Good prospects in 2019 though corruption could ruin it for us

The general consensus is that last year was a lot better than the nightmare that was 2017 and that 2019 will continue with that positive momentum.

Reasonable rains helped us to overcome the worst of the 2017 drought. There was little or no electioneering and endless politicking and the ‘Handshake’ helped to bridge the divide.

Kenya is confronted with some major challenges that may not hit the headlines but loom over it like a dark cloud.

INADEQUATE

Around 60 per cent of Kenyans are under 25, of which 40 per cent are 14, and younger. That places a huge burden on the country and its capacity to provide the bare basics of healthcare, education, food and jobs, requiring massive resources. On jobs, or gainful opportunity, the country must provide a million of them every year for the next decade at least.

For example, an economic growth rate of the five and six per cent range is inadequate. We must aim for the nine to 10 per cent as well as a raft of structural changes to make government more efficient and the overall operating environment more favourable.

Another challenge is the huge disparity in wealth, which is one of the greatest in the world. The richest 10 per cent of Kenyans earn 23 times more than the poorest 10 per cent. The bulk of that wealth is concentrated in the cities, with Nairobi accounting for the lion’s share.

Let’s now turn to immediacies. The environment is, certainly, more conducive. Along with greater political harmony and more favourable weather, there are some other positive factors. Internal and external confidence is greater. Foreign and domestic investment is picking up and diaspora inflows have increased significantly. All are good barometers of the improved confidence in the country.

Kenya’s regional hub status continues to strengthen. As well as being a major trade entrepot for eastern Africa, it has become a base for many regional operations. There are some challenges, particularly relating to the cost of overland cargo transport, but, overall, the position is improving.

UNATTRACTIVE

Traditional foreign exchange earners such as coffee, tea, horticulture and tourism, are performing reasonably strongly. Horticulture is undergoing healthy changes as the sector identifies additional export opportunities to add to its traditional exports of green beans and flowers. Tourism arrivals were up 7.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2018 and, more interestingly, arrivals at Moi International Airport, Mombasa, increased by 40 per cent. The latter indicates a pick-up in coast tourism and hopefully, an attempt to improve the coastal tourism.

That said, there are some significant handbrakes on the horizon. While there have been some serious onslaughts on corruption, it is still early days. DCI George Kinoti and DPP Noordin Haji must gain convincing convictions so that the price paid for graft becomes unattractively high.

President Kenyatta and other like-minded people must think hard and fast on how to make this purge definitive and resounding. Pumping skills and resources into the areas of forensics and general investigation, like improving the capacity of the Judiciary, is a must. Ditto for service delivery.

INEFICIENT

The public service is way below par on productivity and service delivery to the extent that one can be forgiven to think that it is more of a self-service operation.

The police service needs a special mention. I watch with cynical amusement as hordes of traffic police liberally wave down PSVs yet a few metres away the walking public are risking their lives using a marked pedestrian crossing many motorists ignore and police fail to enforce.

Two other handbrakes are worth mentioning. One by-product of our bloated and inefficient public service is that it exacerbates our fiscal mess. Too much of the budget goes into paying wages rather than procuring goods and services.

The other twin evil is our debt. Not only is repayment and interest getting to disproportionate levels, but it is also diverting money that could go on goods and services. Borrowing prudently pays dividends, but it is anyone’s guess as to how much of that debt shouldn’t have been taken.

Mr Shaw is a public policy and economic analyst. [email protected]