Jubilee is anxious about Raila's intention in its post-Uhuru succession plans

ODM leader Raila Odinga. "I am not in government, if I was in government I would have a specific title," he says. PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • It is quite possible that Raila won’t agree with Uhuru’s succession plan, and rocks the boat.
  • Raila used the same argument of forging national unity that he is using now when his NDP merged with Kanu in 2002.

Two things struck me from the goings-on after the Harambee House handshake.

One was ODM Senator James Orengo’s ham-fisted warning to other Nasa parties to keep off the engagement between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Opposition chief Raila Odinga.

The other were comments by an Amani National Congress party MP, whose name I can’t remember, that such handshakes should be open to others because, as he put it, everybody wants to join in the “eating” at the king’s table.

So, what could be the deal between Uhuru and Raila? There are two possibilities.

The joint secretariat the President agreed to form would be a harmless clearing house for “jobs for the boys” and a useful prop for Raila to grandstand.

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Its involvement in national policy and the daily running of government would not be contemplated or desired.

The other possibility, which to me is more likely, is that Raila will refuse to become a decoration and demand substantive political involvement.

This is precisely what many political players fear.

Those in Jubilee are frightened that he will meddle in Jubilee’s succession plan.

In many ways, Uhuru took a huge gamble. His choice of successor is more or less settled on William Ruto, a position which is unlikely to change – for now.

RAILA ODINGA
But a terse statement from the ODM headquarters telling off Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa and a coterie of other Coast MPs who had started a pro-Ruto chorus last weekend was hugely revealing.

A cryptic remark Raila himself made in Nyanza the same weekend that his MoU with the government was the “link” to Canaan is open to interpretation.

National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale, who carries water for Ruto, says the deal with Raila is not about changing Kenya’s governance structure.

Yet when somebody as close to Uhuru as the Speaker of the same House, Justin Muturi, intimates that he foresees some enabling legislation to accommodate the cohabitation, be on the alert that something significant could be afoot.

The abiding criticism against Raila is that he is not a team player, and is unpredictable.

That is what the likes of Senate Deputy Speaker Kithure Kindiki, a Ruto ally, are struggling to say.

GRAND SCHEME
It is quite possible that Raila won’t agree with Uhuru’s succession plan, and rocks the boat.

His ability to do that cannot be doubted. Raila used the same argument of forging national unity that he is using now when his NDP merged with Kanu in 2002.

However, his real ploy was to pressure Daniel arap Moi to name him his successor. When this did not happen, all hell broke loose.

There is some myth-making when people say Raila joined Kanu with the express intent to destroy it.

Matters took the unexpected turn they took because Moi refused to anoint him his successor.

Uhuru was very much at the centre of those events and knows very well the commotion Raila can cause if he is short-changed.

WILLIAM RUTO

Would Raila disorganise Jubilee unless he wanted to succeed Uhuru, or to help another claimant? Who would that candidate be?

It goes without saying that a very big bull has entered the Jubilee kraal and will start sniffing for mates, who for now are circling it very warily.

After the initial shock, Ruto has quickly adjusted to the new situation and instructed his minions like Senator Kipchumba Murkomen to give the ODM leader a hand of effusive, if insincere, welcome.

Orengo’s remark about unwanted suitors is the clearest indicator Raila does not wish his erstwhile Nasa co-principals to play any role in his cohabitation with Uhuru.

DEFEAT
Why? It could be the usual status issues where he doesn’t want to be equated to their level.

Or it could be he has not really gotten over his sulk over them giving his January 30 “swearing-in” a wide berth.

It all seems an exhausted Raila is simply throwing in the towel after playing his last cards. If you can’t beat them, join them.

That would happily close Jubilee’s chapter on Raila. I have a sneaking suspicion the plot will not end like this.

Warigi is a socio-political commentator [email protected]