ANC forum: Is it the end of the Jacob Zuma era?

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party leader Cyril Ramaphosa is heading to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland this week with a message that his country is open to business and is fighting corruption.

Ramaphosa said those were his two key messages, set against a much better picture of political stability.

But, almost as if to undermine his new boss, South African President and former ANC leader Jacob Zuma, announced he would challenge a court ruling last month that he was too conflicted by “state capture” to appoint a new head of the National Prosecuting Authority.

State capture is the acknowledged — even by Zuma, who has appointed a commission of inquiry into it, as ordered by the courts — system of corruption, patronage and influence-peddling which has bedevilled the Zuma administration and led to losses of billions of dollars, mostly in state-owned enterprises.

SECLUSION

That ruling left the appointment of the head of the country’s prosecuting authority to Ramaphosa in his capacity as South Africa’s deputy president.

Ramaphosa made his pre-Davos comments ahead a crucial ANC “lekgotla” – a Sotho and Tswana word for a village assembly or an assembly of leaders – taking place this weekend.

Such retreats have been used by ANC as a traditionally-framed context within which to discuss matters of high importance.

They are held in seclusion to work out positions on difficult matters.

It was considered highly probable by senior ANC figures ahead of the “lekgotla” that Zuma’s obdurate refusal to bend to the will of the courts and party might sooner than later see him removed from the presidency.

This was considered especially so as his refusal to accept the court finding on how conflicted he was with respect to the NPA appointment that the view from abroad, and particularly Davos, would likely be that Zuma still clings to power and is doing all he can to impede Ramaphosa and his clean-up drive.

CLINGS TO POWER

The Zuma move has dramatically increased tension within ANC caused by having twin centres of power.

Making matters trickier for Ramaphosa in “telling the good story” of what has happened, not only with his ANC election win last month but what is also now to come in terms of political stability and economic recovery and growth, is that the national power-producer, Eskom, is almost bankrupt.

Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba said on Friday that there was a window of only three to four days in which to solve the problem.

If not, and Eskom — one of the key state-owned enterprises worst-hit by state capture’s effect — failed, it could lead to the collapse of the country’s economy.

He added that, unlike South African  Airways, another state-owned enterprise recently bailed out yet again , the government was in no position to do the same for Eskom.

Instead, efforts were being made to prevail upon entities such as the Development Bank of Southern Africa and private firms which lent Eskom money, not to call in their debts.

ROSIER PICTURE

None of that story is likely to go down well in Davos while Ramaphosa attempts to paint a much rosier picture of an essentially stable — if not rapidly growing — economy that is on an recovery path.

Counting in Ramaphosa’s favour are indications that, under his clear and decisive leadership, there have been developments in bringing to book those behind state capture.

The Asset Forfeiture Unit, a special enforcement arm of the security cluster of government, obtained a preservation order against international consultants McKinsey and Trillian, the latter a corporation with ties to the Gupta family considered to be at the heart of state capture, for an amount of $133 million based on illegal transactions these entities had with Eskom.

The transactions and other questionable deals have combined to contribute to Eskom’s liquidity problems through misspending of funds. McKinsey said it had already set aside money received to be repaid, though it denied any wrongdoing.

Ramaphosa indirectly praised the effective seizure of ill-gotten assets, saying there was at last some long-overdue movement on state capture, but that more action was needed urgently. He urged NPA to move without fear or favour where state capture was involved.

THREATEN ECONOMY

Those comments were a direct reference to Zuma, who still retains the power to determine the terms of reference for the pending state capture inquiry he was made to order.

On Thursday, the NPA said three of 17 state capture-related cases were at an advanced stage.

It was the first public indication that investigators had done anything about a problem which is so advanced that its knock-on impacts threaten the country’s economy.

Ramaphosa emphasised the need to show Davos that South Africa was getting to the bottom of state capture, a move that would attract investors.

Thursday and Friday’s developments meant not only was the ANC “bush conference” likely to be seized by issues of state capture and related matters, but would be focused on Zuma and his continuation as head of state.

“Don’t be surprised to hear on Monday that Jacob is being recalled,” said an ANC insider ahead of the “lekgotla”.

Exactly how Ramaphosa could possibly spin latest developments in Davos without Zuma’s immediately removal from office was unclear to some of those going to the ANC gathering and to seasoned observers and diplomats.