Why Tuesday’s election is hotly contested affair in Kenya history

A year ago today, the high-command of the then Jubilee coalition criss-crossed the country pronouncing they had wrapped up the 2017 elections and hence had trained their sights on the 2022 polls, when President Uhuru Kenyatta would constitutionally leave office and hand over to his deputy William Ruto.

For a good measure, the team boasted it was winning the 2017 elections by more than 70 per cent, up from the 50-plus one in 2013.

UNITY
At one point, DP Ruto told a gathering of church leaders in Nyang’ori in Vihiga County that they were forming Jubilee Party, not to contest an election, but to unite Kenyans.

The Coalition had brought together United Republic Party (URP) under Mr Ruto and The National Alliance (TNA) under Mr Kenyatta.

Winning an election was not in doubt, that was a done deal.

CORD

And all indications were that it would be a shoo-in for Jubilee.

The main Opposition then, the Coalition for Democracy (Cord) was walking topsy-turvy on the brink of disintegration.

High pitch rivalry in the opposition camp threatened to tear it apart and was playing into the hands of Jubilee.

The bravado and the self-assuredness of the Jubilee coalition was not lost on observers.

OPINION POLLS
However, today, a year later, the tide has changed and the ruling coalition that was once so contented has to fight tooth and nail to get a second term.

As they say, a day in politics is long a time.

Opinion polls have consistently reported a close contest between the main two contending presidential aspirants – Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Party and Raila Odinga of the National Super Alliance.

In the latest by Infotrak and Ipsos, the leading candidates are predicting a dead-heat finish with minimal percentage difference.

TURNOUT

Each of the camps has nearly 19 counties under wraps, leaving just about nine for contestation.

By the look of things, the outcomes of the elections will be determined by voter turnout.

What has made the elections so tight?

A number of factors came into play. First was the politics.

NASA

For most of last year, the opposition was in bad shape but its fortunes changed in the dying months of the year when heavyweights like Musalia Mudavadi and Isaac Ruto started gravitating towards the Cord honchos – Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetang'ula - with the realisation that their future depended on forming a united and formidable force to challenge the establishment.

This gave birth to the National Super Alliance, which was launched in early 2017.

Even then, the sails were against the wind. Internal rivalry among the leaders and deep seated suspicion provided text for implosion.

THREAT

But the opposition leaders weathered the storm and went ahead to agree among themselves about a common front and with clearly spelt-out agenda and framework for engagement.

Eventually, the principals named Mr Odinga as its flagbearer in April and that changed the course of events.

Since, it has been a dash to the finish line. Signs that things would be thick started to emerge early in the year during voter registration.

With the possibility of a united opposition, Jubilee realised the threat and the remedy was to get numbers.

VOTER ENLISTING

Both the ruling coalition and the opposition chiefs went out to vigorously campaign for high voter registration to secure numbers to win the elections.

Soon thereafter, the country was divided into zones based on ethnic orientation.

And this remains the bane of our politics.

The voter registration was itself telling. Statistics by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission indicate that a total of 19,611,423 voters were registered, comprising 46.6 per cent females and 53.4 per cent males.

This was remarkable rise from the 14,353,532 in 2013.

NOMINATIONS
Another sign this was going to be a hot contest was during the party nominations, which recorded high voter turnout and where big names were felled at various levels – MPs, senators or governors.

At the end of the nominations, there were 14,552 candidates cleared, the highest ever.

But it is the journey after the presidential nominations that has been stiff.

Indicators like the number of rallies and places visited demonstrate the heat of the race.

According to a report compiled by the Nation, in July alone, the two candidates each did more than 20 rallies – Kenyatta (25) and Odinga (23).

OBSERVERS

These exclude other public engagements they had.

The campaigns were vicious with each camp shadowing each other at every turn.

The so-called swing counties like Kisii, Nyamira, Narok and Kajiado became permanent destinations for the contenders; each trying to erase the other’s footprint.

Other indicators showing this is a competitive poll is the number of foreign and independent observers and a battery of international journalists in town estimated at over 5,000.

CONTEST

And this excludes the list of local observers, about 30,000.

Besides, the international observers are being led by highly placed and influential figures, among them John Kerry, former US Secretary of State, who is leading a team of 67 from the Carter Centre, former Ghana’s President John Mahama, leading the Commonwealth team and former South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki heading the African Union team.

So, when history is finally written, 2017 election will arguably go down as one of the most competitive and fiercely fought contest.

PRESIDENCY

President Kenyatta has to fight to retain power to avoid the distinction of being a one-term president.

Not only that, he would have served only for four-and-half years and left the office at the prime age of 55 when he would ordinarily be an active political player.

Mr Odinga, the self-styled biblical Joshua leading his followers to Canaan, is fighting to ascend to the presidency that has eluded him three times in the past.

LAST CHANCE

This is his last chance and best bet.

As he graphically puts it in his traditional figurative language: it is the last bullet. Time is running out for him.

Currently aged 72, he may not have a chance in 2022, when he’ll be 77, to contest.

He will certainly be tired to mount any formidable campaign and his supporters would be fatigued having stood by him for two decades without success.

The end for this hotly contested election is nigh and as the candidates make their last pitch this weekend at separate venues in Nairobi, voters have the unenviable task of determining the destiny of the nation by making informed and wise choices at the ballot.