New year crucial for Raila’s fifth power bid

As Mr Raila Odinga celebrates his 75th birthday next week, at the back of his mind might be the realisation that time is not on his side in regard to his presidential quest.

He will, however, remain firmly in the spotlight as the dawn of a New Year signals the beginning of a concerted push for implementation of the Building Bridges Initiative report.

It is a process that could bring the ODM leader into direct confrontation with Deputy President William Ruto as political realignments take shape ahead of the 2022 elections, and also pose severe tests for his budding friendship with President Uhuru Kenyatta.

The release of the BBI report at the end of November was supposed to be a crowning moment for Mr Odinga, who was the prime mover of proposed constitutional changes.

It was also a validation of the March 2018 ''handshake'' with President Kenyatta that symbolised the end of dynastic feuds and the beginning of a process towards national healing and reconciliation.

That the BBI report was welcomed all round — including by Dr Ruto who, hitherto, stood out as an arch-foe of an Uhuru-Raila pact he feared might sideline him — indicated smooth sailing towards implementation.

ODM PROPOSALS

Nothing could be further from the truth. Mr Odinga’s public show of support was just a brave face masking some deep disappointment.

The recommendations by the BBI task force did not accommodate many of the key proposals presented by Mr Odinga and his ODM party, in particular relating to return of a prime minister exercising executive authority backed by at least two deputies, and creation of yet another layer of devolved units in some 14 new regional governments.

The BBI report proposed a prime minister who would be a mere functionary reporting to the President, and new laws governing the creation of voluntary regional economic blocs rather than formal governance structures.

The BBI report came amidst unverified stories that before release, it was watered down following intervention of key political advisers around State House detailed to ensure that it did not make radical proposals, especially those that would lead to a divisive referendum.

Anyway, the point is that privately, Mr Odinga made his unhappiness known, but undertook to hold his peace on condition that both he and the President point out that the document was not final and would still be open to further rounds of public consultation and revision.

REVISION OF REPORT

In mid-December, President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga jointly announced tenure extension for the BBI task force, mandating it to drive further public hearings, engage experts to refine the documents, and devise an implementation plan.

The extension was not well received by Dr Ruto’s supporters, who had already voiced unqualified endorsement of the initial report.

They, correctly, read in it a window for Mr Odinga to have the report amended to his liking.

This is where a fresh battleground is likely to erupt, with further discussion on BBI tied to emerging alignments ahead of the 2022 elections.

Mr Odinga will obviously play a critical role in the push for revision of the BBI report, but it remains to be seen whether he will have solid backing from President Kenyatta, who may not necessarily share his views on radical reshaping of the national executive or the stomach for a referendum.

The opposition chief will also have to navigate the tricky issue of BBI implementation through new laws or constitutional amendments when he knows that it would be difficult to get anything through a Parliament where Dr Ruto commands the numbers.

POPULAR INITIATIVE

The alternative would be to try and bypass Parliament by pushing for a referendum through a Popular Initiative, like the Punguza Mizigo drive unsuccessfully pushed last year by Dr Ekuro Aukot’s Thirdway Alliance.

Mr Odinga was also previously involved in a Popular Initiative, the 2015 Okoa Kenya drive by the then opposition Cord alliance, which however failed to proceed to the county assemblies stage after failing to garner the required one million signatures.

Various public statements indicate Mr Odinga prefers a citizens’ petition rather than Parliament.

It will require a great deal of public mobilisation which, in the few months, could put the country on a virtual campaign footing.

A petition drive or early referendum campaign will serve as a curtain raiser to the 2022 elections.

It will lead to formation of groupings indicative of the alliances expected to be in contention come the next polls.

TIME FACTOR

Keenly watched will be where Mr Odinga’s allies in the now fractured Nasa coalition — 2013 and 2017 running mate and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula — line up.

It might also force Mr Odinga to come out and openly declare where he stands on the presidential elections.

Although he is widely believed to present the main challenge to Dr Ruto, he has never actually declared his presidential candidacy.

In any case his candidacy might be a moot point if he successfully pushes for a parliamentary system and then guns for the office of prime minister elected by the National Assembly.

He will be conscious that time is not on his side. The BBI task force has some 18 months to conclude, which would make planning for a referendum or actual implementation dangerously close, just one year, to the 2022 election countdown.

The time factor might actually dictate Mr Odinga’s push for fast-tracking, as it is obvious a process that takes too long will intrude into the electoral period.

CAMPAIGN RALLY

The next few weeks and months will, therefore, be crucial, and one can expect that Mr Odinga’s office will be extremely busy.

Since the handshake, it has been a magnet for political delegations from all corners of the country coming in to voice support, seek support or find places in emerging alliances.

Already, a countrywide series of political rallies might be on the cards to mobilise support for BBI even before the task force gets down to work.

How things shape up may well be indicated by the rally set for Kakamega later this month, which is shaping up as designed to win the support of the populous Luhya community not just for BBI but also for Mr Odinga.

The gathering, supported by Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Central Organisation of Trade Union boss Francis Atwoli, has drawn the anger of non-ODM Luhya leaders such as Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula.

OUT OF STEAM

The rallies will also serve as a counterweight to Dr Ruto’s campaign jaunts across the country, and will be as much about preparing the ground for Mr Odinga’s probably final bid for power as about selling BBI.

Mr Odinga will be 77 at the next polls, with four unsuccessful presidential bids to his name in 1997, 2007, 2013 and 2017.

The year 2022 will likely be a last effort, whether for president or prime minister, and the New Year marks the launch of the preparatory stage.