Merger of parties might give Uhuru an easier second term

The creation of the Jubilee Party, a merger of 12 parties one week ago, has created a trail of winners and losers within the ruling coalition in a development that promises to alter the country’s political landscape.

President Uhuru Kenyatta emerges as the first winner. While no one knows the outcome of the presidential poll set for August 8 next year, the President has made a huge step that could save him the curse of lacking numbers in Parliament should he secure a second term in office.

The behemoth he is setting up will likely see an almost complete sweep of parliamentary seats in Central Kenya and Rift Valley where, together with Deputy President William Ruto, they draw the bulk of their support.

With pockets of support from other regions, he could avoid a scenario his predecessor Mwai Kibaki found himself in after the 2007 elections when the main opposition party ODM had an upper hand in the House against PNU.

What the President’s men have in mind, we gather, is a situation where they may not need to scout for a party with which to enter into a post-election pact to boost the numbers in the Legislature.

While the merger is largely a play by the Deputy President to inherit his boss’s Central Kenya support base, observers in opposition say it is a gamble given the ever-changing nature of the country’s political landscape.

Politicians from Central Kenya, like Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, have already said that Mr Ruto must pick someone from the region as his running mate for 2022. It goes without saying that their allegiance may shift in case the DP looks in a different direction.

Founding officials of the Jubilee Alliance Party (JAP), which was transformed to Jubilee Party last weekend, have been some of the beneficiaries of the merger.

The Sunday Nation has gathered from one of Mr Kenyatta’s confidantes that they will be retained in the top-most decision making body, the executive committee, as others are brought in to give the organ a national outlook. It is currently populated largely by those from Mr Kenyatta’s and Mr Ruto’s backyards.

The officials are Mr Nelson Dzuya (chairman), Mr David Murathe (vice-chairman), Mr Alfred Kipkorir (treasurer), Ms Pamela Mutua (organising secretary), Mr Nixon Korir (executive director) and Ms Veronica Maina (secretary-general).

RAKE IN MILLIONS

But those who choose to run next year like Mr Caleb Kositany, the deputy secretary-general who has his eyes trained on the Turbo parliamentary seat, will have to forego their seats.

Parties in Jubilee-controlled areas who refused to merge will rake in millions of shillings from aspirants who will be unwilling to face their opponents in the monolith party.

Already, some MPs have indicated they will be seeking to defend their seats on tickets of other parties such as Kanu, DP and PNU with presence in the Mount Kenya region and Rift Valley as reality of banned party hopping sinks in.

It is only time that will tell whether taking on candidates sponsored by JP in those areas will be suicidal for such aspirants.

They may be relegated in the wider scheme of things as their opponents with the advantage of support from the centre of power will likely associate them with Mr Kenyatta’s rivals like Mr Raila Odinga to win.
On the other hand, there are those who pull surprises and end up winning despite being viewed as underdogs. JP candidates will, therefore, underrate such individuals at their own peril.
For instance, in 2013 Mr Elisha Busienei went against the grain in Turbo constituency and humiliated Mr Kositany at the URP nominations. Mr Kositany had the backing of the Deputy President.

At the same time, one disadvantage of dissolving their parties will be loss of direct revenue previously controlled by party officials. Parties usually enjoy financial bonanza during elections as all candidates are expected to pay nomination fees. They also benefit from cash donations even from outside the country.

Aspirants for governor seeking nomination pay an average of Sh300,000, those eyeing the senate pay about Sh250,000 as National Assembly candidates give the parties Sh100,000. The figures vary slightly from party to party.

The move by Mr Kenyatta not to name elected leaders and those aspiring for such positions next year as officials of JP also gives room for little-known individuals to blossom. In the same way the likes of former TNA chairman Johnson Sakaja and former URP secretary- general Fred Muteti – hardly known before their appointments – rose to prominence.

National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale states that the move, while meant to forestall conflict during nominations, will also help bring in a new breed of leaders.

NURTURING TALENT

“That is what sets us apart. We believe in nurturing talent because we know leaders come and go yet we have a country to take forward,” he says.
It also emerged that those who were officials of the dissolved parties who plan to run for office next year will have a say on who occupies the slots awarded to their parties.

They will not themselves be named officials. Those close to the President have also said that current elected leaders will not as well make it to the list for the same reason. But they will be co-opted in the national oversight board where they will not interfere with the daily operations.

It means that people like Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka, who has expressed interest in the position of secretary-general, and other Jubilee-allied politicians like Mumias East MP Ben Washiali may suggest a name of who takes up the position from among their supporters in the event Mr Kenyatta and his deputy decide that the holder of the seat should come from western.

Or it could be Mr Kenyatta supplying the name should they agree that the secretary-general hails from Central Kenya. Mr Ruto’s allies also want the seat. The same would be replicated for the other positions.

But the marriage of the parties, all rooting for re-election of President Kenyatta next year, has also resulted in one crucible made up of strange bedfellows with a high propensity for conflict if not managed well.

Already, there is growing suspicion among members of the folded parties, something that will force Mr Kenyatta, who is the party leader, to step in and further reassure them.

The delay in naming a new interim office of the Jubilee Party one week after the launch is not helping matters either.

The Sunday Nation has learnt that the decision not to entrust elected leaders and aspirants with running of the affairs of the party meant that more time is needed to head-hunt the interim caretakers.

Indicating that the new line-up is the prerogative of the presidential duo, Mr Murathe said the murmurs were premature and misplaced.

“We acknowledge that, as currently constituted, the office does not reflect the face of Kenya. It will change very soon with all regions being represented but again things must not be rushed to please a few people,” he said.

The Political Parties Act bars anyone from registering a party bearing a name similar to those that merged for a period of eight years. It means there can be no party in the name of TNA, URP, UDF or New Ford-Kenya.