Musalia Mudavadi: The new face of opposition or an opportunist?

Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi may well be living up to his political campaign slogan “ebindu bichenjanga" (things change).

Known for his caution and mild-manner, the one-time vice president appears to have dropped his guard and has in recent weeks been a hard-hitting critic of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration and of opposition leader Raila Odinga.

Mr Mudavadi, nicknamed 'MaDVD' by some, has been at it consistently — almost single-handedly — for quite some time now.

With fellow Nasa co-principals Mr Odinga (ODM) and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) opting to work with Mr Kenyatta, the ANC leader appears to be building his profile as the credible opposition voice in the post-handshake era.

TAXES

Mr Mudavadi is also keen to project himself as a national leader after the Luhya unity efforts of Bungoma Senator and Nasa co-principal Moses Wetang’ula, whose heft was diminished following his ouster as Senate Minority Leader in March, failed.

“Musalia Mudavadi is the only opposition leader who now speaks like he means well for Kenyans. What the rest are doing is like committing a crime against Kenyans," former National Assembly Minority Leader Jakoyo Midiwo observed on Tuesday during an NTV talk show on taxation.

It was a surprising statement from Mr Midiwo, who has in the past not had kind words for Mr Mudavadi.

Before MPs took a crucial decision on the President’s proposed amendments to the Financial Bill, 2018 on September 20, Mr Mudavadi held a press conference warning the Jubilee administration against burdening Kenyans with taxes.

In previous instances, the Nasa leaders would have released a joint statement.

This came as Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka announced their support for the higher taxes despite opposition from some of their MPs.

CABINET

Mr Mudavadi is also on record calling on Mr Kenyatta to disband his entire Cabinet for pushing through “policies that are harmful to the people of Kenya”.

Alternatively, he asked MPs, in a recent press release, to impeach Mr Kenyatta’s Cabinet.

And Mr Mudavadi is not just talking tough, he has also greatly changed his “modus operandi”.

This is evident in his press releases, in which he signs off as “Founder of Nasa”.

Only last weekend, during the funeral of one-time Education Permanent Secretary George Godia, he took a jibe at Mr Odinga, who was present, and members of his Orange party, for behaving “as if they were more Jubilee than the Jubilee elected legislators themselves”.

Mr Mudavadi was referring to drama in the National Assembly two weeks ago where ODM and Jubilee-allied MPs joined hands to shoot down the President’s amendments to the Finance Bill.

OPPOSITION

Reached for comment on his latest hardline stance, he maintained that he had not changed his approach.

“I have remained consistent with issues that I consider critical to Kenyans. Only that my voice has been muzzled in the cacophony before. Indeed, I have stated before that I am not afraid to be in opposition despite the current stampede to be associated with government in opposition ranks.”

Nonetheless, National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed argues that Mr Mudavadi is simply part of the opposition and not its face.

“It is a fact that his party is in the opposition. It is also a fact that ANC is a member of Nasa, which did not form government after boycotting the second round of presidential elections last year. Mudavadi is, therefore, an opposition leader who is rightly placed to speak against ills attributed to the Jubilee government.”

However, former Cabinet minister Amukowa Anangwe says Mr Mudavadi is clearly positioning himself as the de facto opposition leader.

Whether he will be able to do so effectively is still a moot question, “considering that he is just beginning to assert himself in that mould”.

OBSTACLES

Nonetheless, Prof Anangwe, who teaches political science at the University of Dodoma in Tanzania, says several obstacles stand in the way of the former VP.

“Of course Raila's way of doing opposition politics may not necessarily be the only template available. Musalia (Mr Mudavadi) could choose to do it differently. He also needs to redeem his past image of an indecisive and overcautious leader with aversion for political controversies,” says Prof Anangwe.

Either way, the political scientist thinks it is too early to judge whether or not Mr Mudavadi will be an effective opposition leader.

That he is already being targeted for attack by politicians allied to Deputy President William Ruto — considered front-runner in the 2022 presidential race — is an indicator that he could be an emerging political threat.

Speaking in Garissa County on Thursday, National Assembly’s Majority Leader Aden Duale questioned Mr Mudavadi’s integrity when he was Finance minister and asked the ANC leader to stop attacking Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich.

AUTONOMY

His ambitions notwithstanding, Mr Odinga remains a most influential political figure with a solid base which, curiously, Mr Mudavadi must strive to inherit or win over to make a potent stab at the presidency.

In fact Prof Anangwe advises that much as he tries to project the image of an independent politician, Mr Mudavadi must be alive to the reality that the Orange party leader and President Kenyatta remain his greatest assets.

“Musalia has to conduct his politics delicately. He has to demonstrate to Kenyans that he is his own man.”