Brace yourself for a tough ride with Uhuru and Raila not in mood for talks

My last line of my last column of 2017 asked whether President Kenyatta would choose to dialogue or tough it out with the opposition National Super Alliance (Nasa) in 2018.

I so posed because achievement of his four-point legacy spelt out on December 12 is dependent on how the President balances his deals and duels with Nasa with steering a listing ship of state.

In his New Year address, the President neither mentioned Nasa nor suggested that his political rivals were making post-election demands and bringing into question his re-election.

The President’s silence on Nasa’s demand for electoral justice, threat to swear in a parallel government and civil disobedience campaign was not golden, but it thundered in the ears of disbelieving Nasa chiefs and supporters and of approving governing Jubilee Party backers.

In silence, the President sided with Jubilee hawks who say he must not be stampeded or sleep-walked into dialogue with Nasa’s captains who have loudly refused to recognise him as Kenya’s elected Head of State.

SILENCE

Second, the silence restated his position that the 2017 General Election cycle, easily Kenya’s longest complete with two presidential elections, ended with his declaration as winner of the court-ordered repeat presidential poll of October 26 and swearing-in on November 28.

The President was saying he long ago moved on to the agenda of nation-building which is what he expects of Nasa. It is why he dwelt at length, as he did in his 2017 State of the Nation address, on the promises his government has kept or delivered on before revisiting his December 12 plan.

Third, lack of comment cannot mean that the President and the Jubilee high command have not mapped out strategies for dealing individually with Nasa’s campaign of civil disobedience, formation of a parallel government and demand for a fresh presidential poll.

ALLIANCE

Silence about an alliance that calls his presidency illegitimate masked the President’s determination to force Nasa to invest its resources in exhausting yet endless skirmishes and only give in to dialogue at a time of his choosing and on his terms, if ever.

The President did not show his hand to keep Nasa guessing, but it is a given the government has dug in its feet for a multi-pronged war of attrition. A herald of this was a widely circulated news report last month that Jubilee plans to splinter Nasa before March.

Divide-and-rule and divide-and-rent are age-old strategies of governing parties in the political marketplace. President Kenyatta and Deputy William Ruto have State largesse which is the reigning currency of political transaction in a market dominated and administered by Jubilee.

Indeed, Mr Raila Odinga, Kenya’s most battle-hardened political warhorse, claimed in November that he had been offered a staggering Sh25 billion by Jubilee apparatchiks to retire from politics which he declined. Jubilee stalwarts dismissed the claim as rent-seeking.

QUIT NASA

On December 28, Mr Musalia Mudavadi told Nasa supporters that Jubilee had sent emissaries to persuade him to quit Nasa in exchange for State largesse, but they had under-estimated his resolve to fight for electoral reform through Nasa and the fact that he is made of sterner stuff.

Suddenly, Water Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa questioned Mr Mudavadi’s alleged claim to Luhya, let alone national, leadership. And, Senate Speaker Ken Lusaka’s uncharacteristic boast to being the senior-most Luhya politician the previous week, assumed new and greater significance.

Branded as a safe pair of hands for his failed 2013 presidential run, Mr Mudavadi eschews political skirmishing and violence, themselves influential currencies of the political marketplace. But he is here being forced into a sterile so-called Luhya fight to splinter Nasa or pin it down.

FIGHTING

Notice that as soon as Mr Kalonzo Musyoka returned from Germany where he had been attending to his ailing wife just before the end of December, Jubilee provocateur Moses Kuria posited that now Nasa principals would soon be fighting over Mr Odinga’s seat.

That sign-posted Jubilee’s desperation to splinter Nasa but it is even more anxious to deny it the support of Kenyans. Nasa is desperate to keep its base solidly behind it as an insurance policy for staying in the fight and focused. However, the pressure is on Nasa. It has to fight government without breaking the law; stay disciplined, resourceful and committed for the long haul; and persuade election-wearied populace to remain steadfast and not to tire or waver. The coming war of attrition will test the patience of Kenyans to the hilt.

 Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]