Covid-19 outbreak is more than a pandemic; it’s a game changer

A security officer wearing a protective face mask poses for a picture at the entrance of the Infectious Disease Unit of Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi, Kenya, on March 15, 2020. PHOTO | YASUYOSHI CHIBA | AFP

What you need to know:

  • International tourism is dead, as is domestic tourism.
  • The Mombasa tea auction is suspended; there are no ships to transport the cargo anyway.
  • Schools are closed and talk of fee waivers and reductions for the next term is prevalent.

What is besieging Kenya and much of the world is more than a pandemic: It is the threat of World War 3. If one strips out the physical aspect of a war with weapons, much of what is going on has all the features of a war.

Add the dimension of Covid-19 and we have a global war.

We are literally glued to and obsessed with the hour-by-hour updates of the relentless march of this virus and how it impacts us. But we must step back from it and take stock of the whole scenario holistically and rationally.

It is tempting and, indeed, understandable to become over reactive and even hysterical about it.

HUMAN TRAFFIC
We need to understand the length and breadth and nature of the beast in order to plot a comeback and a way forward after the ravages that are gathering momentum. This is, after all, a phenomenon we have never experienced before.

The core driver of this is the SARS-related virus that has spread like bushfire, particularly where the measures to contain it have been lax. No wonder, New York State has become the more recent epicentre of it, downing to its flights and human traffic.

Containing it is a pre-requisite to anything else. We must also put together a massive ‘Marshall Plan’, akin to the one of Europe after 1945, to revive our badly ravaged country. Covid-19 is the eye of the storm but its devastation will be incalculably massive and widespread.

Kenyans have experienced the fallout after the 1982 coup attempt and even the 2007/2008 post-election ravages and an assortment of inflictions and devastations.

But this could be the monster of them all; the one that literally shakes the very core of our social, economic and even political foundations.

How much and to what extent is difficult to quantify now but the world will be a dramatically different place.

Let me just give you a glimpse of what is happening to just our key foreign exchange earners.

International tourism is dead, as is domestic tourism. On the coast, I witnessed sights I have never ever seen before. Imagine vast Diani beach with three dogs and two humans on it!

DECLINE SHARPLY
Our precious roses are being burnt rather than exported because their destinations are locked down and there are no flights to transport them. Diaspora remittances will decline sharply as Kenyans abroad struggle to eke their way through what is happening in ravaged Europe and the USA.

The Mombasa tea auction is suspended; there are no ships to transport the cargo anyway.

Much of our domestic economic and social activity has been put on hold as many in our workforce are told to stay away. Schools are closed and talk of fee waivers and reductions for the next term is prevalent.

Economic and commercial activity is slowing down and will stutter along. Shortages will become common.

More businesses will close and bankruptcies will be swirling away around us. The high unemployment will skyrocket.

No amount of monetary or fiscal measures will be enough to get the economy out of this hole partly because we do not yet know how deep it is.

TOKENISM

What the President announced the other day has to be followed by a massive and extensive raft of measures, lest it be regarded as tokenism or a mere PR stunt.

Were will the country get the massive amount of finances and resources from, considering its indebtedness and the fact that the world is inundated with demands from this trauma?

Have we thought through what should be the main planks of this massive rescue and stimulus plan?

I deliberately throw in the latter word because this is not just about money: We have to incentivise big and small movers and shakers to take the baton and run with it.

UNEMPLOYMENT

And run we must as time will not be on our side. Each day, more and more people are being made to join that large and swirling sea of unemployment.

The bigger it gets, the more dangerous it becomes and the closer we get dragged to social fluidity and unrest.

However the virus hits us, the counter-measures in place are going to hit this country big time.

And its very foundations will shake and the fallout could be nasty and messy. Please, please let us not get there.

Mr Shaw is an economic and social analyst. [email protected].