Ruto crunches poll numbers in Tanga Tanga exploits

Deputy President William Ruto has often reminded political opponents that “msipojipanga mtapangwa (if you do not plan ahead, you will get fixed).

And despite his boss President Uhuru Kenyatta dissuading him against premature campaigns, Dr Ruto is in top flight and is already crunching poll numbers.

In the past six months, Dr Ruto has turned his political guns on western Kenya, northern parts of Rift Valley, central Kenya and the rural coastal region. And it is not hard to see why.

Those regions have the numbers he needs and it is not hard to see why his strategists have been working to bring them to his side.

Since 2018, Dr Ruto has publicly visited Mount Kenya region for more than 45 times as he seeks to tap into the region’s close to seven million votes.

This is in addition to holding boardroom meetings with the regional leaders at his Karen office and in hotels.

VOTES

According to the 2017 voters register, central region has more than 2.9 million voters and many more are expected to be registered by the year 2022.

Descendants of central Kenya also constitute the majority in other counties such as Nairobi, Laikipia, and Nakuru, making it a rich voting bloc for Dr Ruto.

Mt Kenya East, which includes Meru, Tharaka Nithi and Embu, had close to 1.5 million votes. In eastern, Meru tops with 702,480, Tharaka Nithi 213,154, Embu 309,468.

Among the Mt Kenya counties Dr Ruto has been spending time in is Kiambu, which has 1.1 million votes and from where he has cultivated a band of loyal supporters like Governor Ferdinand Waititu and Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wa.

He even defended the governor against claims of misuse of funds.

The majority of the 80 elected leaders (53 MPs, nine senators, nine women reps and nine governors) in the region are aligned to Dr Ruto, while a few others are in the Kieleweke team neutral.

But his actions have caused the split of Jubilee into both Tanga Tanga and Kieleweke teams.

BONI KHALWALE

If combined with his Rift Valley backyard, which had 4.6 million votes by last elections, the Deputy President could have more than seven million votes to tap into.

In western Kenya, the DP’s hunt for the two million votes has involved poaching politicians from Nasa.

His latest political harvest is vocal former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, who jumped ship from Ford-Kenya where he was deputy party leader, just when the lion party had instituted disciplinary proceedings against him for championing the political agenda of the DP in western Kenya.

Dr Khalwale emphasises his newfound boss’ philosophy of kujipanga mapema (to plan early).

“Unlike previous instances where politicians defect at the last minute before the polls, we discussed this over (with DP) and agreed it was prudent to join the Ruto campaign early in order to give it meaningful direction and impetus.”

CLOUT

Indeed, the self-proclaimed bullfighter has hit the ground running, trying to dismantle the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, Raila Odinga’s hold on the populous Luhya vote and at the same time discredit political credentials of local heavyweights, Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford-Kenya counterpart, Moses Wetang’ula.

“The earlier we (Luhya community) identify ourselves with Ruto the better. We need to get in early and secure a good sitting area ahead of many others who are rushing to his camp,” said Dr Khalwale.

While ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and a host of Luhya politicians dismiss Dr Khalwale’s defection as inconsequential, Dr Edward Kisiang’ani, a political affairs commentator, warns of the potential danger of the bullfighter supporting the presidential bid of an “outsider candidate”.

“Khalwale’s role is well cut out — to instigate revolution against Odinga, who has enjoyed political support of the Mulembe nation (Luhya) for over a decade, and dissuade the people against rallying behind kinsmen Mudavadi and Wetang’ula who are perceived as political weaklings.

"Khalwale has the capacity to deliver on these fronts and one can only dismiss him at their own peril,” says the Kenyatta University lecturer.

AISHA JUMWA

The DP has also adopted the same strategy in wooing the 1.7 million Coast votes — poaching politicians from rival parties. Of particular interest to the DP is Kilifi’s 508,608 votes, the second-highest in Coast after Mombasa.

Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa, who firmly joined the Ruto stable late last year from the largest opposition party ODM, is the face of the fight for Kilifi.

