To make the numbers add up, Kenyans know just what to do
What you need to know:
If Kenya’s salvation rests on the shoulders of the political leadership that we have, and that political leadership is elected by Kenyans, then ours is a self-inflicted disease that we are happy to re-infect ourselves with every five years.
Kenyans have the elixir to clean up the mess, and with it, numbers telling fairy tales that will confound even the fairies.
Scepticism about the veracity of glossy economic growth figures released by the Treasury this week showing that Kenya experienced a generally robust growth last year is justified because the information released does not conform to the reality on the ground.
So, either the statistic that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.3 per cent, well ahead of the 4.9 per cent achieved in 2017 and the World Bank projected figure of 5.7 per cent for the year is a lie or the communication around it is hapless. A basic expectation of any communication is that information being shared should be believable because it connects with reality. If this is not the case, as in this instance, those issuing the messages must explain them fully.
MISERABLE LIFE
In this case, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich and his team from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics did not try hard enough to explain the numbers, lamenting only that the government had not found a formula to redistribute the wealth the figures were speaking of! Could this be simply because there is no such wealth to be redistributed?
The numbers simply have no bearing to the grim reality. There are hardly any jobs being created in Kenya’s formal sector compared to the need and unemployment is one of the, if not the, foremost crisis although one hardly gets the impression that this is the case given the amount of attention the issue is getting.
If you have a need for a million new jobs every year and the economy is creating barely 350,000, primarily in the informal sector, then that economy is a shambles.
What the ordinary Kenyan will tell you is that if she is a subsistence farmer in Trans Nzoia or Uasin Gishu counties, hers is a miserable life. Maize farming is now a most unprofitable undertaking, thanks to the twin vagaries of climate change and poor prices. Milk farming is becoming almost the preserve of better off farmers because of the expensive husbandry required with livestock.
The small scale farmer anywhere in the republic cannot dare to dream of emancipating out of poverty because of an array of factors – unpredictable rains, poor production methods, expensive inputs, uncompetitive pricing, poor marketing, etc. The government lacks the discipline to implement policies that will improve the lives of its farmers. County governments have not done any better, making hollow promises about initiatives that have come to naught — from billion dollar investments in Homa Bay, to avocado industries in Kisii, to free/subsidised fertiliser in Trans Nzoia.
SELF-INFLICTED
Kenyans know 2018 as the year that Nakumatt, the “elephant retailer” died, burying thousands of jobs and shaking banks that had lent it money and the suppliers that had given it supplies on credit. Its smaller competitor, Uchumi, has been tottering very close to the grave, too, Yet, we are told that this sector grew by 6.3 per cent! What drove this?
Construction, we hear, grew by 6.6 per cent yet those in the industry know mostly the pain of not being paid by government. Cement suppliers are complaining of reduced consumption. So where is this robust growth?
Corporates in many sectors shrunk their operations and many other smaller companies shut down altogether. Ask managers at virtually any institution and they will tell you the same story — declining revenues as a result of market slumps. Their responses have been to cut costs — read reduce staff — defer investment decisions and generally shift into survival mode. The number of profit warnings lament the misery in Kenya’s corporate space. And yet, we are told, the economy grew even beyond the 6.0 per cent growth the World Bank in 2018 projected for Kenya in 2020!
But Kenyans are desperate to see and experience these numbers. If only policies could be implemented with the rigid discipline that should attend management of public affairs. If only politics could be deflated in between election dates to allow Kenyans to engage in what comes naturally to them — doing business! If only the gatekeepers stole less and invested most public resources for the benefit of the majority! If only, if only.
And yet, as I always say, if Kenya’s salvation rests on the shoulders of the political leadership that we have, and that political leadership is elected by Kenyans, then ours is a self-inflicted disease that we are happy to re-infect ourselves with every five years. Kenyans have the elixir to clean up the mess, and with it, numbers telling fairy tales that will confound even the fairies.
Mr Mshindi is the former editor-in-chief of the Nation Media Group and is now consulting. [email protected], @tmshindi
