Raila succession in heart of Miguna drama

Senator James Orengo (left) and businessman Jimi Wanjigi arrive at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on February 20, 2018, a day after they were blocked from travelling to Zimbabwe. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Mr Orengo appears convinced that Mr Odinga’s time is up and seems to be positioning himself to be the next leader of the Luo.
  • The drama around Miguna provides a perfect excuse for the peace deal to collapse and for Mr Orengo and Mr Wanjigi to regain space around Mr Odinga.

In the wake of the second deportation of combative lawyer Miguna Miguna, questions have emerged on whether the peace deal between President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga will hold.

Miguna’s tribulations are being used to question the sincerity of President Kenyatta and his team.

While the President’s side has generally welcomed the handshake, some Luo MPs have been reluctant to vibrantly support the deal.

They have also criticised the State for Miguna’s tribulations and stayed silent as Mr Odinga’s supporters tear him apart, particularly on social media.

In the meantime, lawyers associated with Mr Odinga, starting with James Orengo, are standing with Miguna.

SUCCESSION

The developments have caused confusion around the country and particularly in Luoland.

This confusion is caused by one issue that nobody wants to talk about: Succession politics in Nyanza.

Mr Orengo appears convinced that Mr Odinga’s time is up and seems to be positioning himself to be the next leader of the Luo.

Mr Orengo seems to be positioning himself at the centre of Luo politics while at the same time casting himself as a close adviser and protector of Mr Odinga on the national stage.

ODM
Miguna, equally, seems to be creating drama to put himself at the centre of Luo politics with a view to succeeding the ODM leader.

This game has been going on for some time and the latest trigger is the unity deal.

Used to being consulted and being at the centre of every political decision Mr Odinga makes, Mr Orengo, the Siaya senator, is yet to accept that Mr Odinga pulled a monumental political move, through the handshake, without involving him.

Mr Orengo and his close associate, Mr Jimi Wanjigi, seem to be asking: Who is Raila consulting with lately and what does that mean for us?

This appears to have pushed the Siaya senator to chart his own path in a more overt manner.

For instance, soon after the handshake, he made moves that saw him dislodge Mr Moses Wetang’ula as Senate Minority Leader, against Mr Odinga’s wishes.

MINORITY LEADER

Knowledgeable sources have indicated that Mr Odinga vigorously, but unsuccessfully, tried to dissuade Mr Orengo from the move.

Consequently, Nasa co-principals Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Wetang’ula accused Mr Odinga of betrayal.

Mr Orengo, an experienced politician, must surely have known how his decision would muddy the waters for ODM, but he proceeded with it all the same.

In this, Mr Orengo has an ally in Mr Wanjigi, another of Mr Odinga’s friends, who is smarting from the fact that he was kept in the dark about the peace deal.

The two, Mr Orengo and Mr Wanjigi, would, therefore, not mind the deal collapsing.

The Miguna saga is tied to the succession project in at least two ways.

PEACE DEAL

First, the drama and the outpouring of emotions make Mr Odinga and the President look bad.

It makes the ODM leader seem to have been short-changed in the deal, never mind that the whole project has actually not even been launched and is only about three weeks old.

The drama around Miguna provides a perfect excuse for the peace deal to collapse and for Mr Orengo and Mr Wanjigi to regain space around Mr Odinga.

A few days to Miguna’s arrival in Nairobi, Mr Orengo made conditions that had to be met before the Uhuru-Raila deal could take off.

Among the conditions was that those who lost relatives in political violence last year be compensated before implementation of the peace deal.

COMPENSATION
He made these demands well aware that in the previous week, Mr Odinga had himself visited Kisumu and assured residents that his talks with the President included possible compensation for victims and the dropping of cases against MPs, as well as returning of their security, which had been withdrawn.

Mr Orengo also spoke of a heroic welcome for Miguna who was to arrive later in the week.

Miguna has, therefore, become a rallying ground for the senator to cleverly show that he cares and that the peace deal is worth nothing, while at the same time being seen to be acting on Mr Odinga’s instructions to save Miguna.

LEGACY
This was despite the fact that at several meetings with Luo MPs, Mr Odinga had called for a change of tack, appealing to the legislators to drop hardline positions in favour of politics of engagement.

The ODM leader reportedly held at least four meetings with Luo leaders where he urged restraint and appealed to them to give him the benefit of doubt.

On his part, Miguna has called Mr Odinga names following the peace deal, falling very short of declaring himself the new leader of the Luo.

Observers believe that health allowing, Mr Odinga will remain an important player in Kenyan politics at least for another decade.

Should the deal stick and the community begins to see its benefits while he champions the national agenda spelt out in the deal with Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga’s legacy will get an unprecedented high.

This won’t be good news to politicians angling to succeed him.

Mr Jura is a political activist.