How do we guard ourselves better against attacks?

In counter-terrorism, there are no coincidences. Every terrorist attack is a meticulously planned event with careful venue or human target selection, intelligence gathering on potential number of victims and security loopholes to exploit

Terrorists typically delve into the best time to strike for maximum impact and do dry runs to prepare for the attack. In many cases, they prepare psychologically for death: Either as suicide bombers or being killed by security forces.

Decoding the attackers’ logic is key to preventing attacks.

As we condole with those who lost their loved ones, we must acknowledge that Kenya has become more experienced in dealing with terrorism.

This is marked by the swift government response that quickly evacuated at least 700 people, centralised information channels, and speedily killed the attackers. Additionally, there was restraint by the public when using social media.

NARRATIVES

These wins come from more awareness on terrorism, additional counter-terrorism experience for Kenyan security forces, international co-operation for intelligence collection, and increased engagement of community members.

Terrorists’ choice of an attack venue is based on several issues such as economic, political, historical or national significance. For example, the World Trade Centre was a great symbol of the American economy thus the 1993 and 2001 attacks.

The 14 Riverside complex was perhaps an ideal attack site because of its proximity to Nairobi’s central business district and numerous diplomatic entities.

There is one main entrance/exit route — although there is also an emergency evacuation route. Presence of heavy human traffic and the hosting of international offices also make it a prime target.

As in all political occurrences, dates are important for terrorist organisations. Why attack now?

First, the Riverside attack occurred on the third anniversary of the highly emotive El Adde attack on the Kenya Defence Forces — a painful reminder that al-Shabaab, despite losing territory in Somalia and evolving into an insurgency, still has the capability to carry out terrorist attacks.

Secondly, it was a day after the acquittal of a Westgate attack suspect while three were put on their defence at the Milimani Law Courts.

Third, during the Christmas festivities security agencies are on high alert due to the large number of people frequenting events which makes many venues soft targets.

SOCIALISATION

In January, however, the assumption is that security will be more lax as normalcy resumes.

How do we guard ourselves better?

Extremist groups have convincing narratives that attract sympathisers, financiers and operatives.

There is a need for strong counter-narratives and awareness campaigns that touch on patriotism, unity and shared values that are incorporated in the curriculum and media for uniform socialisation across Kenya.

Secondly, awareness helps detect attack plans early, effectively deter terrorists and strengthen defence of installations.

The writer is Research Associate at Counter Terrorism Studies Centre for International Security Affairs (Cisa), Nairobi.