From all sides, Africa's rise has slowed

When Tony Blair called Africa "a scar on the conscience of the world", many analysts rushed to criticise his remarks. 

Blair and other afro-pessimists were countered with the more optimistic narrative of Africa Rising and African Renaissance. 

When the term was coined initially in 2000, it described the rapid economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and the belief that the growth trajectory would be sustained.

The Financial Times of October 27, 2015, described Africa Rising as a "narrative that improved governance means the continent is almost predestined to enjoy a long period of mid-to-high single-digit economic growth, rising incomes and an emerging middle class."

Other descriptions, for example in The Guardian of November 7 2014, included democratisation of African states, greater availability of mobile phones and the Internet, an increase in African consumer spending and growth in entrepreneurship as the engines for this rising.

The term "Africa Rising" today means different things to different people. It therefore begs the question: Is the narrative faltering?

The "Africa Rising" narrative has been largely sustained by foreign pundits. Vijay Mahajan’s book, Africa Rising: How 900 Million African Consumers Offer More Than You Think, spent more time highlighting the opportunities than what it would take Africans to sustain their consumption. 

Within Africa, however, the term was sparingly used. Although five of the 13 fastest-growing economies are in Africa, there is increasing concern that the narrative isn’t as rosy as this single point of data from Business Insider suggests. 

Three of the five fastest-growing African countries have unpredictable political futures.

Tanzania, which has been among the star performers, has a new President whose ideology, described as socialist by critics, may lead the country into economic stagnation of the past. 

President Magufuli, who many Tanzanians belief has Nyerere-like qualities, has so far shown himself, through word and deed, to be an astute student of Nyerere.    

This week, Magufuli revealed that some government officials earned as much as TSh40 million ($18,000) per a month while others in the lower cadres earned a paltry TSh300,000 or $140. 

The President said this was shameful for a poor country like Tanzania, adding that his government “will not tolerate this situation,” and urging officials who disagreed with the new upper threshold salary to start looking for other jobs.

While concluding his remarks, he said “a small number of people in this country live as the angels in heaven, while the majority languishes, like they’re in hell.” The directives would be implemented in the next financial year.

While these statements resonate well with the majority of the people, it remains to be seen what impact salary caps will have on the economy. Investors could hold back to see how far the President will take this ideology.  

Is the president right or wrong? What is clear is that in terms of operating style, these presidential pronouncements amount to a dangerous populism that might result in uncertainty. 

On the flip side, this is perhaps the style of leadership we need to deal with endemic corruption in Africa in order for the continent to begin to rise. 

Whatever position you may have on Magufuli, Tanzania will be a great case study of leadership and capacity development especially in the management of institutions.

In South Africa, as the economy flounders, the Gupta family enjoys exclusive power that rivals the country’s presidency.

Many countries are extending presidential term limits in complete disregard to constitutional term limits, and in the process, undermining democratic expansion. Many governments have virtually no credible opposition.

As unemployment skyrockets, there is no definitive plan on how to deal with the bulging youth population. Diseases that were thought to have been eliminated are making a comeback and causing havoc.

A new World Bank report shows that poverty levels in Africa may be higher than current estimates suggest.

While there has been no systematic increase in inequality, the report hastens to note that challenges remain substantial: more people are poor today than in 1990, two in five adults are still illiterate, and violence is on the rise. 

Can Africa rise if the continent is in a permanent mode of political paralysis? Africans must own the "Africa Rising" narrative, identify the problems that stand in the way of progress and deal with them more effectively than in the past. 

Tribalism, which remains a key challenge to identifying good leaders and managers, must be dealt with head-on and a workable consensus developed to avoid internal conflict every time there is an election.

Mahatma Gandhi once said, “Our ability to reach unity in diversity will be the beauty and the test of our civilisation”.

The writer is an associate professor at University of Nairobi’s School of Business. Twitter: @bantigito