Intrigues behind Uhuru, Raila dialogue that never was

President Uhuru Kenyatta and Nasa leader Raila Odinga, now miles apart, were at some point last month moments away from having one-on-one talks to end the incessant bickering that threatens to impact the economy.

Multiple interviews with individuals from the church and foreign envoys at the heart of the failed attempts to get the two to directly engage revealed that the politicians had, through emissaries, broadly agreed on the need to meet and calm the soaring political temperatures in the country after a protracted electioneering period but disagreement on having electoral justice on the agenda dashed such prospects.

The National Super Alliance had insisted that the question of electoral justice be on the agenda as they claimed that they had won the August polls fair and square and that were it not for Jubilee’s deploying the state to steal the vote, Mr Odinga would be the president today.

REFORMS
Unbeknown to most Kenyans, and in the deal mostly pushed by the international community, the President had initially indicated willingness to sit down with Mr Odinga to discuss most of Nasa’s agenda, particularly on strengthening devolution, firming the Judiciary and police reforms.

At some point, the insiders said, the talks looked so likely that a tentative date for a meeting was even set but was later called off as both parties were reportedly out of Nairobi.

Such hopes were said to have been there even a few days to January 30 when Mr Odinga “swore himself in” as the “people’s president”.

Mr Kenyatta’s discomfort with the subject of electoral justice, sources said, was informed by two issues.

Firstly, his Jubilee Party believed it was a decoy for Nasa to insist on another election most likely later in the year or next year, which the President’s party would not entertain.

There was also concern that Deputy President William Ruto was completely opposed to instituting any changes that could put road blocks to his chances of succeeding Mr Kenyatta in 2022.

DEVOLUTION
But a source from the European Union intimated that the general feeling of the envoys was that the two parties could begin talks with issues agreeable to both sides, particularly the question of strengthening devolution.

Nasa however wanted everything on the table.

What has since followed is brazen disregard of the law by both President Kenyatta’s regime and the opposition coalition, a phenomenon that has seen the State unleash a campaign to stem dissent.

A source familiar with US ambassador Robert Godec’s itinerary put at 12 the number of times he either met with Mr Odinga or his co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula to dissuade them from taking the “oath”.

The source said in most of the meetings, Mr Godec briefed Mr Kenyatta on progress and reported back to the Opposition.

The US ambassador was the major force behind the dialogue push.

OATH
This happened even as it emerged that the Principal Deputy assistant Secretary at the US government’s Bureau of African Affairs Donald Yamamoto personally intervened to have the three coalition partners skip the mock swearing-in of Mr Odinga on January 30.

Close allies said the three were threatened with sanctions if they ignored the plea.

Mr Odinga however ignored calls to cancel the fete, which has opened another chapter of faceoff with the government that has so far seen passports of about 15 Nasa leaders suspended and Dr Miguna Miguna – the self-declared general of Nasa offshoot National Resistance Movement – deported to Canada.

Sources in the diplomatic, religious and business circles who pushed for talks between the two sides have spoken of a deal that once looked so close but now so far but which they believe can be revived.

Nasa had also wanted the business and religious community teams, assembled by diplomats, reconstituted as they argued that they were largely pro-Jubilee.

CHURCH LEADERS
The Opposition wanted Anglican Archbishop Jackson ole Sapit and the Kisumu catholic bishop Zacheaus Okoth included in the religious team.

Further, they felt the team needed to be leaner otherwise it would be a talking shop.

On Friday, the church was still pushing the two politicians to talk the country out of the impasse.

At some stage, the Central Organisation of Trade Unions also joined the fray with its secretary-general Francis Atwoli writing to both Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga pleading with them to meet and avert a looming crisis.

Mr Atwoli was later to say although the Nasa leader responded declaring readiness to talk, the President did not.

DICTATORSHIP
Before the situation deteriorated, the US embassy reported that America had already set aside Sh60 million for the talks, with Germany and UK also expected to put in more.

On Saturday, Mr Odinga expressed rare hope that despite the growing rift between them and the government side, it was not impossible to have talks.

“It remains our hope in Nasa that Jubilee will come out of denial and accept that this country is too divided and too bitter at the state of our politics to move forward.

"The country is being held back by people in Jubilee who think that being declared a winner and handed so-called instruments of power is all it takes to run a country.

"That is the group that promised us a rough five years in the name of benevolent dictatorship. It won’t work and this country should have started a conversation with itself yesterday,” he told Sunday Nation.

As the situation has degenerated in recent days, the fate of the dialogue remains unknown with high-ranking Jubilee leaders like the DP saying time for politicking was over and it was time the country got down to work.

DEVELOPMENT
Jubilee vice chairman David Murathe insisted that their position concerning dialogue had not changed and they were opposed to any engagements with Nasa concerning the last polls.

Last week, Mr Ruto said at the burial of Ms Yvonne Wamalwa, the widow of the vice president Wamalwa Kijana, that the window for talks had closed.

“We are ready to talk to our friends in the Opposition on how millions of Kenyans can get jobs, eliminate food insecurity, how to transform the National Hospital Insurance Fund, accessible healthcare and manufacturing among other development projects.

"That’s the discussion we want. But dialogue on who will be the Deputy President or President, or who will be who.

"We are not qualified. It’s the people who decide and they decided last year that President Uhuru Kenyatta is their President. That’s all,” the DP said.

DIVISION
In their response to the “swearing-in”, both the EU and US demanded that Kenyans embark on dialogue to save the country and end tension.

They further faulted Mr Odinga for disregarding their caution on the move.

In an op-ed published elsewhere in this paper, the western envoys on Saturday renewed calls for the country to have a “national conversation”.

They regretted that both the government and the Opposition had taken steps that had undermined Kenya’s institutions, and driven wedges among its citizens.

“The government, which should be the guarantor of liberty and freedom of expression for all under the law, has shutdown television stations, seized the passports of opposition leaders, refused to obey court orders, and deported a prominent opposition lawyer.

"These events follow two elections that left many Kenyans dead and many more livelihoods disrupted,” they said.