Age of lily-livered developmental autocrat is once again here

This photo dated November 5, 2015 shows Tanzania's newly elected president John Magufuli delivering a speech at his swearing-in ceremony in Dar es Salaam on November 5, 2015. PHOTO | DANIEL HAYDUK | AFP

What you need to know:

  • Our leaders are basically old-style chiefs, and chiefs are patriarchs who expect a personal – as opposed to institutional – gratitude for ending corruption, delivering the groceries and development, even if it was ages ago, like Mugabe.

  • They exact a “gratitude premium” that includes immunity against criticism à la Magufuli.

At about this time last year, Tanzania’s President John Magufuli was about to be THE big thing.

Very quickly Africa, and the world, could not have enough of him. #WhatWouldMagufuliDo became one of the biggest trending African hashtags on Twitter.

It was as if he had dropped from Mars. Here was a president who actually showed up to work. He was riding a bicycle to help with cleaning the filthy parts of Dar es Salaam.

He was hounding thieving and work-dodging officials and there was no expense he saw that he did not cut, few holidays he did not want to axe. There were fears that he was going after Christmas, but he stopped short. He only scrapped State-funded Christmas cards.

He turned his back on useless travel to African Union talking shops and has allowed himself very few trips. One to Rwanda by road, the other to Uganda. He flew there.

Despite a lapse in judgement in a moment of nepotism, Magufuli remains a breath of fresh air in a continent lorded over by bandits who pass off as presidents.

Tanzania will probably still do very well for itself under Magufuli – but there will be a price to pay.

It has been surprising that for a man who seems quite accomplished, he should be so thin-skinned.

Several Tanzanians have been convicted for criticising the president on the web. Recently, five people were charged under the new cybercrime law for comments made on WhatsApp and other social media platforms. In June, Issac Abakuki was sentenced to three years in prison and a $3,190 fine for insulting president Magufuli on Facebook. And the whip is still out, and the police are doing their thing.

TELL US

What does Magufuli tell us? It is something bigger than him or Tanzania.

In the past 25 or so years in Africa, hardly any country that was not previously half-democratic, or a quarter-democratic, has opened up politically and economically and continued progressively on a path of freedom without suffering a bout of hesitation, stalling, or going into reversal altogether.

As in Ethiopia or Uganda, they have seen dramatic economic recovery, grown richer, then faltered and returned to the whip and chains. The only two exceptions are perhaps Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki’s South Africa, and Mwai Kibaki’s Kenya.

It could be argued that Magufuli, having won power by the smallest margin of any presidential candidate of the dominant ruling CCM, feels insecure, and thus a need to pushback lest the “enemy” makes further inroads into his corner. But Ethiopia, or even Denis Sassou-Nguesso in the Republic of Congo, are under no such pressure, yet they rule with hammer and tongs.

Some clever men and women also argue that it is the classic “authoritarian bargain”, where there is a settlement in which the government can be allowed to be repressive as long as it brings stability and some prosperity. It is the political equivalent of “no free lunch”.

However, if that were the case, then “Uncle” Robert Mugabe, who took away all the good things Zimbabwe had and wrecked them and is giving the country only pain, would be Africa’s greatest democrat. But we all know he is not.

FATALIST VIEW

There is a fatalist view that optimists will not like. It argues that in Africa, countries that spent decades as dictatorships can never fully democratise. In the end, they always become like a snake trying to swallow its tail – even when it succeeds, it still fails. We have to reject this.

So we go back to the “authoritarian bargain”. Despite the holes in the theory, there is something there.

Our leaders are basically old-style chiefs, and chiefs are patriarchs who expect a personal – as opposed to institutional – gratitude for ending corruption, delivering the groceries and development, even if it was ages ago, like Mugabe.

They exact a “gratitude premium” that includes immunity against criticism à la Magufuli.

For others, it is the possibility to rule into perpetuity as president for life. The fellow is probably saying to himself: “I am generally honest, I am not enriching myself with taxpayer money. I am cleaning up corruption, building hospitals, roads, and luring international investors. What is in it for me if not a little protection from insults by drunkards at the pub and some low life clowns on Twitter and Facebook?”

Whatever the case, it seems the age of the lily-livered developmental autocrat is once again upon us.

 

Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher, Africapedia.com and Roguechiefs.com.

Twitter: @cobbo3