Why efforts to unite the Luhya might bear little fruit

Western Kenya political supremos Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula have started chanting the all-too-familiar “Luhya unity” tune.

Only this time the chants have started rather too early ahead of the next polls – thanks to the political tiff between the Mudavadi-Wetang’ula pair and opposition colleague Raila Odinga.

The move by Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula was not entirely unanticipated.

In fact going by Wetang’ula’s threats that he would face off with his political enemies “mundu khu mundu (man to man)”, after being stripped of his position as senate minority leader by Parliamentary colleagues, it was clear the Ford-Kenya leader was set to play the tribal card.  

MERGER
Wetang’ula claims the people of “Mulembe Nation” in Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Trans Nzoia and Vihiga counties voted overwhelmingly for Mr Odinga in last year’s presidential elections, courtesy of him and Mr Mudavadi.

But instead, Wetang’ula alleges, Mr Odinga has opted to “reward” members of the Luhya community by disrespecting and discarding their leaders.  

The Mudavadi-Wetang’ula duo now want Mr Odinga politically locked out of the land of Mulembe in 2022 for perpetually (mis)using the Luhya community at the ballot.

And the process of actualising this move has kicked off in earnest – thanks to the initiative by Amani National Congress (ANC) and Ford-Kenya allied legislators to merge the two parties. 

According to Lugari MP Ayub Savula, the move is geared at sealing off the “Mulembe nation” from outsider political poachers like Mr Odinga.

ELECTIONS
Once Mudavadi and Wetangula dissolve their parties, Mr Savula says, they will form a giant western Kenya party that will propel one of them to the presidency in 2022.

Savula’s party boss, Mudavadi, concurs by stressing their determination to build a strong and solid outfit that can withstand Kenya’s characteristic political storms.

The former vice-president envisages a formidable political force from western Kenya capable of appealing to all Kenyans, including attracting other senior political players on board such as Mr Kalonzo Musyoka of the Wiper party.

And for Mr Wetang’ula, this is also an opportunity to demonstrate to the 'doubting Thomases' that it is possible to unite the Mulembe nation.

Unlike Mudavadi who appears open to an all-inclusive process, the Ford-Kenya party leader clearly advocates for a Luhya-led outfit that isolates Mr Odinga and supporters from his Luo Nyanza backyard.  

RAILA ONSLAUGHT
It is an open secret that Mr Wetang’ula has a bone to pick with Odinga, whom he has blamed squarely for his exit from the Senate leadership.

When he threw in the towel after opposition senators resolved to replace him by Siaya Senator James Orengo, Mr Wetang’ula vowed to continue giving Mr Odinga “small measured and calculated dosage to ensure he enjoys no comfort”.

And by retreating to his backyard in Bungoma and Vihiga counties to de-campaign the ODM leader, moments after being stripped off the post, Wetang’ula inadvertently sought to make Mr Odinga a campaign issue – yet again – in Luhya land.

Over the last two decades, the election campaigns have been hinged on the hate or love for Odinga, and not a people’s agenda for the region.

And judging from the timing of anti-Odinga campaigns in western Kenya by Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi, there is no doubt voter mobilisation ahead of 2022 is once again premised on the Odinga factor.

DEVELOPMENT
Terming it an abuse of the intelligence of the Luhya community, ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna faults political leaders in western Kenya for focusing on their personal relations and hate for certain individuals at the expense of useful development agenda for the electorate.    

Noting that members of the Luhya community have a right to choose whom to politically associate with and acknowledging the importance of Luhya unity, Sifuna nonetheless regrets that the current unity efforts have kicked off on a wrong premise.

The Luhya, he argues, will only make it politically by teaming up with the rest and not by isolating long-term and potential allies.       

Looked at from Sifuna’s point of view, it is actually foolhardy at this point in time when communities are merging with a view to expand their political constituency, for Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang'ula to do the exact opposite by splitting into smaller voting blocs.   

POLITICAL COMMUNITY
If one has to borrow from the “best practices” locally, not because they are the finest democratic tenets but rather they have proved fruitful in delivering results at the ballot, the instances of Central Kenya and Rift Valley come to mind.

While, for instance, there exists the Kikuyu tribe, politically there is only talk of Central Kenya, which is an amalgamation of several communities including Kikuyu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Nithi and Mbeere.

While this humongous political community has gone further to woo Rift Valley community and is busy eating into the neighbouring Kisii, the Luhya-Luo political community that has since 2007 offered potent political competition to the Central Kenya bloc, is bound to disintegrate into smaller units.

And even as the Luhya leaders run away from the Odinga stranglehold, it remains unclear where this political sprint will land them.

DP RUTO

It may well be a case of a change of masters, from Odinga to Deputy President William Ruto.

The DP’s recent meeting with western Kenya legislators at his Karen home is a pointer to this possibility.

That the delegation was led by none other than Tongaren MP Simiyu Eseli is quite telling.

Dr Eseli is Ford-Kenya’s Secretary-General, and it is unlikely that he can respond to such an overture from a top Jubilee politician without the nod of his party boss, Mr Wetang’ula. 

Which begs the question – is this all about slighting Odinga and ruining his presidential ambitions or a prudent move to bolster chances of a Luhya politician to State House?

VOTES
While ANC, through Mr Savula, has condemned Ford-Kenya’s dalliance with Mr Ruto, Mr Wetang’ula’s party is yet to come clean on the development.

The Deputy President’s overture is just one of the impediments that Mudavadi and Wetang’ula have to overcome in securing the elusive Luhya unity dream.

There is no denying that realisation of political cohesion among the Luhya, the second largest community after the Kikuyu, poses the greatest threat to a host of politicians from other voting blocs.

Meanwhile, as the Luhya political bigwigs push for political cleansing in the western Kenya to emulate counterparts in Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba regions, they seem blind to their unique situation and geopolitical realties of western Kenya.  

Besides the Luhya, the region comprises the Teso and Saboat communities, who have three parliamentary constituencies between them and thousands of the Luo who reside in urban centres and who are part of the fishing communities along Nzoia, Suo rivers and Lake Victoria.

INCLUSIVITY
In fact the latter are so closely related to the Luhya, culturally and even by marriage.

This reality is responsible for the emerging community of the Abaluo – individuals born of a Luhya and Luo parent.

The population of the Abaluo has grown over the years and is even deemed to be larger than some Kenyan communities.

The import of this reality is that the anti-Odinga/ODM campaign in Luhya land cannot succeed 100 per cent. 

Failure of all-inclusive drives in the region has similarly led to the collapse of a number of political and development initiatives.

TESO

During the last Parliament, for instance, the move to set up a “Mulembe” community bank failed to take off owing – partly – to protests by the minorities over the Luhya label of “Mulembe”.

Even in the current unity drive, some legislators are already demonstrating signs of non-cooperation.

Busia County’s Teso South MP Oku Kaunya protests at the drive being labelled as “Luhya unity” on account that the initiative isolates the Teso and members of other communities, who reside in Western Kenya.

Although fruits of a proposed Ford-K and ANC merger are hazy at the national level, at the local level, Mudavadi and Wetangula are likely to enjoy a bountiful harvest come 2022. 

Their failure to team up in last year’s elections, for instance, gave room to Jubilee party to harvest big in the region.

In Kakamega County for instance, Jubilee benefited from the ANC, Ford Kenya and ODM failure to field one candidate, to secure four seats with ANC carrying the day with five seats, ODM (2) and Ford Kenya (1).