Domestic problems mount for Ramaphosa

Things domestically are getting very tough for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and his administration.

Beyond much-increased union militancy, which has in the last week seen a strike by workers for Eskom, SA's state-owned power producer, leading to sabotage and costly power outages around the country, there is also a growing militancy around land invasions, which Economic Freedom Fighters leader Julius Malema is calling for, in full populist mode.

Against this backdrop, further instability seems unavoidable as the SA economy continues to weaken with the full effects of the wasteful and useless expenditures of public funds in the Zuma era biting ever-deeper.

The South African currency was buoyed briefly by Ramaphosa’s election in December to lead the ruling African National Congress (ANC), and his subsequent elevation to President with the forced resignation of Zuma in February.

STATE CAPTURE

But it has since fallen back to levels reflecting the lack of local and international investor confidence last seen at the height of the uproar over Zuma’s “state capture” system of patronage, maladministration, corruption and incompetence.

The second quarter Gross Domestic Product number, a staggering -2.2 per cent, reflects the shrinkage in the SA economy as the ripple effects of billions of dollars in diverted public funds hits home.

Almost everyone in the country is feeling not merely the “pinch” as the economy shrinks, but an extreme squeeze on their both their income and their ability to meet rising costs spurred on by exchange rate inflation, hitting people at the fuel pump and across the board as prices rise.

All this is bad news for Ramaphosa’ new administration, now barely four months old, as he struggles to rectify the country’s listing economy and re-instil some investor confidence in the wake of the Zuma era.

For their part, investors have not flocked back into the South African market, taking a more cautious “wait-and-see” approach despite Ramaphosa’s appeal to global business leaders.

RATUNGS AGENCIES

The “Ramaphoria” period which saw a big boost in business confidence locally and international ratings agencies posting more positives outlooks for SA is now long over.

Ramaphosa is still smiling broadly and trying to soothe land and property owners’ fears after his party adopted land expropriation without compensation – against the current constitution’s position on this subject – while trying to woo direct foreign investment.

Part of that drive has begun with what will be several rounds of public participatory hearings in all of the country’s nine provinces on the vexed land issue.

Ramaphosa has been saying all along that expropriation without compensation would be used carefully to avoid creating the impression that SA was engaging in the sort of post-colonial era land-grab that drove the Zimbabwean economy into the ground.

He has been heard, but while the issue remains under debate, and property and land rights are in question, he can more or less forget about foreign investors rushing back into the SA market.

ZUMA-STYLE SYSTEM

Despite all these issues, each of which is troubling in its own right, Ramaphosa's main problem is with his own party.

No less than four out of eight ANC-ruled provinces are in utter disarray as far as the ANC’s organisational structure is concerned: North West Province, Eastern Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.

In each case, there have been court actions, violent street protests and schisms within the ruling party over representation at provincial level.

At the heart of the matter are twin issues: personal ambition for advancement within the ruling party and factionalism driven by those for and those against the Zuma-style system of patronage governance.

There is no doubt that Ramaphosa means what he has said and that he intends to root out corruption, nepotism and incompetence.

He has already gone a long way to do that in some state-owned enterprises, the largest of which have had entirely new boards appointed since his administration got underway.

PERSONAL RIVALRIES

But sorting out his own party’s struggle with and against corruption is another matter since the rivalries now existing within the party – seen by many as a viable “career choice” in terms of getting ahead in the world – have driven apparently unbridgeable divides between those who wish to return to the “good old days” under Zuma and those who want something entirely different.

The contention for personal advancement is behind much of the violence which has seized both KwaZulu-Natal province – SA’s largest by population and home to the Zulu tribe of which Zuma is a member – and its northern neighbour Mpumalanga, home to deputy ANC and national President David Mabuza.

Between these two provinces, well over 250 people have died in recent months in what has been, at least to some extent, the outcome of both political differences and personal rivalries for positions like local government councillors.

Given South Africa’s high unemployment numbers – officially nearly 27 per cent, but unofficially rather higher than that, and as high as 60 per cent for those under 25 who are in the job market – a local councillor’s salary and a prime position for higher things to come have proven to be juicy offerings which have led to scenes of mayhem at branch meetings, provincial party conferences, courts ruling against provincial ANC conference elections, threats, intimidation and dozens of assassinations.

MILITARY OPERATIVES

All four the named provinces are heartland regions for the ANC and having them divided with rival factions at each other’s throats, metaphorically and literally, is laying the groundwork for the ANC to potentially lose its outright majority in next April's national elections and much reduced control over all provinces.

Details in each case vary slightly but in essence it is now apparent that the Zuma faction in the ANC is not going without a fight – and given what's at stake, that fight has already taken on a brutal and violent aspect which is getting worse.

Meanwhile, with deeply compromised police intelligence and State Security services – both in the process of being revamped but both having lost key human resources under Zuma's watch – there has been a rapid increase in extremely violent crimes, including cash-in-transit heists, some of which have involved armoured vehicles being blown to pieces in broad daylight by criminals gangs that include police and military trained operatives.

TOWNSHIP REVOLT

The ousting of Zuma ally Supra Mahumapelo from the premiership of North West province – where there had been a near total civil uprising that abruptly ended one of Ramaphosa’s foreign initiatives to lure back international investors – has seen the Zuma camp suffer yet another defeat.

But that does not mean that the contention has ended.

Rather, as those who have a lot to lose congregate around resentment towards Ramaphosa and his allies within the ruling party – and against white South Africans who see in Ramaphosa some hope for a return to the racially inclusive “rainbow nation” era of Mandela’s time – the counter-force has grown and the violence has increased.

Little reported, even in South Africa, is the fact that there have been at least as many “township service delivery” protests requiring police action as ever there were even at the height of the anti-apartheid township revolt of the late 1980s.

"WILD WEST"

Together these various factors are presenting Ramaphosa with a severe test for his young administration, and with little time to make a serious inroad into the negative consequences of Zuma’s 10-year rule before South Africans are once again asked to choose their government.

All indications are that South Africa, having had a relative peaceful time between 1994 and 2007, is again becoming the "Wild West", with little sign of things settling down any time soon – certainly not until after next year's election, and maybe not even then either.