She too has a designated duty in the Ruto line-up.

So valuable is this team player that she has become a foremost member of the DP’s entourage, who has accompanied him to virtually every corner of the country.

University of Nairobi’s political science lecturer, Dr George Katete, points out that the poaching of Khalwale and Jumwa is not accidental. The two, explains Dr Katete, are specific targets aimed at depleting the opposition of skilled public speakers and crowd pullers.

“The strategy by the DP’s handlers is to particularly eat into the ODM zone, with a view to weakening the opposition’s pre-2022 campaigns while strengthening the Ruto campaign. This move is persuaded by the perception that Raila will be Ruto’s key challenger,” says Dr Katete singling out Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok as the latest statistic in this strategy.

BACKERS

The ODM allied governor announced on May 12 during the DP’s tour of his county that he is going to support his presidential bid.

Mr Nanok explained the need for people of the wider Rift Valley region, where Dr Ruto hails from, to support one of their own.

Indeed, the “one of our own” lobby is another ploy that the DP has used to rally Rift Valley voters behind his bid.

This lobby recently netted Trans Nzoia Governor Patrick Khaemba as well.

The Ford-Kenya allied governor says he will work with Dr Ruto “for the sake of development” in Trans Nzoia and will support the DP’s bid.

Also in the mix is Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa, who recently called on the Luhya in Trans Nzoia County to support a neighbour “mwenye tunaweza omba unga wa kupika ugali (from whom we can ask for maize flour to prepare ugali)”. The county had 339,622 votes in the last poll.

The stands by Mr Khaemba and Mr Wamalwa, who reportedly wants to succeed the former as governor in 2022, have however generated political heat in the cosmopolitan county, largely occupied by members of the Luhya, Sabaot and Kalenjin communities.

STRATEGY

Pokot South MP David Pkosing, who has been accompanying Dr Ruto in tours across the country, claims the DP enjoys a near fervent reception across the country.

The Jubilee-allied legislator attributes the good reception to the DP’s sociable and down-to-earth approach.

“Initially, the reception was not so good in some parts of the country. But with repeated trips and change of strategy — especially the hustler mentality — Kenyans are embracing Dr Ruto in droves. The people are yearning for leadership from one of their own — a son of a poor man and not the princes from rich backgrounds,” says Mr Pkosing.

In protecting his gains and in winning over new players, Dr Ruto has also resorted to what critics consider as open defence of corruption suspects.

But Senate Minority Whip Mutula Kilonzo Jnr warns against the actions and utterances of the DP, stating they amount to interference in the independence of the Senate and other oversight institutions.

Such entities, he stressed, ought to be allowed to operate freely. “As the country’s deputy head, Ruto needs to weigh his words carefully. Otherwise, his comments are bound to be interpreted to mean the Senate committee and investigative agencies are not serious entities,” says the Makueni senator.

CORRUPTION

However, National Assembly Minority Leader John Mbadi claims the DP “has not even pretended that he is fighting or wants to fight graft”.

Citing the lifestyle audit declared by the President, Mr Mbadi reckons the DP lamented the planned exercise was targeting him and members of his community.

“He came out without any ambiguity to state that the war is targeting him. The DP knows better; he is a self-confessed architect of corruption,” alleges Mbadi, who is also the ODM party chairman.

But even as the DP continues to win numbers on his side, former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto dismisses those crossing over to the DP as political greenhorns “who cannot influence their respective regions”.

Speaking on Wednesday night on a local live TV show, the former Chairman of the Council of Governors advised the DP to negotiate with political heavyweights, the calibre of Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, if he hopes to make an impact in the 2022 polls.

He also warned him against relying on support from the “elusive” central Kenya bloc.

Dr Ruto has curiously given a wide berth to Nyanza and Ukambani regions, the rural political backyards of Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka. Dr Ruto is also yet to crack a formula for the dicey Nairobi County politics.

Additional reporting by Joseph Wangui