Key issues that will shape Kenya's politics for next five years

President Uhuru Kenyatta greets his Deputy William Ruto on arrival for the swearing in ceremony at Kasarani Stadium on November 28, 2017. PHOTO | CHARLES KIMANI | DPPS

What you need to know:

  • The first three weeks of the year have been dominated by calls for dialogue.
  • He said this should not be in the dysfunctional manner of a coalition government with many centres of power.

The clamour for an expanded Executive, Mt Kenya’s support for Deputy President William Ruto in 2022 and whether or not Opposition leader Raila Odinga will contest the presidency for the fifth time are set to dominate the political discourse in the next five years.

The first three weeks of the year have been dominated by calls for dialogue and Mr Odinga’s persistent threat to swear himself in as a president of sorts.

Following the protracted tension resulting from the acrimonious 2017 presidential elections, a slowdown in economic growth and a “wait-and-see” attitude of investors, some politicians across the political divide are giving thought to the idea of making presidential elections less of a vicious contest in which the loser is thrown into the political cold for the next five years.

REFORM

Almost inevitably, this could start with the National Super Alliance’s national convention of people’s assemblies in Nairobi on January 30, during which Mr Odinga says he will be “sworn in.”

“If it is something that can happen, the swearing-in will generate momentum for the people’s assembly,” said National Assembly Minority Leader John Mbadi.

Nasa sees the People’s Assembly as the equivalent of the Ufungamano Initiative, which in the 1990s successfully pushed for constitutional reforms.

Nasa has identified electoral justice, reforms in the Judiciary and Police, strengthening devolution, expanding the Executive to create position of Prime Minister and national inclusivity as the key issues which the much sought-after dialogue should revolve around.

Mr Mbadi said that from his interactions with colleagues from Jubilee, the ruling party could start warming up to the idea of changing the Constitution in about two years, by which time the political temperatures will have cooled.

REFORMS

Nasa’s main targets in such a case, according to the Suba South MP, would be reforms in the election procedure and the system of governance.

Benjamin Washiali, Jubilee’s Chief Whip in the National Assembly, said the idea would be to make elections less of a do-or-die affair by creating positions to accommodate more leaders.

“As legislators, we must make the next elections acceptable to Kenyans. We must also make investors in this country comfortable so that they don’t get scared whenever elections are about to take place so that the economy should not be affected by the political season,” said Mr Washiali.

Moses Kuria, the Gatundu South MP, sees the problems as stemming from what political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi refers to as the Ferrari Presidency – the situation where the country is being driven by two people to the exclusion of everybody else.

“Whether we want it or not it must change. We must change the leadership at the top. We need to move to that Probox presidency, where we have slightly more people in the car,” said Mr Kuria.

RISKY AFFAIR

He said this should not be in the dysfunctional manner of a coalition government with many centres of power in the Executive but a more flexible system that would make elections “a less risky affair.”

“Elections are now a perilous affair. They are hazardous, actually. We have won fairly but the push for electoral reform is not really about reforms. It is just people who feel left out of government,” he said.

Murithi Mutiga, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention think tank, sees the prolonged stalemate as characteristic of every presidential election in Kenya over the last 10 years.

“The question the nation must confront is a structural one: Is a winner-take-all system of presidential elections suitable for a country as ethnically divided as Kenya?” he posed.

The church has in the past called for a change that would provide for the formation of an all-inclusive government that brings together winners and losers.

While Nasa’s moves point towards the sort of thinking that would trigger changes to the constitution, it is hard to tell when the idea will gain momentum.

OPPOSITION

In the opposition coalition, the question is whether or not Mr Odinga will be the presidential candidate to face Jubilee’s William Ruto.

A sign that this will be a key issue was highlighted on Friday in Machakos during the launch of the People’s Assembly when Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana proded Mr Odinga to publicly state if he will support Mr Musyoka’s candidature.

“We know that the priority is on the swearing in on January 30 because we all want electoral justice. We support our principals Raila and (Musalia) Mudavadi but Baba with all due respect we ask that when all is done, in 2022 what we agreed on Kalonzo should come to pass,” said Prof Kibwana.

“Let us see signs that you are supporting Kalonzo when you take office and I will retire happily as an advisor to the government as I take care of my grandchildren,” the Wiper Party chairman said.

Even though in his reply Mr Odinga asked the people to concentrate on reclaiming the ‘stolen victory’ rather than the 2022 succession politics, he indicated that he could support the Wiper leader.

“We are talking about our August 8 victory. Professor has asked me to address the issue of 2022. Please professor, we have killed an antelope but someone ran away with it. We want to get it and slaughter it for Kenyans to eat. In 2022 we will help Kalonzo to hunt for the animal in the bush,” he said.

NEXT PRESIDENT

However, in Kakamega, four Amani National Congress MPs were drumming up support for Mr Mudavadi’s candidature in 2022. Mr Ayub Savula (Lugari), Christopher Aseka (Khwisero), Justus Murunga (Matungu) and Titus Khamala (Lurambi) said Luhyas should come together to produce the next president.

“The people of Central region have all rallied behind Jubilee and Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, those in Rift Valley are supporting Mr William Ruto. Our brothers from Nyanza support ODM and Raila Odinga while the Kamba are standing with Kalonzo Musyoka. Why can’t we all (Luhyas) come together and support our spokesperson, Mr Mudavadi?” Mr Murunga posed.

In Jubilee, the issue about whether or not Mt Kenya region will rally behind Mr Ruto for the presidency is already causing jitters. Recently, the DP took to twitter to tell off MPs who have started the 2022 succession politics in the ruling party.

“Kenyans, more so Jubilee, should avoid useless political debates about positions including 2022,” he said.