Of Uhuru succession and the tricky war against corruption

The March 9, 2018 handshake between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga has thrown Kenya’s politics into a spin.

Four months down the line, it is hard to place a finger on what we have, for decades, known as the opposition. The country appears to be sliding back to the one party state.

While the terms and conditions of the handshake, in the main, remain a well-guarded secret between the two leaders, what one discerns is that Raila is not sitting pretty. This is contrasted by President Uhuru’s newly-found confidence and assertiveness.

RADICALISED

Raila appears unsure whether to retire from politics or to postpone the idea till after 2022.

His dilemma can both be understood and explained, especially when one considers his decades-long brand as a leading champion of reforms, coupled with the radicalised nature of his national constituency.

From the look of things, the path Raila chooses will be determined by how the ruling coalition, and especially the President, play their cards. Unfortunately, the cards to play seem to be in short supply precisely because Jubilee has its own internal succession battles.

CONFUSED

Since 2013 it has been assumed within Jubilee that Deputy President William Ruto would be Uhuru’s automatic successor. Things no longer look that straight forward. Anti-Ruto voices, especially from the Mount Kenya region, have grown louder and bolder in recent months, a fact that has jolted the DP’s Rift Valley base. Add to this the resumed grudge match between Ruto and Raila Odinga and our political trajectory gets even more confused.

Is Jubilee on the verge of implosion or the President and his Deputy are merely staging a war game for reasons only they understand for now? And is Raila knowingly or otherwise being roped into Jubilee’s 2022 succession matrix?

"CIVIL WAR"

To answer these questions, one has to listen to the anti-Ruto voices within Jubilee and reaction by his henchmen, coupled by Raila’s overt campaign against Ruto as unfit to rule Kenya.

Initially led by former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo, the anti-Ruto forces are now lining behind the first time Nyeri Town MP, Ngunjiri Wambugu.

The Rift Valley Nation will not take the challenge lying down, if reactions by MPs Oscar Sudi and Kipchumba Murkomen are anything to go by. It would be interesting to know what Ngunjiri and his cohorts know, especially given the fact that even Uhuru is yet to react to his anti-Ruto crusade.

Fuelling Jubilee’s “civil war” further is the President’s crusade against corruption.

KILLING JUBILEE

The loud opposition by the DP’s camp to the President’s directive for lifestyle audits will raised doubts about the will put to the test the coalition’s survival going to 2022.

Why the DP’s camp feels targeted by the war against corruption is the Sh10bn question. Things can only get nastier in the coming days as more scandals pop up.

Those in the know aver that the Head of State has chosen to prioritise his legacy, hence his aggressiveness against official corruption. The question is whether he is willing to carry this agenda to its logical conclusion without killing Jubilee from within.

BAD SUGAR

At the time of penning this piece, Leader of Majority in the National Assembly Aden Duale, was throwing punches on the floor of the House, accusing the Jubilee government of targeting sellers of the alleged bad sugar while leaving the real culprits, the importers, alone.

How a man who is officially number three in the country’s pecking order can hurl such accusations against his own government is mindboggling, and goes to further confirm that inside the Jubilee house, gloves are indeed off. Duale is in the Ruto camp.

His outburst tells us that the DP’s camp feels increasingly pushed to the wall and is ready to fight back, the consequences notwithstanding. The key question is: what if Jubilee unravels?

REFERENDUM

Even as he suffers the political blows, it is obvious that for now Ruto lacks a clear challenger come 2022. Jubilee is yet to identify a running mate leave alone a Ruto challenger, and Nasa is in a shambles.

Still, 2022 is too far to predict accurately at this point. When Raila says the Orange Democratic Movement will field a presidential candidate in 2022, it is a warning to DP Ruto not to take things for granted.

Things could go further south for the DP if the proposed referendum to expand the apex of the country’s Executive and effectively clip presidential powers comes to pass.

Mwalulu is a media and governance consultant. [email protected]