge as Mr Kenyatta’s closest competitor with 27.8 per cent popularity level.

It also shows that Mr Musyoka has 2.5 support as a presidential candidate, Peter Kenneth 2.2 per cent, Wetang’ula 1.1 per cent, Martha Karua 0.7 per cent and Mudavadi 0.5 per cent.

Both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga have dismissed the poll as a ploy by the Jubilee Government to prepare the ground for rigging.

MUDAVADI FACTOR

Mr Mudavadi’s re-emergence is said to be sending ripples especially in Western province where he draws his largest support, with an outspoken ODM MP questioning the source of his funding.

“We are shocked by the amount of money Mr Mudavadi is moving around with. We expect that his former allies in 2013 who drove him out of ODM are back,” said the MP who sought anonymity for fear of appearing to be fighting his fellow tribesman.

Also not to be ruled out are the campaign issues, key among them corruption, which has bedevilled the Jubilee Government in recent months.

The fact that Mr Odinga has been particularly vocal about corruption within the Jubilee administration, unearthing the alleged Eurobond scandal and the theft of Sh791 million at the National Youth Service, suggests corruption may be his biggest campaign weapon.

Veteran pollster Tom Wolf also raises the issue of undecided voters, the competition for votes at the county level and the likelihood of violence as having a major impact on the poll.

“A further factor that I think will be even more important than in 2013 is the county-level competition, both for encouraging turnout and for promoting, or resisting, direct linkages to national campaigns. In this regard, security issues (fears of violence) are also extremely important. And of course, various forms of malpractice cannot be ruled out, either!

“Note, too, that in the recent Infotrak poll some 20 per cent declared they were undecided. To some extent this reflects the lack of clarity on the Opposition side about their presidential pair, but it may reflect a lack of enthusiasm for any of the now-potential candidates. So, is there room for any ‘Third Force’? (for example, Ekuru Aukot’s recent announcement),” asks the Ipsos Synovate lead researcher.

“In our last (November) survey, we obtained only 13 per cent for this option, but still it’s quite large. So it will be interesting to track it, as well as to explore what it is that this section of the electorate is waiting for. We shall attempt to do this soon,” he states.