Raila needs to juggle many balls well if he’s to succeed as regional diplomat

It was the Greek philosopher and poet Archilochus who said a fox knows many things, but a hedgehog knows one important thing. And it was Isaiah Berlin, A Russian-British political theorist and philosopher who, in a famous 1953 essay, attempted to apply the parable to real life.

That parable fascinates to this day and is applied to many disciplines, including business, politics and writing. In Berlin’s view, hedgehogs understand, predict and organise their world and that around them, through a single vision. Put simply, the hedgehog’s world is simple.

All it has to do to escape danger, for example, is to roll itself into a ball and bide its time. The fox’s world, on the other hand, is complex. It is replete with conflicting and contradicting ideas and, one challenge can be confronted and sorted out with multiple answers or by assorted strategies.

Kenya’s politics may have the singular objective of pursuit, attainment and maintenance of power, but the players and their strategies for the offices they seek are as varied as the politicians and seats available are many. So is Mr Raila Odinga a fox or a hedgehog?

HOUSE ARREST

One, I was fascinated by this question on reading that Mr Odinga held a seven-hour meeting with South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir in Juba and will this week meet his arch-enemy Dr Riek Machar who is under house arrest outside Johannesburg and distant from Juba’s peace process.

Two, at home Mr Odinga is involved in an expansive process in the Building Bridges Initiative with President Kenyatta which is aimed at fostering peace and uniting Kenyans; ending election-induced hatreds and hostilities; and promoting inclusivity and prosperity for all.

Three, in December 2010 Mr Odinga was appointed by the African Union, which body he lambasts for sitting on its hands when Africans fight over power, to bring electoral combatants Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara to the negotiating table after a disputed presidential run-off poll.

Four, I recalled that Mr Odinga was rejected by the Gbagbo side in the Cote d’Ivoire crisis because they claimed he had become a player in the imbroglio rather than an impartial arbiter. Before his appointment he had called for Gbagbo’s eviction from power by military force if necessary.

PEACE PROCESS

Last, I recalled that Kenyans on social media poured scorn on Mr Odinga’s appointment as AU Special Envoy to Cote d’Ivoire prompting Ghanaians to quip that they took it as an honour when former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan was picked to lead Kenya’s 2008 peace process.

So, did Mr Odinga learn from his rejection and failure in Cote d’Ivoire to make a success of his South Sudan task? Will he be consulting Mr Kalonzo Musyoka who, as Foreign Minister, played a significant role in the diplomacy that culminated in South Sudan’s secession and independence?

Second, has he found out why the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad) has been at the forefront of the peace process in South Sudan since hostilities broke out between Mr Kiir and Dr Machar in 2014 and there is no peace as yet even in the face of starvation?

Clearly with so much on his plate at home and abroad; obviously faced with complex issues home and away; definitely keen to leave a mark on the search for peace in Kenya and Sudan; and still desirous of becoming premier again, Mr Odinga must become a diplomatist.

TACTFUL

By that I mean the person described by www.dictionary.com as astute and tactful in any negotiation or relationship and by the Cambridge English Dictionary as skilled at dealing with difficult situations in a way that does not offend people. Not just one adept at diplospeak.

Back to the beginning. Is Mr Odinga a fox or a hedgehog? Hedgehogs will focus on one thing where foxes will deal with many issues; hedgehogs work within certain specific, unchanging parameters; foxes will experiment, pick and discard; and hedgehogs specialise, foxes diversify.

Mr Odinga’s many nicknames – Baba, Agwambo, Tinga, Chuma Maliet, Owad gi’Akinyi, to name but five, say he is a fox for he is many things to many people. His recent abrupt transition from uncompromising RESIST kingpin to peace-preaching presidential ally qualifies him as a fox.

In real life a fox is cunning and agile both in pursuit and escape. In real life septuagenarian Odinga now needs agile use of knowledge, thought and bridge-building diplomacy to realise regional peace and diadem of continental statesman. That’s no mean feat.

Opanga is a commentator with a bias for politics [email protected]