Opportunity will again bypass Western as a result of political disorganisation
Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula (left), and his Amani National Congress counterpart Musalia Mudavadi during a press conference at Bungoma Club in Bungoma County on March 25, 2018. PHOTO | JARED NYATAYA | NATION MEDIA GROUP
What you need to know:
Everybody says Wetang’ula’s political position is weak, but it is not too weak as some people suppose.
Wetang’ula’s misfortune is that he is confined in the same region with Musalia.
The main problem with Wetang’ula is that you can’t be sure if he is fighting for his own individual ambition, or has the political interests of his region as his first priority.
Meek and lazy as Mudavadi looks, Wetang’ula needs to accept that he can’t win a contest for regional supremacy against him
Moses Wetang’ula, the leader of Ford-Kenya, is a good lawyer, but not so good a politician. He has allowed himself to be too affected by his ouster as Senate Minority Leader by ODM senators, which he blames on Raila Odinga. He has not gotten over his anger about that incident.
He should move on. Everybody says Wetang’ula’s political position is weak, but it is not too weak as some people suppose. He has a clutch of seven MPs in the Western region, plus a governor in Bungoma (Wycliffe Wangamati) and another in Trans Nzoia (Patrick Khaemba). That puts him on a punching level with Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress (ANC), which has nine seats – and no governor.
Additionally, each party has got one elected senator, in Bungoma and Kakamega, respectively.
ELECTIVE POSTS
Wetang’ula’s misfortune is that he is confined in the same region with Musalia. Musalia may not have enough elective posts to claim control of Western, but many people agree that he has more gravitas than any other politician from the region. Even former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale seems to agree when comparing with his own party leader, Wetang’ula. (He recently let out a bad slip of the tongue when he said
Mudavadi would lead the unified ANC and Ford-Kenya, if it happens.) Anyway, the main problem with Wetang’ula is that you can’t be sure if he is fighting for his own individual ambition, or has the political interests of his region as his first priority.
Of the two men, I would pick Wetang’ula as the fighter. Mudavadi is forever faulted for his overly cautious and unimaginative approach. Wetang’ula is a puncher, yes, though he tries to punch at the heavyweight level where he doesn’t really belong. Meek and lazy as Mudavadi looks, Wetang’ula needs to accept that he can’t win a contest for regional supremacy against him. But that does not mean they can’t work together, or better still merge their two small parties, as indeed they are trying to do.
BIG BOYS
The lack of a coherent leadership in Western is what makes the region continue playing a secondary role at the national level.
The common view of the Big Boys (Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Raila) is that Western is disorganised. Musalia knows where the weakness is, but has found no formula of how to turn the situation to his advantage.
Until he finds one, he should forget for now the big dream he may have for 2022 – unless somebody decides, like Mwai Kibaki apparently had done in 2012, that Musalia would make a safe compromise.
Last week, the media reported that Musalia had a closed-door meeting with Raila, ostensibly in Kisumu. In that case he may have been put in the picture about the “handshake”.
If Musalia can’t be king, he can be kingmaker. Trouble is, his relationship with Raila has undergone too many heartaches before, the latest being how the “handshake” happened on March 9.
KINGMAKER
Yet, Musalia has no option of ignoring Raila, whose ODM is the biggest political party in Western. ODM has 10 MPs in the region, after Jubilee with 11 MPs. Additionally, ODM holds three governorships in the region – Kakamega, Busia and even in Musalia’s native Vihiga county. To make matters worse, Raila has effectively poached two MPs from Musalia’s ANC stable: Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, and a disputed ANC official who the party nominated to Parliament, Godfrey Osotsi.
Despite all that, Musalia fancies himself a stronger presidential contender than Raila. He knows Raila has too many powerful enemies than friends.
On Musalia’s part, there are few enemies to speak of. But it looks like he is not ready to play top level given the disorderly state his backyard is in.
HANDSHAKE
Truth be told, the Wiper party is better established in its Ukambani base, much as Kalonzo Musyoka is wondering why nobody is telling him what the “handshake” is all about.
Realistically, Kalonzo’s, Musalia’s and Wetang’ula’s best shot at the moment is to be in government at some level after the next election. It is no accident that they have supported constitutional changes to make the Executive more regionally representative.
