Does Nasa have the resources to sustain a resistance campaign over a 4-year period?

Nasa co-principal Musalia Mudavadi and other Opposition coalition leaders during a press conference at Okoa Kenya offices in Nairobi on October 27, 2017. They said the repeat election is a scam. PHOTO | ANTHONY OMUYA | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Jubilee has large majorities in the Legislature, which means Nasa can only have its say and government will always have its way.
  • Civil disobedience points to a situation in which Nasa will mobilise against Jubilee-led legislation, Executive fiat, Cabinet and Public Service appointments, use of the Service and wastage in government.
  • Nasa spent far too much time haggling over its presidential ticket and left itself no time to organise its nominations or chart its campaign, strategy and execution.

On Wednesday, the National Super Alliance (Nasa) leadership moved swiftly ahead of Thursday’s court-ordered repeat presidential poll to paint the current and incoming Jubilee Party government as murderous and thieving, law-trampling and lacking popular legitimacy.

Boycotting the precedent-setting re-run it brought about by its court action against the August 8 victory of President Kenyatta, Nasa, then, announced the introduction to its set-up of a wing that would lead a civil disobedience campaign or a national resistance movement.

By portraying the incoming government as lacking legitimacy, Nasa sought to delegitimise President Kenyatta’s claim to power or mandate to govern courtesy of a disputed election while ushering its base into an unfamiliar chapter in the struggle for power.

This phase requires that the people disobey or refuse to do what the government demands of, or commands, them. Here the people organise to defeat the government’s agenda and promote their own mostly by non-violent means or via democratic processes of agitation.

GUERILLA WAR

There is, of course, a different kind of resistance movement. When Mr Yoweri Museveni lost the 1980 presidential election, he cried foul and launched the National Resistance Movement to wage a guerrilla war against Kampala. This culminated in his shooting his way to power in 1986.

It is evident on which mast Nasa has nailed its colours. But Jubilee Party politicians are already comparing opposition kingpin Raila Odinga and Nasa to Ugandan fugitive Joseph Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army. The joke may be cold comfort for the President.

This is his final term in which he should be working on his legacy by delivering on his promises, but the election helped post debits in his credibility and legitimacy columns. He won the election but, while parts of Kenya voted for him, others boycotted the poll altogether.

True, Mr Odinga’s name was on the ballot, but the man who was the President’s leading challenger withdrew from the election on October 10 alleging it was deliberately weighted against him by a biased polls umpire working in cahoots with the government.

LEGISLATURE

Granted Jubilee has large majorities in the Legislature, which means Nasa can only have its say and government will always have its way.

But Kenya needs to be united behind the President for him to steady the ship of state and for meaningful development to occur. An important component of Nasa’s campaign of civil disobedience will be a people’s parliament.

That means empowering the public to decide and influence debate on the burning issues of the day. That means setting the public street against parliamentary process.

Civil disobedience points to a situation in which Nasa will organise and mobilise against Jubilee-led legislation, Executive fiat, Cabinet and Public Service appointments, use of the Service and wastage in government. Obviously, Nasa will have to choose carefully the fights to fight. In a word, to succeed Nasa will organise, mobilise and educate Kenyans against injustice; organise events, protests and actions against government agenda or for Nasa’s alternative ideas and projects; and publish, communicate and disseminate Nasa platforms widely.

RESISTANCE

Is Nasa resourced to sustain a country-wide civil disobedience campaign over a four-year period? This question is important because to be successful the campaign should culminate in success at the ballot box in by-elections and the next General Election. Nasa’s resistance task is cut out. The same goes for the President. He may assign Mr Ruto the onus of checking and fighting the resistance while he builds his legacy.

That should excite the DP because Nasa’s campaign will aim to make Jubilee unpopular while slowing down its agenda with 2022 in mind.

That suggests Nasa’s campaign of civil disobedience will both generate and demand new ideas and leadership. Kenya’s opposition needs new ideas and leaders. As I say, Nasa lost on August 8 because it went in to bag the presidency and not win the General Election.

NASA

Nasa, unlike Jubilee, was not a single entity but five parties, each fielding candidates as the coalition cannibalised itself. Nasa spent far too much time haggling over its presidential ticket and left itself no time to organise its nominations or chart its campaign, strategy and execution.

Nasa’s campaign will be regarded a success if it provides the launch pad for renewal, rethinking and refashioning of the opposition to enable it win up-coming by-elections and the 2022 General Election and form government instead of remaining a protest movement. But, in a fast unravelling arena, the test for Nasa may come sooner.

Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]