Difficult hurdles in Uhuru’s path to leave a legacy come 2022

As he stumbled into the New Year, President Uhuru Kenyatta would have been acutely conscious that he was running out of time in the quest to craft a legacy.

The President embarked on his second and final term after the contentious 2017 elections crafting an agenda built on three main pillars designed to secure a place in history.

One was the Big 4 development agenda focusing on four main areas: food security, expanded affordable housing, universal health insurance and enhanced role of manufacturing as an engine of economic growth.

Another was renewed commitment in the fight against corruption, hoping that he would be the one to finally deliver a decisive blow against a scourge that has bedevilled Kenya for generations, defied successive governments and contributed heavily to economic decay and insecurity.

The final pillar was the ‘handshake’; the truce with long-time rival and veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga that was supposed to settle once and for all the culture of violent elections, ethnic political contests and the historical injustices that have created an unequal society riven with dangerous economic divides.

Two years later and with less than three to go in his final term, little has been achieved on the legacy projects.

DISILLUSIONED PUBLIC

The President finds himself prematurely reduced to a lame duck, with the Jubilee Party that would be critical to driving his agenda deeply divided down the middle.

A powerful faction loyal to Deputy President William Ruto is in open defiance, and boasting the numbers to shoot down his manoeuvres in both Houses of Parliament and the moribund party organs.

The Big 4 Agenda is stymied by lack of funding as the economy crumbles under the weight of massive borrowing used on ambitious infrastructural projects.

Economic slowdown and the unemployment crisis has spawned an angry and disillusioned populace that is turning the finger of blame on President Kenyatta’s flawed policies, costing him support even in his Mt Kenya fortress.

Inability to sell the ‘handshake’ within Jubilee’s core base is also costing President Kenyatta dearly.

The Building Bridges Initiative report was received with suspicion or open hostility in the party strongholds.

The Rift Valley bastions loyal to Dr Ruto, from the outset, were never comfortable with a move they suspected aimed at building political links with Mr Odinga at the DP’s expense, especially in regard to the 2022 presidential succession.

RUTO'S AMBITION

The populous Mt Kenya strongholds have also not welcomed BBI.

After years of being programmed to virulent anti-Raila propaganda on vernacular radio stations connected to the Kenyatta family, it has been difficult to suddenly shift and accept an accommodation with the opposition chief.

The presumed Jubilee succession pact by which Mr Kenyatta would back Dr Ruto in 2022 has also come into play, alongside feelings that the former, and by extension his community, owes the latter much.

Now President Kenyatta has been looking on helplessly as Dr Ruto’s well-oiled campaign machine moved adroitly to capture the majority of Mt Kenya MPs, who are positioning themselves for a change of regime.

Although there is no reliable poll yet, chances are that Mr Kenyatta has largely lost most of the adoring Mt Kenya masses who came out twice to propel him to electoral victory, but are now disillusioned.

In such a situation the BBI report will be a difficult sell, as will be any other initiative, such as the proposed Conflict of Interest law, that comes up against Dr Ruto’s interests.

2022 SUCCESSOR

The same broad Ruto faction resisting any deal with Mr Odinga has also come out quite openly against President Kenyatta’s anti-graft campaign, and has been quick to embrace all senior figures caught up in the crackdown.

Legacy projects aside, 2022 will be critical for the President’s succession strategy.

If not backing Dr Ruto, anything he tries involving Mr Odinga — as well as other figures such as opposition alliance co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi — will run into headwinds within Jubilee.

It will probably accelerate the likelihood of a ruling party implosion and final split with Dr Ruto.

With no obvious successor in sight on the Mt Kenya front, the President may be tempted to try and hold on ‘director’ of community political interests even as he relinquishes the presidency.

Chances are that he might find his options severely limited in a community that has little time for political leaders who do not wield political power.

Figures such as Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru have been advising the community to wait for President Kenyatta’s signal on both succession and the region’s political direction, but there is doubt he will be able to dictate things.

FAILED ENDORSEMENTS

A lesson might come from the failure of his predecessor, President Mwai Kibaki, to influence the 2013 elections as he left office.

Powerful figures in State House, presumably with his blessings, tried to block the Uhuru-Ruto pair on account of the ICC indictments, propping up Mr Mudavadi to no avail.

President Kibaki, under family pressure, even tried, and failed, to block the election of his presumed consort, Ms Mary Wambui, as his successor in Othaya Constituency.

It might also be counter-productive by feeding into the Ruto-camp narrative that the Uhuru-Raila deal was a sinister move aimed at dynastic retention of power at the expense of the self-proclaimed ‘hustler’.

Such fears would put the Ruto forces on high alert, and strengthen their resolve to block or sabotage BBI or any other Kenyatta initiative that disadvantages the DP.

Earlier, in 2002, outgoing President Daniel arap Moi fronted a then greenhorn Uhuru Kenyatta as his preferred successor, but Kenyan’s would have none of it.

PM POST

Mr Moi, once out of power, was also unable stem the rise of William Ruto in succeeding him as unchallenged kingpin of Kalenjin politics.

These are lessons President Kenyatta cannot be blind to, even as some of those gunning for his blessings push the delusion that he will dictate the Kikuyu political direction.

The president might also be aware that his acolytes pushing the narrative that he is not really quitting the scene are doing him no favours.

Trade unions boss Francis Atwoli has for a while pushed the views that President Kenyatta is too young to retire and should stay on in some top leadership capacity.

Mr Atwoli’s sentiments could have been dismissed as personal and not in line with the thinking of the president, who has on several occasions publicly denied harbouring such notions.

However, similar views pushed by an insider in the Kenyatta political machine, former Jubilee Vice Chairman David Murathe, could have caused many to stand up and take notice.

MURATHE BOMBSHELL

Over the last weekend, Mr Murathe declared in a media interview that President Kenyatta was going nowhere, offering the possibility that he could retain executive power courtesy of return of the office of Prime Minister if the BBI recommendation were implemented.

Mr Murathe is often given to flights of fancy, but his words cannot be taken lightly given his central role on the Kenyatta political machine.

He could have been floating trial balloons to gauge the public reaction, but any possibility that an Uhuru premiership is on the table will rise many political antennae.