Burgeoning population calls for return to family planning path

Jobseekers queue on Wabera Street, Nairobi, as they wait to be interviewed by The Sarova Stanley on May 26, 2018. PHOTO | KANYIRI WAHITO | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • The United Nations projects that in 30 years there would be 100 million of us and Kenya will be the 20th most-populous country.

  • Millions of Kenyans cannot find gainful employment as thousands of youth constantly look for inexistent remunerative work.

  • Finite resources, such as arable land and clean water, are rapidly diminishing.

Kenya’s post-Independence economic experience has been mostly disappointing. The economy has grown sluggishly. Real income rose at a slow $11.7 (Sh1,170) a year as the economy stagnated or contracted in the past eight years with consecutive growth, of more than two years, only in 2002-2006.

The economy has manifested wild year-to-year swings — like the 4.7 per cent decline in 1970 followed by a 22.2 per cent growth!

But like marching soldiers our population has ballooned. It has skyrocketed from 8.9 million in 1963 to 50 million — a factor of 5.5 — while incomes only rose by a factor of 2.0.

The United Nations projects that in 30 years there would be 100 million of us and Kenya will be the 20th most-populous country.

UNEMPLOYMENT

Millions of Kenyans cannot find gainful employment as thousands of youth constantly look for inexistent remunerative work in a largely informal economy where not only can’t job creation keep pace with population growth but there is no economic diversification.

Finite resources, such as arable land and clean water, are rapidly diminishing. The capacity of institutions to provide basic social services is overstretched.

It is imperative that we proactively pursue a two-pronged integrated strategy of guided economic growth and population management: A development policy that would leverage the burgeoning working-age population for higher productivity and examine our choices for family sizes.

An alternative narrative that sees potential in our growing population exists, nonetheless.

DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

In recent months, African leaders and stakeholders, including the African Union, have been trumpeting the continent’s imminent economic take-off that is predicated on the coming demographic dividend.

According to them, Africa is experiencing a demographic transition occasioned by a simultaneous decline in mortality and fertility rates.

While the share of available labour force, or the working-age population, for other regions is in decline, Africa will experience a steady rise for several decades.

By one account, this share will rise from 54 per cent in 2010 to 64 per cent in 2090 or 12.6 per cent in 2010 to more than 41 per cent by 2100.

STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITY

They see this as a strategic, 30-year opportunity for Africa to finally achieve poverty reduction, economic growth and sustainable development — like South Asia. Economic theory suggests that growth in working-age population often leads to a reduction in dependency ratios and increase in output.

Countries can also realise a steady rise in income, savings and investment.

The World Bank estimates that this demographic dividend could account for as much as 15 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth and move 60 million people out of poverty.

But to harness this, upfront investment in healthcare, education and skills development is needed. Right policy measures and incentives must be provided to support labour-intensive growth.

HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH

Rather than simply pursuing high economic growth, proper focus should be on high and sustainable growth and improvements in the quality of government institutions and human capital accumulation through technology, innovation and entrepreneurship.

Ongoing development initiatives such as the ‘Big Four’ agenda and the standard gauge railway (SGR) must boost our productivity and further enhance our competitive edge. This is the first strategy.

Kenya is widely listed among the first African countries to recognise the effects of rapid population growth on social and economic development.

When total fertility rate was high and rising, topping the world ranks in 1966 with 8.13 births per woman, it increased availability of family planning services in hospitals and health centres with its first clinic the Family Planning Association of Kenya.

FAMILY PLANNING

Soon after ascending to power, President Daniel arap Moi prioritised family planning, becoming a leading advocate through his “panga uzazi” (plan your family) clarion call.

The Washington Post of March 8, 1986 reported that the slowing down population growth was, then, Kenya’s most crucial challenge. It further said that Moi had set a target of 4.7 children per family by 2000.

In Moi’s 24-year rule, fertility rates dropped by 34 per cent. Kenyan women were having just five children and the annual population growth slowed from 3.8 per cent to 2.7 per cent. And there has been little change 15 years since he left. Last year, the population increased by 2.5 per cent or 1,240,000 new babies a year — an increase.

Clearly, it is imperative to recognise our inherent limitations to adequately support further population growth and return to championing smaller families.

Mr Chesoli is a New York-based development economist and global policy expert. [email protected].