Elephant in the room: Why Raila is rooting for a referendum

Certainly, Kenya is headed for a third referendum, possibly within the next three years. With the strategies of leading presidential contenders pivoting towards a referendum, the post-2022 order becomes hazier.

Since the blissful ‘handshake’ between President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga on March 9, 2018, calls for a plebiscite have become louder and bolder. Mr Odinga is categorical that “a referendum vote before 2022 is unstoppable”.

On October 6, 2018, Deputy President William Ruto tactically backed constitutional reforms through direct democracy.

POLARISING ISSUE

Kenya is not new to referendums designed to hew a new political arrangement. A popular clamour for constitutional change to remove Section 2A of the Constitution that converted Kenya into a one-party state returned the country to a multi-party system, paving the way for the 1992 election.

Despite the opposition’s electoral triumph in 2002, constitutional reform has remained a polarising issue. A proposed new constitution was defeated by 58 per cent of voters during the November 21, 2005 referendum, badly splitting the ruling National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) and setting the stage for the 2007-2008 post-election violence.

The August 4, 2010 constitutional referendum endorsed the new document by 68.6 per cent of voters, but the new law is now the target of review.

PRESIDENTIAL BID

A referendum has become to Raila Odinga what the Holy Grail is to the Church. Before 2013, he backed a pure presidential system as necessary to enforce “reforms.” But on July 7, 2014, in the wake of the abortive Saba Saba “Kenyan Spring”, he launched the Okoa Kenya movement to amend the constitution ahead of the 2017 election. The referendum initiative collapsed, but laid the ground for the fierce power tussles that marred the 2017 elections.

The former Premier is pushing for the referendum close to the 2022 election to serve as a dry run for his fifth presidential bid — or a chance to reshape a post-Jubilee arrangement, if he opts to be a kingmaker.

Despite the spirited push for a parliamentary system, Odinga’s approach to referendums has been pragmatic. His game plan is to create an inclusive post-Uhuru arrangement as a ‘coat-of-many-colours’ comprising of the Big-five — Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin, and Kamba — as well as influential minorities.

CEREMONIAL FIGUREHEAD

ODM wonks are toying with a watered-down president as titular figurehead aided by two vice-presidents, an executive premier and two deputy premiers. This arrangement, however, is poised to run against serious headwinds.

Kenyans are unlikely to readily cede the power to directly elect their chief executive to a parliament that has lost public trust as a non-corruptible representative of the people. Moreover, Kenya’s ethnic constituencies may not accept a ceremonial figurehead.

But the big question remains: Is Raila ready to settle for a weakened presidency? Aged and his health declining, he may accept being a ceremonial president.

BUILDING BRIDGES

Although in the recent past Deputy President Ruto has argued against a referendum, he fully recognises the power of the direct vote in shaping the future of power. His support for the victorious “No” vote in the November 2005 referendum enabled him to ride the ODM wave, eclipse ‘dynasticism’, and to rise to the helm of Kalenjin power in the post-Moi Rift Valley.

Moreover, although the “No” vote lost in the 2010 referendum, Ruto’s leadership of the campaign enabled him to exorcise the Odinga ghost in Kalenjin politics and to rally the community behind him ahead of the 2013 election.

However, the Ruto camp sees eerie parallels between the push for referendum and the “Change the Constitution Movement” to block Moi from automatically succeeding Jomo Kenyatta in the 1970s. The “Building Bridges Committee” is seen as Odinga’s ploy to block Ruto from succeeding Uhuru.

CORRIDORS OF POWER

Therefore, Ruto’s public support for a referendum is merely tactical. Although it may be a game changer, he has remained mute about the end-state of the plebiscite.

With America and other Western capitals reportedly backing constitutional reform, Ruto needed to avoid possible political isolation.

He has aggressively mobilised Jubilee Party MPs to neutralise the politics of the handshake and hope to use the increased executive seats to enhance his power base across the country.

On his part, President Kenyatta — who has presided over the implementation of the 2010 constitution and paid a heavy political cost for it — has kept a magisterial neutrality in the referendum debate.

But in the corridors of power, three positions on his possible role in the post-2022 order are discernible. On the one extreme are his more moderate strategists who are working to strengthen the Jubilee Party as his post-2022 power base to enable him secure his legacy.

TERM LIMITS

On the extreme are pundits who believe that the push for the referendum should go the whole hog and abolish the presidential term limits, thus allowing Kenyatta to seek a third and perhaps a fourth term.

A group of “centrists” is pushing for a hybrid system with a corporate touch: an executive President as Chairman of Kenya Inc. assisted by two deputy presidents; a Prime Minister as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Kenya Inc. nominated by the President but confirmed by a joint house of Parliament (Senate and Lower House) and assisted by two deputy Prime Ministers, one in charge of Public Service affairs and the other of Cabinet and Parliamentary affairs.

Added to these is the more eclectic “punda amechoka” populist crowd backing a referendum as necessary to reduce the tax burden on ordinary Kenyans (Wanjiku). Referendums are here to stay, but we should guard against the referendum becoming an invitation to chaos and anarchy.

Prof Kagwanja, a former government adviser, is the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute.