Why Raila, Ruto likely to relish a referendum fight
What you need to know:
- Mr Odinga’s latest push for a referendum appears inspired by the desire for a a presidential loser to be accommodated in government.
- Mr Ruto most likely sees an opportunity to rally the party support base behind him as well as try to capture new territory.
In all likelihood, Kenyans will vote in a constitutional referendum before the 2022 General Election.
The heavy political hitters who shape public opinion appear to have already settled on changing the eight-year-old Constitution.
INCENTIVES
It is noteworthy that Deputy President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga, who are expected to lead rival camps in the referendum, only hold divergent views on the finer details such as which offices should be disbanded, retained or created. Whenever the wider interests of the elite have converged on anything, they have tended to have their way. There are lots of incentives for each one of them to back the referendum as well.
'NO' CAMPAIGN
Mr Ruto, the presumptive presidential candidate of the ruling Jubilee Party in the next elections, most likely sees an opportunity to rally the party support base behind him as well as try to capture new territory.
In its current form, Jubilee is a hotchpotch of ethnic loyalties to Mr Ruto on the one hand, and President Uhuru Kenyatta on the other. With President Kenyatta serving his second and last term in office, his constituency might be up for grabs. Having been the de facto leader of the ‘NO’ campaign in the 2010 constitutional referendum, Mr Ruto also understands there is quite some clout to be gained from being in the front line, whichever way the vote goes.
TWO VICTORIES
This might also be the moment the Deputy President emerges out of his boss’ shadow and tries to shake off the vice-president curse. In Kenya, no one goes to a presidential contest carrying the baggage of having been Number Two and expects to win on first attempt.
But perhaps no one craves another referendum battle as badly as Mr Odinga, a veteran of the last two, who emerged victorious on both occasions.
FRONT-LINE ACTION
His successful steering of the Orange ‘No’ camp to defeat the so-called Wako Draft in 2005 gave him the momentum he needed to mount a strong challenge for presidency in 2007 — an election he and supporters believe he won but was robbed of victory. Another energetic front-line action on the campaign trail in the 2010 referendum emboldened his supporters to claim a lofty ‘father of the Constitution’ legacy for him.
FERTILE IMAGINATION
Although he won’t admit it publicly, Mr Odinga’s latest push for a referendum appears inspired by the desire for a Constitution that makes it possible for a presidential loser to be accommodated in government. Politicians affiliated to his party often talk about re-introducing the position of prime minister, harking back to the days of the grand coalition government in which the ODM leader shared power with then President Mwai Kibaki following the disputed election of 2007.
A pre-2022 referendum also offers Mr Ruto and Mr Odinga the platform to test their strengths against each other ahead of what is expected to be a fierce battle to succeed Mr Kenyatta.
The last bullet for Mr Odinga ni wewe — a figment of your fertile imagination!
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